🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

However, for some reason the FDP would still prefer the SPD as chancellor party as opposed to the Greens. Their General Secretary Volker Wissing, who twice negotiated the RLP-trafficlight coalition in 2016 and 2021 recently stated he can't imagine such a coalition under a Green chancellor. Now if the polling numbers hold up, it won't come to that.

I think that's mainly because the FDP doesn't want to validate or acknowledge the Greens' claim on the Chancellorship. At least not before the election that is. Keep in mind that the Greens currently have fewer seats than the FDP in the Bundestag and as traditional competitors for the 3rd place in elections they'd like to keep it that way.

[Blair]

How many people in the CSU will regret not going for Soder?

It struck me at the time as one of those baffling decisions that parties make for purely internal/petty/factional reasons- even back in March Laschet was hardly a strong choice.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

How many people in the CSU will regret not going for Soder?

It struck me at the time as one of those baffling decisions that parties make for purely internal/petty/factional reasons- even back in March Laschet was hardly a strong choice.

There are always elections that in hindsight seem to be worth losing, but that can only be determined in the future. As of right now, we know that many Union MPs are very disappointed and that the mood among Union party activists is very bad.

[President Johnson]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

That was the floor until now, Adenauer was elected with 31 percent in 1949.

What we're seeing is the "Europeanization" of the partisan landscape. The days of the two major parties getting 35+% or even over 40% are pretty much over. As in other countries, we'll probably see governing coalitions with three partners and the chancellor's party just being in the 20s.

I'd don't like that and wish we'd be back to SPD and CDU/CSU competeting for first place in the upper 30s or low 40s since that was not just a more stable landscape, people could actually better determine what happened to their vote. For example in 2017, Linke and AfD were the only certain anti-Merkel votes. Anyone who wanted Merkel out and not to vote for either of these couldn't be certain their vote wouldn't ultimately keep her in power.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

[Astatine]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

That was the floor until now, Adenauer was elected with 31 percent in 1949.

What we're seeing is the "Europeanization" of the partisan landscape. The days of the two major parties getting 35+% or even over 40% are pretty much over. As in other countries, we'll probably see governing coalitions with three partners and the chancellor's party just being in the 20s.

I'd don't like that and wish we'd be back to SPD and CDU/CSU competeting for first place in the upper 30s or low 40s since that was not just a more stable landscape, people could actually better determine what happened to their vote. For example in 2017, Linke and AfD were the only certain anti-Merkel votes. Anyone who wanted Merkel out and not to vote for either of these couldn't be certain their vote wouldn't ultimately keep her in power.

One could describe the most recent developments in Germany's partisan landscape as sort of "asymmetric depolarization", at least on federal level. While one might intuitively guess that Germany would follow the general international trends of an increasingly polarized political environment, it should be noted that this tendency exists on the level of "(Linke)/SPD/Greens/FDP/Union" vs. AfD, but on the other hand, the parties within the "democratic bloc" were forced to overcome partisan division for the stake of political stability and governability (although the parties developed to that on themselves, too).

20 years ago, maybe even just a decade ago (at least before Fukushima), speculations about the possibility of a Black-Green or Jamaica coalition, or even Red-Red-Green and Traffic light on federal level would've been considered an absolute insanity. The bloc division between the black-yellow and red-green camp is a thing of the past by now.

[Astatine]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

Dk man, I wouldn't want to live under a system where a party gets 77 % of the seats with 33 % of the vote.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

Dk man, I wouldn't want to live under a system where a party gets 77 % of the seats with 33 % of the vote.

Needless to say, if the Bundestag were purely FPTP the voting patterns would be very different.

[Alcibiades]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is an example for any other country, let alone Germany - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

[Lechasseur]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is an example for any other country, let alone Germany - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

Yeah despite its flaws, I still think PR's the best system

And I agree with you that Germany has generally had better and more stable governance than the UK

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is in any way better than Germany’s - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

I don't think the electoral system has been the main reason for that - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it strikes me that in Germany there is quite a lot of consensus on the major issues/broad direction of the country. We were able to call an election 2019 to resolve much of that (something which wouldn't have been possible if we had a codified constitution with the FTPA, though that's a slightly different matter). If there were an issue like Brexit splitting Germany in half, I don't think the system would deal that well with it - just look at what small factions/parties (notably the Northern Irish) were able to do and scale that up to a German system with six "important" parties. Importantly, the voters were able to make a clear break with the past in 2019 (albeit by voting for the same party) which is not possible in a system which makes it difficult to vote a government out. Aside from usually unstable hung parliaments, you know you're going to get a Labour/Tory government in the UK. Who knows what strange coalition will come out of the German election? If I vote Labour I can be reasonably confident I'm voting for a Labour government*, whereas if I voted SPD in 2017 (or now?), how do I know whether they're going to go into government with the right (CDU) or far-left (Linke)?

*The SNP makes this difficult, but that's sort of a "break" in the FPTP system.

[Lechasseur]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

[Astatine]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

Dk man, I wouldn't want to live under a system where a party gets 77 % of the seats with 33 % of the vote.

