🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Boobs]

AKK: Miss me yet?

[Astatine]

AKK: Miss me yet?

Actually a good question whether she'd fare better than Laschet now. I might be biased towards "my" former Minister-President, but I'd say: yes.

If AKK had become Chancellor candidate, that would've meant that she could somehow rally CDU and CSU behind her candidacy. When she was General Secretary, the once strained relationship between CDU and CSU improved significantly, so I wouldn't be so sure that Söder would have let the whole nomination process escalate as he did with Laschet.

AKK also would've had more time to improve her poor standing in the polls, unlike Laschet whose time is running out rapidly. Under her leadership, CDU/CSU's absolute low were 24 % and Laschet managed to beat that.
I also think she would have had the advantage of being more likeable than Laschet, and I believe she's more self-reflected than he is (...which actually can be seen in her resignation).

Her performance as Defense Minister has actually been relatively solid compared to her predecessors (and to her CDU/CSU cabinet collagues), from what I have heard she genuinely cares about the Military and is quite popular among soldiers. Her reaction towards the whole situation in Afghanistan was received relatively well. But then again, who knows how it all would've played out if the situation happened and she were Chancellor candidate - That could've been a full make or break moment for her (damaged) reputation. There are no recent polls, but I believe her approval has at least somewhat recovered from her gaffe-prone tenure as CDU Leader.

But it seems like she is happy with her current position and would like to keep it. If CDU/CSU somehow leads the government again, I guess she'd be one of the few ministers to return to the Cabinet.

She could be the victim of an SPD victory in September, because depending on district results, it's possible she might not make it into the Bundestag - A truly tragic figure if that comes true, because I believe she genuinely tried. But politics is not a fair game.

[DL]

Don’t high profile candidates who lose their direct seats often still get seated as list members?

[Astatine]

Don’t high profile candidates who lose their direct seats often still get seated as list members?

Yeah, she's top candidate in Saarland, but she is running in the only district that was won by the SPD in 2017, although she could win thanks to some cross-over appeal.

Her issue is that Saarland "regularly" just sends 8 MPs to the Bundestag (4 thanks to districts). With a result of ~25 % in Saarland, CDU would get two seats. One district (St. Wendel) is probably gonna be kept by the CDU, while in another one (Saarlouis) Economy Minister Peter Altmaier is running against Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. So if CDU wins both districts, AKK would probably not make it. She has to hope on either winning Saarbrücken directly, or that the SPD wins 3 or 4 districts. Not impossible, but still a challenge.

[RGM2609]

Was she purposefully sent to the worst district available by CDU people wanting to sideline her or did she choose it herself?

[Lechasseur]

AKK: Miss me yet?

Actually a good question whether she'd fare better than Laschet now. I might be biased towards "my" former Minister-President, but I'd say: yes.

If AKK had become Chancellor candidate, that would've meant that she could somehow rally CDU and CSU behind her candidacy. When she was General Secretary, the once strained relationship between CDU and CSU improved significantly, so I wouldn't be so sure that Söder would have let the whole nomination process escalate as he did with Laschet.

AKK also would've had more time to improve her poor standing in the polls, unlike Laschet whose time is running out rapidly. Under her leadership, CDU/CSU's absolute low were 24 % and Laschet managed to beat that.
I also think she would have had the advantage of being more likeable than Laschet, and I believe she's more self-reflected than he is (...which actually can be seen in her resignation).

Her performance as Defense Minister has actually been relatively solid compared to her predecessors (and to her CDU/CSU cabinet collagues), from what I have heard she genuinely cares about the Military and is quite popular among soldiers. Her reaction towards the whole situation in Afghanistan was received relatively well. But then again, who knows how it all would've played out if the situation happened and she were Chancellor candidate - That could've been a full make or break moment for her (damaged) reputation. There are no recent polls, but I believe her approval has at least somewhat recovered from her gaffe-prone tenure as CDU Leader.

But it seems like she is happy with her current position and would like to keep it. If CDU/CSU somehow leads the government again, I guess she'd be one of the few ministers to return to the Cabinet.

She could be the victim of an SPD victory in September, because depending on district results, it's possible she might not make it into the Bundestag - A truly tragic figure if that comes true, because I believe she genuinely tried. But politics is not a fair game.

She may well be doing better but she's still a weak candidate, I think she'd still end up losing just like Laschet, just maybe with a smaller margin

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's sad how the seemingly most successful SPD Candidate and likely their next chancellor will have been the one who helped big banks steal billions of tax payer dollars and they will do it with full support of the SPD left-wing.

[Lechasseur]

Who are you referring to there?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Don’t high profile candidates who lose their direct seats often still get seated as list members?

