🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[parochial boy]

The girls who sits next to me at work is Somali. Should I tell her she has been a net negative to the country?

[parochial boy]

Best campaign poster ever:

„These are the issues we are putting our emphasis on:“

Oh, the FDP put up a poster like that at Aarau station, with the tag "Was sind deine ideen?" and then a blank space where people could write their thoughts. Went well for about half a day until someone used up the entire poster to write "Kommunismus!"

Still cracks me up every time I see it.

[parochial boy]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

Apparently many young Afd branches are quite pissed about the Party not recognising and not wanting to fight climate change. (https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/Europawahl/beitraege/afd-kurswechsel-klimapolitik-junge-alternative-berlin.html) So i guess it is young 2017 Afd voters, who agree with the Afd on Immigration (i.e. Preservation of Germanys demographics), but who dont like their climate change policy (i.e. NOT preserving German Nature) switching to the greens.

that's an interesting point actually. Quite a few European hard-right parties seem to have moved towards importing US culture war style climate denial into their programmes; potentially as a response to other parties moving on to "their turf" in terms of immigration plus an overall movement in favour of the EU in terms of public opinion.

I'm not sure that's a wise tactic really, as climate denial doesn't really have much of a following in Europe. They had some polling to that effect here recently, and even 50% of SVP supporters think the party isn't doing enough to combat climate change - and the SVP is probably one of the less climate-sceptic Euro RWPP's.

[parochial boy]

I feel that people tend to glaze over the fact that the Danish Social Democrats actually, you know, lost vote share this year. Despite the advantages of opposition, unpopular incumbent and the like.

There is no a lot of genuine data that really objectively demonstrates that a "turn to the right" on immigration is at all helpful at maintaining centre-left parties' vote share (eg UK Labour, Swedish SAP, French PS, Austrian SPÖ have all tried it to some extent or another with essentially no electoral benefit). The risk is that all you do is legitimise radical right rhetoric and end up create more AFD voters, because why would anyone rationally choose the fake version over the authentic?

Like, the reason centre-left parties, the SPD chief among them, are struggling is as much down to changing sociological and economic structures; which Social Democrats haven't as yet been able to find a coherent response to. And fundamentally, copying the radical right's attitude to immigration isn't going to change the fact that the centre-left doesn't have solutions to the issues that modern western societies are dealing with.

[parochial boy]

I feel that people tend to glaze over the fact that the Danish Social Democrats actually, you know, lost vote share this year. Despite the advantages of opposition, unpopular incumbent and the like.

There is no a lot of genuine data that really objectively demonstrates that a "turn to the right" on immigration is at all helpful at maintaining centre-left parties' vote share (eg UK Labour, Swedish SAP, French PS, Austrian SPÖ have all tried it to some extent or another with essentially no electoral benefit). The risk is that all you do is legitimise radical right rhetoric and end up create more AFD voters, because why would anyone rationally choose the fake version over the authentic?

Like, the reason centre-left parties, the SPD chief among them, are struggling is as much down to changing sociological and economic structures; which Social Democrats haven't as yet been able to find a coherent response to. And fundamentally, copying the radical right's attitude to immigration isn't going to change the fact that the centre-left doesn't have solutions to the issues that modern western societies are dealing with.

Perhaps because this quite clearly was not a strategy centered on vote-maximizing, but a strategy based on winning office. My standard assumption during the term was actually that they would lose more and go to the low-twenties as socially liberal voters defected en masse. However, since the goal is winning office and governing with different majorities, it is fair to wait with the big conclusions before they have actually managed to govern succesfully this way during a term.

There is indeed a risk that just trying to copy other parties' immigration policies can just increase the salience of the topic and help anti-immigration parties. But if a party comes up with an authentic plan, it can reduce the salience for the necessary voters, who will no longer see the issue as a deal-breaker.

The whole topic of coalition building also needs to be re-thought by SPD. Are they willing to pursue minority-government with support by Linke, or are they just trying to become the biggest party in another grand coalition? Or can other options come into play while keeping a new strategy credible?

Maybe so, but that doesn't make pursuing that sort of strategy an example for the SPD or other SocDem parties which are in rather different situations as concerns trying to form governments. it certainly doesn't show that moving to the right on immigration is going to be some great saviour in terms of winning back suppoert - the same goes with the suggestions that the SPD moves to the left tbh. It's troubles go far deeper than anything that can be achieved by either copying Die Linke or AFD - and I would hope that someone in the party would be able to rise to that.