Needless to say, if the Bundestag were purely FPTP the voting patterns would be very different.

There were actually plans to introduce FPTP in the 1960s - because CDU/CSU wanted to punish the Liberals for leaving the black-yellow coalition in 1966. The SPD only didn't agree on that option because the FDP flirted with a social-liberal coalition, that eventually became reality in 1969.

FPTP would've excluded the possibility of any other party emerging but CDU/CSU and SPD - Germans are and have always been somewhat more bound to parties than individuals anyways, at least in the federal Republic. One can disagree with the FDP as much as possible, but they contributed a lot to societal progress in the social-liberal era that would've probably taken way more years to become reality in a bipartisan system. Same with the Green party.

I'd take a multi-party system with coalitions as standard over FPTP with absolute majority governments anytime, although I'd like to see some more pragmatism such as in Nordic countries, where minority governments are the standard.

[Alcibiades]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is in any way better than Germany’s - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

I don't think the electoral system has been the main reason for that - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it strikes me that in Germany there is quite a lot of consensus on the major issues/broad direction of the country. We were able to call an election 2019 to resolve much of that (something which wouldn't have been possible if we had a codified constitution with the FTPA, though that's a slightly different matter). If there were an issue like Brexit splitting Germany in half, I don't think the system would deal that well with it - just look at what small factions/parties (notably the Northern Irish) were able to do and scale that up to a German system with six "important" parties. Importantly, the voters were able to make a clear break with the past in 2019 (albeit by voting for the same party) which is not possible in a system which makes it difficult to vote a government out. Aside from usually unstable hung parliaments, you know you're going to get a Labour/Tory government in the UK. Who knows what strange coalition will come out of the German election? If I vote Labour I can be reasonably confident I'm voting for a Labour government*, whereas if I voted SPD in 2017 (or now?), how do I know whether they're going to go into government with the right (CDU) or far-left (Linke)?

*The SNP makes this difficult, but that's sort of a "break" in the FPTP system.

I don’t want to veer this thread off-topic and turn it into a debate on electoral systems, so all I will say for now is that your post seems to be neglecting the important fact that a majority of British voters did not want a Tory government in 2019 (and in fact a greater number voted for nominally-pro second referendum parties).

[Geoffrey Howe]

I don’t want to veer this thread off-topic and turn it into a debate on electoral systems, so all I will say for now is that your post seems to be neglecting the important fact that a majority of British voters did not want a Tory government in 2019 (and in fact a greater number voted for nominally-pro second referendum parties).

I'll leave it here by saying that it's rather difficult to get >50% to support any party, and an electoral system has to deal with this fact while tending to produce stable governments. If Lib Dem voters had cared enough about blocking the Tories, they could have voted differently...

[buritobr]

Would the Grüne be polling better if the Spitzenkandidat were Robert Habeck?
It would be a good election for the Greens. They are polling well since the end of 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election
Many people don't want the Volksparteien, but they are looking for someone not as right-wing as the AfD and not as left-wing as the Linke.
After the pandemic, climate change will become the world's most important issue, and the transition to non-CO2 energy sources became a hot topic.
The flood in Germany in July damaged CDU and raised the awarness about problems related to environment.

Annalena Baerbock looked like a strong competitor, but she had some glass ceiling. Couldn't she have imagined that false information in a CV and plagiarism would be perceived during the campaign? Did she think that she could hide these problems forever?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Would the Grüne be polling better if the Spitzenkandidat were Robert Habeck?

That has been suggested a number of times now, though I don't necessarily agree with that. There is a reason why the Greens chose Baerbock as chancellor candidate in April, and it is not just because she is a woman. Habeck was always seen as more charismatic, but many Greens did not trust him to take up the role as chancellor candidate because he has some chaotic energy surrounding himself. I remember reading an article which quoted an anonymous member of the Greens' party executive committee stating that they could expect a result of 19-17% with Bearbock and a result of 24-14% with Habeck.
He is and talks differently than other politicians, which can be a pro but also a heavy con. His speeches give off the impression of having enormous gravitas but they are often philosophical and, policy-wise, not very concrete. I think in April, there was a general impression among the Greens that Habeck would not stand the job because he proved a number of times that he is not very confident on policy details when pressured (In fact, there were a few interviews of Habeck that some Greens found outright embarrassing). There is a very telling thing Baerbock said in a joint interview about the duo: "We're just different in some aspects. He knows ... chicken, pigs, milking cows. I know international law."
Also, I think I remember that Habeck was criticized by some for being very attentive with his public image, which some interpreted as arrogance. All said, I think it is very easy to shift the blame to Baerbock and to make the assumption that anyone else could have done better, but I think that there  is a real possibility that Habeck could do worse. Scholz could easily spin the match Laschet - Habeck - Scholz in his favor as a policy expert running against two clowns. Habeck would have to undergo tedious prep sessions before the televised debate with Scholz. For all of his flaws, Scholz knows what the has to know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if the election ends up as a comparative disappointment for the Greens considering some periods of earlier polling, it will still certainly be their best ever federal election and they will still have a decent shot at doubling their vote share from last time round. Not really circumstances in which recrimination would be particularly appropriate...

