🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

Got my postal ballot today:



Still can't believe that Greens couldn't make it on the ballot in my very first federal election.
Their direct candidate is a professor of mine btw and I did a presentation about nuclear energy in one of his courses.

[Jackson Lee]

Got my postal ballot today:



Still can't believe that Greens couldn't make it on the ballot in my very first federal election.
Their direct candidate is a professor of mine btw and I did a presentation about nuclear energy in one of his courses.

Why no Greens on your ballot

[Astatine]

Why no Greens on your ballot

The Saar Greens basically f###ed up their nomination process - A very controversial guy whose local party has extraordinarily many members for its size got elected to the first place on the list, due to formal reasons (ineligible delegates voting in a list nomination process) the list had to be withdrawn, intra-party arbitration courts disqualified his local party from electing a new list (just shortly before the final deadline), and both the state and national electoral commissions didn't accept the new list due to major violation of basic democratic principles.

Won't matter a lot (Saarland account for like 1 % of nationwide votes, so the Greens might lose 0.1-0.2 % at max due to that), but the PR was brutal and the Green brand took some damage.

[palandio]

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

Because it really wasn't a popular move. Most people found it kind of weird.
The FDP is in a better position now, yes. But these are different times. I get the feeling that most people believe that the FDP has outgrown the 2017-version of itself--that the mishap of 2017 will not occur again because the FDP has learned. Lindner is very keen on conveying this exact message. The high polling numbers for the FDP are kind of a new phenomenon. In fact, the party was not well until early 2021.
Also, the general sentiment of the public is different, and supporting a government that would get rid of the Union could be a very popular move.

That's a take that I hear quite often but I think that it's slightly besides the point.

The FDP is the only "major" German party whose structural floor is below 5%. (For the CSU the 5% threshold doesn't matter because of the FPTP seats and the Left's reliable base is eroding, but still at slightly above 5%.) Since Westerwelle's times the FDP has been in opposition for all but four years and has drawn a lot of its electoral success from catering to people from center-left to right-wing who think that the other parties tend not to emphasize individual freedom enough when governing. The four years in government where not a success at all for the FDP. In 2017 the FDP got the impression that its intended role was just to prop up the long-desired Black-Green coalition without getting the chance to significantly influence government policy. On a personal level the problems seem to have occurred less with the Greens (differently from what one might have expected), but with the CSU. The FDP's decision was then to not take the risk and remain in its opposition role.

That's the FDP's problem. Now I think that we agree that the FDP should at some time break out of its current role and find a way to become an active, successful partner in federal governing coalitions. But I equally think that the FDP would be ill-advised to care too much about what is popular among people that would never consider voting for the FDP. I admit that a sizeable number of FDP sympathizers would have preferred to enter a Jamaica coalition in 2017, but there is a good argument that this would have been politically and electorally very risky. Staying in opposition at ca. 8-9% until COVID-19 came was the safer option, although on the long run maybe not.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

Because it really wasn't a popular move. Most people found it kind of weird.
The FDP is in a better position now, yes. But these are different times. I get the feeling that most people believe that the FDP has outgrown the 2017-version of itself--that the mishap of 2017 will not occur again because the FDP has learned. Lindner is very keen on conveying this exact message. The high polling numbers for the FDP are kind of a new phenomenon. In fact, the party was not well until early 2021.
Also, the general sentiment of the public is different, and supporting a government that would get rid of the Union could be a very popular move.

That's a take that I hear quite often but I think that it's slightly besides the point.

The FDP is the only "major" German party whose structural floor is below 5%. (For the CSU the 5% threshold doesn't matter because of the FPTP seats and the Left's reliable base is eroding, but still at slightly above 5%.) Since Westerwelle's times the FDP has been in opposition for all but four years and has drawn a lot of its electoral success from catering to people from center-left to right-wing who think that the other parties tend not to emphasize individual freedom enough when governing. The four years in government where not a success at all for the FDP. In 2017 the FDP got the impression that its intended role was just to prop up the long-desired Black-Green coalition without getting the chance to significantly influence government policy. On a personal level the problems seem to have occurred less with the Greens (differently from what one might have expected), but with the CSU. The FDP's decision was then to not take the risk and remain in its opposition role.

That's the FDP's problem. Now I think that we agree that the FDP should at some time break out of its current role and find a way to become an active, successful partner in federal governing coalitions. But I equally think that the FDP would be ill-advised to care too much about what is popular among people that would never consider voting for the FDP. I admit that a sizeable number of FDP sympathizers would have preferred to enter a Jamaica coalition in 2017, but there is a good argument that this would have been politically and electorally very risky. Staying in opposition at ca. 8-9% until COVID-19 came was the safer option, although on the long run maybe not.

