🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Sir Mohamed]

Bit off topic, but is it known that Merkel plans to do after leaving office? I still find it stunning that this is the 1st time since WWII a chancellor voluntarily retires from office.

[Sir Mohamed]

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

[Sir Mohamed]

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.

I'm aware the largest party doesn't automatically get the chancellorship. My question was more which govt was more likely in that event? I'd assume Greens would prefer a coalition with SPD and FDP if they get the chancellor and even if SPD was entitled to the position. But I thought FDP was more right-leaning?

[Sir Mohamed]

CDU ending up in 3rd place behind SPD and Greens (or vise versa) would be hilarious. While they're one of the lesser bad conservative parties, they've ruled way too long in Germany.

[Sir Mohamed]

What makes Laschet so unpopular that he's apparently tanking that much? I thought he was kind of a Merkel clone and therefore popular?

[Sir Mohamed]

What? The Social Democrats are surging big league? And I thought the CDU would rule Germany forever. Is this just because Mr. Laschet is a horrible candidate?

[Sir Mohamed]

Whoa, an actual SPD victory would be a good sign for the center-left in all of Europe, wouldn't it? Just not sure whether that lasts to late Sept. when the election is held.

What would happen to CDU with an actual 3rd place finish or 2nd place at 20/21%? I suppose a lot of heads would roll (politically spoken)?

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there any plausible scenario the SPD can still blow this? Or a "last card" CDU can play? If early voting or VBM starts, I would think the clock is ticking?

I hope the polls don't change much any more and as far as I know European polls are more reliable than for US elections. For the CDU to come in 1st, the polls need to off by 5 pts on average as we speak. That's unlikely, isn't it?

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the most likely govt coalitions now that a minority govt is de facto not happening? The difficulty seems to be that one party has to "switch sides" since 3 partners are certainly required. Either Grune joins a CDU/FDP cabinet or FDP becomes part of a SPD/Grune govt. Option 1 is possibly more likely, even if the CDU ends up 2nd?
 
Never expected this race to become so interesting in the closing weeks. That said, I'm still afraid a ton of CDU voters holding their noses and vote for the party in the last second, denying SPD the victory are polls are indicating. That said, the stability confirms SPD momentum is real.

[Sir Mohamed]

Which coalition is now most likely to happen? My reading is FDP wants with the Union and Grune with SPD. One of them has to blink, potentially in exchange for lots of concessions?

I find it kind of hilarious Mr. Lashet hasn't resigned after losing 9 pts. CDU was just strong because of Merkel and they just expected to win, didn't they?

[Sir Mohamed]

Question for European/German posters: What's your take we'll see a new govt? End of the year? Later? Or even sooner? Seems like this isn't just a question of negotiating a coalition treaty, various party "institutions" or even all members need to finally approve any agreement?

And another question: Did any potential govt get a majority in East Germany? Seems like the strong showing of Afd there is reason for concern and any govt just elected by the more populous West may not win back voters that previously voted for non-extreme parties. That said, I'm not even sure that would work either, since Merkel is from the East and seems to be very unpopular there since 2015 happened.

[Sir Mohamed]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

[Sir Mohamed]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

Which is of course self-defeating prophecy, cause it is clear Laschet himself, or at least his image, is a roadblock to Jamaica. The Union would need to find a credible alternative to actually make it work. However knifing him will not happen if it is viewed as a concession of defeat rather than a move to improve their position, and therefore Jamaica becomes even more distant.

Couldn't Lashet try to save himself by accepting the "junior role" in a grand coalition and take the vice chancellorship? That would also allow SPD to gain more leverage over the 2 smaller parties. It's always better to have another option. I know the electorate seems tired of grand coalitions, but as a tactical move, it wouldn't be that bad I guess?

[Sir Mohamed]

Do recent CDU developments mean any govt with a Christan Democratic chancellor is off the table? If Mr. Lashet is about to leave, it would be pretty bad optics to elect a chancellor that didn't run in the election as such. Even if that is technically legal.

[Sir Mohamed]

FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said that they're planning to wrap up the coalition negotiations until the end of November with the election and inauguration of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor intended for the week of December 6.

So Merkel narrowly misses to become longest serving chancellor ever?

[Sir Mohamed]

I find it astonishing that there are 736 members. That's for sure too much, but I'd trade the political system of Germany or most other European nations any day of the week with our system here.

[Sir Mohamed]

I find it astonishing that there are 736 members. That's for sure too much, but I'd trade the political system of Germany or most other European nations any day of the week with our system here.

It seems like a lot but the UK has 650 MPs with a population of about 65 million and Germany has 736 with a population of over 80 million - and Canada has 338 with a population of 38 million - so in terms of MP per capita its not unreasonable

Seems a little too much, either. I think the US House should have about 650 members. 500-550 seems more approriate for Germany and/or UK.

[Sir Mohamed]

End of an era. It's incredible how long Merkel has been in office. For sure she has influenced European and international politics to a large extent and despite some errors governed with calm and rationality.

I'm curious to see how the new cabinet will conduct itsself in the coming months and year. If successful, I think the 2021 election could be something like a realignment and lock CDU out of power for an equally long time that Merkel was at helm. Not sure Scholz will be chancellor that long; he could for sure hand the reigns over power to another SPD politician in 8 or 10 years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad, it seems like the 2021 election was pretty much a fluke. Why would voters want CDU back in power after they neglected many urgent problems for years?

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad, it seems like the 2021 election was pretty much a fluke. Why would voters want CDU back in power after they neglected many urgent needed problems?

Because the SPD - partially because of their actions, partially because of their inactions, and partially because of their poor communication - are getting blame from both those angry with Germany's Ukraine policy (too far to some & not doing enough to others) and those angry with the price increases that have accompanied Russia's war.

I'm afraid latter also explains why Afd seems on the rise again?

Fortunately the next election is 3 years away and things can change a lot between now and then.