[President Johnson]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

Wait, you're rooting for the SPD now? I thought you supported Les Republicains in France?

[crals]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is in any way better than Germany’s - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

I don't think the electoral system has been the main reason for that - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it strikes me that in Germany there is quite a lot of consensus on the major issues/broad direction of the country. We were able to call an election 2019 to resolve much of that (something which wouldn't have been possible if we had a codified constitution with the FTPA, though that's a slightly different matter). If there were an issue like Brexit splitting Germany in half, I don't think the system would deal that well with it - just look at what small factions/parties (notably the Northern Irish) were able to do and scale that up to a German system with six "important" parties. Importantly, the voters were able to make a clear break with the past in 2019 (albeit by voting for the same party) which is not possible in a system which makes it difficult to vote a government out. Aside from usually unstable hung parliaments, you know you're going to get a Labour/Tory government in the UK. Who knows what strange coalition will come out of the German election? If I vote Labour I can be reasonably confident I'm voting for a Labour government*, whereas if I voted SPD in 2017 (or now?), how do I know whether they're going to go into government with the right (CDU) or far-left (Linke)?

*The SNP makes this difficult, but that's sort of a "break" in the FPTP system.

But isn't that partly because a PR system encourages consensus while a FPTO one encourages more adversarial politics?

[President Johnson]

Another day, another poll, another tie:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1429870551695306755

[Geoffrey Howe]

But isn't that partly because a PR system encourages consensus while a FPTO one encourages more adversarial politics?

No? A PR system encourages factionalism and fracture. I'm not knowledgeable about German political culture, but it seems to me that one of the main reasons for the above is simply that Germany is doing well as a country. Anyway, FPTP requires you to form broad church parties.

This isn't really the place to discuss the merits of PR though.

[Boobs]

If the CDU “church” was any broader, it’d have a minaret and a golden Buddha.

[mileslunn]

With SPD rising, how likely is it that Scholz becomes next chancellor?  I presume Laschet is still favoured.  Also of coalitions seems unlikely a two party will be feasible and probably a three party so any guesses on which are most likely?

[Astatine]

With SPD rising, how likely is it that Scholz becomes next chancellor?  I presume Laschet is still favoured.  Also of coalitions seems unlikely a two party will be feasible and probably a three party so any guesses on which are most likely?

Regarding coalitions:

1. Jamaica (Union/Greens/FDP) - If CDU/CSU ends up being largest party, Jamaica would probably the way to go. It seems to be the only option as of now under which Laschet can become Chancellor. The Liberals will definitely prefer it over a traffic light coalition, while the Greens might be more hesitant about that option. If the SPD comes first and red-red-green is possible, then the Greens might even completely pull out of any negotiations with the Union as it would be quite clear that the voters definitely wouldn't want another CDU/CSU term.

2. Traffic light (SPD/Greens/FDP) - The Liberals are quite reluctant when it comes to red-green-yellow. Remember that most of their electorate are not FDP voters for the sake of liberalism, but rather disaffected CDU/CSU voters who are dissatisfied about their preferred party. If the SPD ends up being first and red-red-green is the only viable alternative (besides Jamaica), that will put a lot of pressure on the Free Democrats. They risk losing much of their borrowed electorate, but on the other hand, them pulling out of the Jamaica negotiations in 2017 was not overwhelmingly perceived well (although it might have saved them in the long term), and if they did it again and R2G is the only other option, they risk much of their credibility and the centrist to center-left voters.

3. R2G (SPD/Greens/Linke) - Not really Scholz' preferred option because the Left still seems to be somewhat unreliable as coalition partner. Still, the Green base would likely prefer this coalition over Jamaica. A weakened Linke would reduce the amount of the demands the party could make, especially in the area of foreign policy.

4. Germany (Union/SPD/FDP) - Virtually no chance of happening. While this would obviously be the preferred choice for the FDP since the Green party would be shunned out of government, the SPD really wants CDU/CSU in the opposition. Only chance I see that happening is if the SPD becomes largest party and CDU/CSU is still desperate to govern.

5. Kenya (Union/SPD/Greens) - Nah, not gonna happen.

6. Bahamas (Union/FDP/AfD) - Don't even think about it.

Besides, let's include some two party coalitions that are quite unlikely arithmetically as of now, but let's assume they'd get enough seats:

1. Red-Green (SPD/Greens) - Obviously the preferred choice of both parties. No annoying third partner that's too much pro-free market, or let alone unreliable.

2. Black-Green (Union/Greens) - The default coalition if you had asked me in Summer or beginning of 2020. Greens would rather be with the SPD, but depending on the result (this is the most unpredictable election in decades), there's a chance we'd see Black-Green.

3. GroKo (Union/SPD) - Magic, magic, the incumbent coalition that everyone thought would be voted out receives a majority again. But they wouldn't do it again. The only way another GroKo could emerge - assuming a majority is possible - is if the SPD leads it, FDP doesn't want a traffic light, R2G doesn't have a majority and Greens refuse to get into Jamaica.