[parochial boy]

Mathematically, you've got Red-Red-Green working there. I know, I know, but still - when is the last time we had a poll showing that?

[parochial boy]

Mathematically, you've got Red-Red-Green Green-Red-Red working there. I know, I know, but still - when is the last time we had a poll showing that?

We always name the leading party first.

And that's not even true.

46-46 although I see Forsa have actualy had a couple showing that since the EU elections, so question still stands.

Being pedantic doesn't make you look clever you know

[parochial boy]

One of the more interesting policies that has been mooted is the idea of taxing investments in carbon emitting products, rather than taxing the consumption of them.

That way you would hopefully tax the real responsible people, as opposed to the end user - and also hopefully redirect investment away from high polluting products and towards things that would make it cheaper and easier to use cleaner energy

[parochial boy]

I would really hesitate to try and identify any sort of trend here. For every SPD or PVDA that may be embracing the perceived "economic interests" of their middle class electorates (to the degree it is even intentional, rather than incompetent) - there is a PSOE, Labour or SPS that is very much not doing so.

Very much the problem is, as has been pointed out, most European societies can no longer be meaningfully divided into "middle" and "working" class voter blocks. The structure and dynamics of class are far too complex and enmeshed with other forms of social identity for that to work any more.

[parochial boy]

Worth mentioning that the Bundesamt für Verfassungschutz has classified the AfD as suspected right-wing extremists, surely?

[parochial boy]

Thing is, at pretty much this time 4 years ago, the SPD had just named Schulz as Kanzlerkandidat and everyone was going "what if? this time? maybe". And, well, we know how that ended.

If things still look tight in July, then maybe - but for now, assume this is just a bump relating to the mask scandal and exacerbated by the two landtag elections and the stumbling Covid management; and come the summer these will be forgotten, the Union will have named Söder and things will be running as normal.

[parochial boy]

I reckon that advert portraying Baerbock as Moses literally a month before once in a lifetime flooding was a little bit of a faux pas, in retrospect.

[parochial boy]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

You can't talk about German drug policy without recognising that Cannabis ist kein Brokkoli

[parochial boy]

What's going on in Ravensburg that makes it a potential Green pickup there? The other ones in Baden-Württemberg are like Tübgingen and Freiburg, which make a lot more intuitive sense. But Ravensburg? there's like pig all there , no?

[parochial boy]

I watched a bit, thought Baerbock was decent, but almost everything I've seen and read in the last hour or so has been most positive about Scholz. Stereotypes aside, coming across as the cool head is probably a better fit for what people want at this particular time.

[parochial boy]

Whoa, an actual SPD victory would be a good sign for the center-left in all of Europe, wouldn't it? Just not sure whether that lasts to late Sept. when the election is held.

Scholzy's pronouncements so far seem to indicate that he is still signed up to the debt break and the EU fiscal stability pact (even, if - maybe - that's just playing to the audience). So in so far as the best practical thing for the wider European centre-left would be a reform of the EU's fiscal and monetary rules, then it doesn't seem especially likely, no.

I dare say that the overall picture for left of centre politics isn't as grim now as it was a couple of years ago, and a German SPD government would be a big symbolic win, rebalance the forces at the European level and so on - but the PVDA and the PS aren't going to come back from the dead just because their German sister party found someone competent to run for chancellor.

[parochial boy]

I did Wahl-o-mat too. Forgot the exact percentages but it was:

Linke
Greens
Die Partei
SPD
FDP (eww)
Union
AFD

By the way, you guys need to get rid of the eszett, it makes everything unreadable. Ich Weiß, lol.

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

More to the point would be them reaching people who wouldn't have voted at all anyway. And they've been getting enough attention to be reaching people beyond the normal youtuber-teeny crowd as well.

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

More to the point would be them reaching people who wouldn't have voted at all anyway. And they've been getting enough attention to be reaching people beyond the normal youtuber-teeny crowd as well.

In the European Elections, which have generally been received with far less attention than federal elections, that might have and likely was the case. CDU/CSU's disastrous and out-of-touch response to the video probably cost them the 30 % mark.

Nevertheless, I feel like in this election the effect of his videos on the outcome of this election are negligible. CDU/CSU's of... being passive this time makes far less harm than public discussions over how to react and publishing a PDF.