Ah well, you're probably right about that. It's certainly true that the majority does not really care about the electoral prospects of the FDP, and that the FDP doesn't have to care about the majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose it would be the outcome demanded by the Banter Timeline.

[Jackson Lee]

Wahlrecht.de is out with a new poll from Saxony in the East.

And it shows a big shift to the SPD too.

For Germany, it would point to the SPD being at around 25% right now.



Vote for Chancellor:



Scholz is very popular with CDU voters:



https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen/sachsentrend-umfrage-august-100.html

[Alcibiades]

The SPD certainly look on track to have peaked at the right time, and hopefully their momentum can be sustained for another month until election day. Laschet, despite being ostensibly the Merkel continuity candidate, really seems to be a dreadful choice for a party for whom a large number of their voters have been attracted by their previous leader’s reputation for competence and seriousness - qualities which, to say the least, Laschet does not possess in the eyes of most of the electorate.

One thing I do wonder is whether, now he is very much in the limelight, the media will turn a more critical eye on Scholz like they have already done on Baerbock. Hopefully he proves scandal-proof.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

That was the floor until now, Adenauer was elected with 31 percent in 1949.

[Astatine]

The SPD certainly look on track to have peaked at the right time, and hopefully their momentum can be sustained for another month until election day. Laschet, despite being ostensibly the Merkel continuity candidate, really seems to be a dreadful choice for a party for whom a large number of their voters have been attracted by their previous leader’s reputation for competence and seriousness - qualities which, to say the least, Laschet does not possess in the eyes of most of the electorate.

One thing I do wonder is whether, now he is very much in the limelight, the media will turn a more critical eye on Scholz like they have already done on Baerbock. Hopefully he proves scandal-proof.

Scholz' advantage is that he has been in federal politics for a while and most voters have developed and solidified an opinion about him in the last three years already - He has constantly had good approval numbers.

The opposite was the case for Schulz (2017) and AKK (2019) as well as for Laschet and Baerbock now. Schulz and AKK were known to some degree when they became party leaders, but their initial, favorable numbers were highly volatile and saw a rapid decline after scandals and generally mediocre performances.

Sure, Laschet had built up some profile before becoming Chancellor candidate and Baerbock as well, but - unfortunately for them - their scandal-plagued first months in the national spotlight is what they will be perceived as for the time being - and there is not much of that left until the general election. I just don't see either of them recovering from that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about Laschet is that he really is a much more typical CDU politician than Merkel (right down, yes, to the fact that he's an obvious clown and oaf), and while Merkel's popularity was (is) undeniable, the idea that the CDU is a significantly more popular brand than the other parties was always a little untested even if it was often assumed.

[DL]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I think vote intention is still a bit of a lagging indicator. The SPD is steadily gaining ground - but when you see Scholz having such a huge lead on "preferred chancellor" - its just a matter of time before vote intention catches up to preferred chancellor. I will bet that the SPD will end up as the largest party - it it won't be all that close.

[Astatine]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I think vote intention is still a bit of a lagging indicator. The SPD is steadily gaining ground - but when you see Scholz having such a huge lead on "preferred chancellor" - its just a matter of time before vote intention catches up to preferred chancellor. I will bet that the SPD will end up as the largest party - it it won't be all that close.

Although Scholz is by far the most popular Chancellor candidate, I would take to add that his numbers in some Chancellor preference polls are way higher than in others due to the pollsters' different methodology and should be taken with some caution at least.

FGW (ZDF) and Infratest dimap (ARD) only include the three candidate options and "don't know", while INSA and Forsa offer poll participants to explicitly choose the option "none of the above/don't know".

This "minor difference" still has a notable effect if we compare the results for Chancellor preference (Scholz, Laschet, Baerbock, don't know/dk+NOTA) in the most recent polls:

Infratest (08/20): 41 % 16 % 12 % 31 %
Forsa (08/18): 29 % 12 % 15 % 44 %
INSA (08/15): 29 % 15 % 13 % 43 %
FGW (08/13): 44 % 21 % 16 % 19 %

[DL]

No matter how you ask the question, right now the proportion of Germans who think Scholz would make the best chancellor is wayyy higher than the proportion who say they would vote SPD - I think over the next Month those numbers will converge

[President Johnson]