People always love the idea of someone running for office until they're actually running for office.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Interestingly, most pundits think that this was a good night for Laschet and a solid night for Scholz. Very weird statement given the post-debate Forsa poll. This somehow worries me that the Forsa poll might have been a fluke, but this would not be the first time in this election cycle in which German political punditry--which is absolutely full of itself--makes wrong predictions.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Who are you referring to there?

https://www.archyde.com/olaf-scholz-in-the-hamburg-committee-of-inquiry-into-the-cum-ex-scandal-the-man-without-memories/
Or a summary from another forum

There's a tax on dividends payed out from holding company stock. Some institutions like banks are exempt from this tax. The practice is everyone pays it anyway, but those exempt can then ask for the money back.

By cleverly trading stocks at the right times it was possible to exploit the state's system of accounting and ask for money "back" that was never paid in the first place or get the once paid tax paid back multiple times. This trick was common and used to illegally extract 10 billion € from the German state. A similar trick (cum-cum) was used for another 20 billion.

For a long time people claimed this to be a legal loophole, but as I understand it, the courts ruled differently. This was not a bug in the law, but in enforcement.

Now Scholz is our current minister of finance, but this is interestingly not part of the story.

It was an earlier time (2016), where the cum-ex scandal broke and Scholz was the mayor of the city of Hamburg. During this time the financial administration of Hamburg was about to ask for some of the money back that was scammed from them. But they failed to do so. Scholz claims he had not been involved in this decision at all, it was the bureaucrats show.

Warburg, one particular bank, was a problem. They met with Scholz in person and gave him a letter asking for intervention. The letter claiming the matter to be of legal uncertainty, they were doing nothing illegal and also their bank would have to close down, if they had to pay the money (back).

Scholz did not comment officially, but did not ignore it either. Instead he redirect the letter to Tschentscher, the city's "finance senator" at the time (and mayor today). Tschentscher is a member of the SPD party, like Scholz.

From there it went to the finance bureau, where it was found with some passages underlined in green. Passages making arguments for the bank. So the claim is that city politics under Scholz did get involved helping the tax-scammer and that he may have been personally helping as well.

In 2020(?) Warburg had to pay the money back anyway. They did not collapse or close down.

[Mike88]

Interestingly, most pundits think that this was a good night for Laschet and a solid night for Scholz. Very weird statement given the post-debate Forsa poll. This somehow worries me that the Forsa poll might have been a fluke, but this would not be the first time in this election cycle in which German political punditry--which is absolutely full of itself--makes wrong predictions.

I think that is common in all countries. Pundits barely get one right because, at least that the case in my country, almost half of them are failed politicians who never won or achieve anything.

Anyway, there are still 3 debates left, one of them with the 6 parties. The last one is one 23 September, just 3 days before election date. Because of postal voting, this debate may be a bit worthless... When is the deadline to submit postal voting?

[Astatine]

Who are you referring to there?

https://www.archyde.com/olaf-scholz-in-the-hamburg-committee-of-inquiry-into-the-cum-ex-scandal-the-man-without-memories/
Or a summary from another forum

There's a tax on dividends payed out from holding company stock. Some institutions like banks are exempt from this tax. The practice is everyone pays it anyway, but those exempt can then ask for the money back.

By cleverly trading stocks at the right times it was possible to exploit the state's system of accounting and ask for money "back" that was never paid in the first place or get the once paid tax paid back multiple times. This trick was common and used to illegally extract 10 billion € from the German state. A similar trick (cum-cum) was used for another 20 billion.

For a long time people claimed this to be a legal loophole, but as I understand it, the courts ruled differently. This was not a bug in the law, but in enforcement.

Now Scholz is our current minister of finance, but this is interestingly not part of the story.

It was an earlier time (2016), where the cum-ex scandal broke and Scholz was the mayor of the city of Hamburg. During this time the financial administration of Hamburg was about to ask for some of the money back that was scammed from them. But they failed to do so. Scholz claims he had not been involved in this decision at all, it was the bureaucrats show.

Warburg, one particular bank, was a problem. They met with Scholz in person and gave him a letter asking for intervention. The letter claiming the matter to be of legal uncertainty, they were doing nothing illegal and also their bank would have to close down, if they had to pay the money (back).

Scholz did not comment officially, but did not ignore it either. Instead he redirect the letter to Tschentscher, the city's "finance senator" at the time (and mayor today). Tschentscher is a member of the SPD party, like Scholz.

From there it went to the finance bureau, where it was found with some passages underlined in green. Passages making arguments for the bank. So the claim is that city politics under Scholz did get involved helping the tax-scammer and that he may have been personally helping as well.

In 2020(?) Warburg had to pay the money back anyway. They did not collapse or close down.

The point with the "green highlighter" has been debunked already. German newspaper Spiegel tried to make a story out of it, but it came out a Department official was making the remarks. The claims of Scholz' personal involvement have not been solidified because of that story, it seemed more like a desperate attempt to find something against the current frontrunner.