Their campaign gets derailed by other factors.

Well yeah, the 2019 came out of the blue and these ones not so much. But, then again, how many votes do you win from sticking up a poster of yourself in an open necked shirt or hanging around pedestrian zones handing out haribos (which sounds rather creepy, ahem)? That still doesn't stop candidates from doing so, and feeling that it is worthwhile doing so.

Most people aren't influenced into voting by one thing - even if Laschet laughing or whatever could be pinpointed as the very start of a trend, it was a continuation of many other things that kept that movement up. In that respect, a video coming out and picking up 5+ million views, that drives forward the narrative about the incompetence, or the double standards on the climate crisis may be one factor among many. But it is still a factor that is going to be relevant, in this case as part of the decision making process that someone might go through about whether to send their ballot back in or not.

[parochial boy]

The maps just posted by Clarko are really nice, thank you. One could discuss about the potential breadth of this year's SPD strength, but in all honesty most of all they seem to be goading one into a conversation about "What's the matter with Saxony?".

I'm obviously a dumb foreigner, and don't have much of use to add to Clarko's excellent post. But one thing I would say, is that something that gets brought up fairly often is the "valley of the clueless". As in, the  chunk of Saxony centred on Dresden where you couldn't pick up the West German broadcaster during the DDR days. The idea being, well, what the name says. The Eastern side of Saxony is generally stronger for the AfD these days, which might seem to be a testament to that to some degree. The same applies to some degree in Vorpommern, which is somewhat stronger for the AfD than Mecklenburg is.

I could also be talking out of my ass here, but from German friends and various cultural references, I also get the impression that there is a certain perception where Saxony is kind of East Germany, but turned up to 11. As in, it's the largest of the Neue Länder, but also has a very distinct local accent (probably the most easily identifiable after Bavarian); and I always get a feeling that all the clichés about Ossis apply even more so in Saxony. Various documentaries and comedy programmes and the like, when the subject is the East, always seem to wind up in Saxony; or to have a character speaking with an exaggerated Saxon accent as the representative "East German". Also you have Pegida being formed in Dresden as mentioned, but also the protests in Chemnitz, which probably has an even worse reputation for racism.

[parochial boy]

One thing I’ve seen remarked on a lot is how bad the dirt digging and the attack ads have been this year. CDU lashing out like a chained dog comes to mind

[parochial boy]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

[parochial boy]

Reading through this thread, I think people might be confusing "social liberal" as it is understood in the typical European political spectrum, and "socially liberal" as the term is typically used on here*. The FDP are not a social liberal party, at all, in so far as that tends to mean parties with a wet, economically centrist market-capitalism-but-with-a-functioning-welfare-state type. But they are broadly socially liberal in so far as wanting to legalise cannabis or relax the rules around gender-self-identification and the like.

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

* in much of Europe the term "Social" refers to things like welfare state and workers rights and redistribution. Not "social issues" as in atlas/US political speak

[parochial boy]

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

Cap and trade and letting the market solve climate change is common sense. The solution to climate change is reducing carbon emissions by creating a cap on carbon dioxide emissions. The issue is that to ensure our current standard of living we need to burn some carbon dioxide at least temporarliy.

By allowing the market to allocare permissison to burn carbon we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide in the most efficent manner possible with the least impact to our living standards. They are also the only pro-nuclear party in germany after teh CDU's heal faced turn following fukishima. They are the best party for the enviorment if that is what matters to you.

There already is an EU wide cap and trade scheme, and guess what, it has been a complete failure. Shockingly. Even if you did redesign it to work better it would still be completely insufficient. Climate change is something that is going to require proactive state action in building up renewables; subsidizing green technologies and green infrastructure (insulating houses, electric car charging points, investing in the railways* etc); as well as phasing out petrol cars or internal flights. All viable options that have been introduced elsewhere.

The FDPs policy that the market can do everything by itself is quite simply wishful thinking on the part of a party that is so unwilling to accept that it’s ideology’s failure that they can’t come up with a serious way to address the issue

*especially with regards to, say, moving freight transport from road to rail - something that the market is fundamentally not going to be unless the state drives thr process. Also something the CDU has been so allergic to doing that they let the Swiss spend bilions on a 60km long tunnel the alps and didn't even hold up to their much cheaper side of the bargain in upgrading the Rhine-side mainline. Stuff like this is why they aren't credible either