The optics that he might have been involved are not good, but to put that into an electoral perspective: Nobody cares. The ones who always bring up the story wouldn't have voted for SPD anyway, but I really doubt this will be the scandal that could still derail Scholz' candidacy. The ambiguity around his involvement has been there for a while, nothing is proven nor disproved.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1432360372019793924?s=20

[DL]

This latest poll would give Red/Red/Green a clear majority (btw: is there a nickname for such a thing?). I realize that by all accounts Scholz will not want to do that and is more likely to go for a traffic light coalition, but presumably if the math is actually there for red-red-green - it puts even more pressure on the FDP to join a traffic light.

I know its not going to happen, but what would the role of Linke be if there was a RRD coalition? Since they will likely only get 6% or so of the vote they would likely only get a couple of cabinet portfolios and presumably they could minor portfolios where they could be kept out of trouble...(maybe give them agriculture and services for people with disabilities or something like that)

[Astatine]

This latest poll would give Red/Red/Green a clear majority (btw: is there a nickname for such a thing?). I realize that by all accounts Scholz will not want to do that and is more likely to go for a traffic light coalition, but presumably if the math is actually there for red-red-green - it puts even more pressure on the FDP to join a traffic light.

I know its not going to happen, but what would the role of Linke be if there was a RRD coalition? Since they will likely only get 6% or so of the vote they would likely only get a couple of cabinet portfolios and presumably they could minor portfolios where they could be kept out of trouble...(maybe give them agriculture and services for people with disabilities or something like that)

The nickname for Red-Red-Green is R2G.

They'd probably demand some higher taxes for the rich and tougher social reforms, but SPD and Greens would pressure them to keep out of foreign and defense policy. Possible Cabinet posts might be Labor and Social Affairs (although SPD would likely to keep those posts in all likelihood) and... Well besides, there isn't really a Department tailored for Linke. Maybe Economic Development, which is essentially the most useless portfolio?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1432360372019793924?s=20

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Possible Cabinet posts might be Labor and Social Affairs (although SPD would likely to keep those posts in all likelihood) and... Well besides, there isn't really a Department tailored for Linke. Maybe Economic Development, which is essentially the most useless portfolio?

Karliczek has made the education department the most useless portfolio, though it probably shouldn't be that way.

I could see the SPD and Greens concede traffic, health (though Karl Lauterbach should have it), and maybe justice and women/family to the Linke.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1432360372019793924?s=20

This. is. f-ing. insane.

Posters who know me are aware I rarely use the f-word in any sense. But here it's fully appropriate. Genosse Olaf has unleashed his bazooka again. This time for real.

And I repeat myself: THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL.

[DL]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

That's possible but that would seem like an obvious distraction. Besides, it's not quite normal in Germany to create new ministries. It's normal to add or swap tasks between ministries, but the number of ministers has not changed since 2009 and it was always something between 16 and 13 since Schröder I. Also, Scholz has on the campaign trail ridiculed competitors for "regularly trying to invent new ministries," so yeah, that's his stance on this issue.

[DL]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

That's possible but that would seem like an obvious distraction. Besides, it's not quite normal in Germany to create new ministries. It's normal to add or swap tasks between ministries, but the number of ministers has not changed since 2009 and it was always something between 16 and 13 since Schröder I. Also, Scholz has on the campaign trail ridiculed competitors for "regularly trying to invent new ministries," so yeah, that's his stance on this issue.

In France they are very big on creating these very grandiose sounding but nebulous cabinet portfolios (i.e. minister of social cohesion, minister of integration of the dispossessed, minister to address alienation among youth etc...)

[Lief 🗽]

Could the SPD and Greens not just have a minority coalition with Linke confidence/supply? Or are such arrangements verboten in German political culture?

[Astatine]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

Creating new portfolios would be a.) very bad optics (waste of taxpayer's money, the FDP wanted to abolish the Department of Economic Development in 2009... only to assume that office in a black-yellow coalition), unless it is really a crucial issue (Digital Affairs) b.) considered an affront against the Linke, since there are still some parts of the party who are critical towards a governing - They know they can't abolish NATO, but they won't sell themselves under value and c.) not even needed for such responsibilities, as there are State Secretaries (basically Deputy Ministers).

But it's not like such "useless" departments have never existed - There was a Department for Inner German Questions (abolished) and a Department for Nuclear Research (now Department of Education). The Minister of the Chancellory (basically "chief coordinator" within the government) is Minister for "Special Affairs" at the same time ("besondere Aufgaben" in German, which sounds lowkey ridiculous) - At some point in time, there were five Ministers for Special Affairs at the same time.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Could the SPD and Greens not just have a minority coalition with Linke confidence/supply? Or are such arrangements verboten in German political culture?

We don't really do minority governments.
There is one in Thuringia right now (Linke-SPD-Greens with a weird sort-of arrangement with the CDU) and there was one from 2010 to 2012 in NRW (SPD-Greens with confidence and supply from Linke). These are the two recent examples.
There has been none on the federal level and I'm not sure whether Olaf would want to experiment. In fact, he does not seem like a person who likes experiments.