Not a poll, but a prognosis from "Wahlcheck":

https://twitter.com/wahlcheckDE/status/1429022489984880643?s=19


Don't want to get ahead here as September 26 isn't there yet, but I actually can't believe this is actually happening. Ever since I follow national politics, I wholeheartedly supported the SPD and was disappointed I couldn't vote in 2009 because my 18th birthday was ten days late. I've been a SPD member since 2013 and engaged in every single campaign since that year, in federal, state and local elections. Together with my local SPD buddies I've talked to hundreds of people on the streets, stood in the rain to talk to voters and, heck yes, handed out free condoms in a wrapping with an SPD-print in front of a nightclub in the middle of the night to convince young people to get out and vote for Social Democrats. I've done all of that with pleasure and joy, but unlike a few successes at the municipal levels (a friend of mine is a council member) every state and especially federal election has been a disappointment. I've always wanted a SPD chancellor back in office and just months after the party was presumed irrelevant has actually a chance to move back into the chancellery. It would be so awesome.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831

The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

[Jackson Lee]

People are already voting, with the SPD peaking just at the right time:

‘Every day is election day.’ Rise in postal voting shifts German campaign dynamics.

Anyone who’s followed a general election in Germany knows the campaign’s fairly predictable heiße Phase (“hot phase”): Posters go up around the country, then top candidates meet for a primetime debate before crisscrossing the country in a frenzied bid to turn out as many voters as possible before election day.

This year, postal voting is already scrambling that rhythm.

The high number of mail-in ballots this year, which experts say could reach upwards of a third of the electorate, means campaign rallies and events are gearing up earlier, election night projections may be less accurate and candidate missteps at the wrong time could mean wasted votes for those casting them early.

In what’s proving to be an already unpredictable campaign for top chancellor candidates like the Christian Democrats’ Armin Laschet and the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock, the role of mail-in voting is another volatile factor to reckon with in the lead-up to election day.

Although there’s no set date on which voters can expect to receive their mail-in ballots, this week, according to Germany’s election officer (the Federal Returning Officer), marks the beginning of that period. Typically, the earliest a ballot would arrive is six weeks before the election (in this case, that would have been on August 16) — but in many cases, it will be more like five weeks (August 23). Either way, those choosing to vote by mail can start doing so within the next week or two, which means the major parties vying for the chancellery are running out of time with a large chunk of the electorate.

“In general, it will probably mean that the parties focus less on one big effort in the final stretch of the campaign, with big appearances and lots of events to try and mobilize voters in the last two weeks before Election Day,” said Daniel Hellmann, of the Institute of Parliamentary Research in Berlin. “Since there will definitely be many more people who vote by mail, the parties will also shift things forward and intensify their campaigns earlier.”

If state-level elections earlier this year are any indication, the increase in postal voting could indeed be big come September. In both Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, which voted in March, the proportion of voters who opted for a postal ballot more than doubled from the last election (from 21.1 percent to 51.5 percent in Baden-Württemberg, and from 30.6 percent to 66.5 percent in Rhineland-Palatinate).

https://www.politico.eu/article/postal-voting-germany-election-campaign/

[Jackson Lee]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

It would be interesting to see how a grand coalition led by the SPD would operate

[Jackson Lee]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

It would be interesting to see how a grand coalition led by the SPD would operate

Why should a party that’s about to lose 10% still be in government?

Also, Genosse Olaf wants to send the Union into opposition. It’s his primary goal.

So, a coalition of three winners will be Germany’s future.

[Jackson Lee]

Interview with Genosse Olaf:

Germany’s future Kanzler.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

I don't think that the gap between FDP and Greens is bigger than the one between FDP and SPD.

I mean FDP and SPD would have some issues with each other over social welfare, while Greens and SPD would primarily have some issues over climate protection.

Greens and FDP would legalize weed together though. In fact, a traffic light would probably the most pro-weed government in German history.

[President Johnson]

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

I don't think that the gap between FDP and Greens is bigger than the one between FDP and SPD.

I mean FDP and SPD would have some issues with each other over social welfare, while Greens and SPD would primarily have some issues over climate protection.

Greens and FDP would legalize weed together though. In fact, a traffic light would probably the most pro-weed government in German history.

However, for some reason the FDP would still prefer the SPD as chancellor party as opposed to the Greens. Their General Secretary Volker Wissing, who twice negotiated the RLP-trafficlight coalition in 2016 and 2021 recently stated he can't imagine such a coalition under a Green chancellor. Now if the polling numbers hold up, it won't come to that.

While I'd prefer a coalition with the FDP over Die Linke, Lindner would definitely demand a huge price from the SPD and the Greens. I just hope they don't agree to tax cuts for big business and pass a 12€ minimum wage as the SPD has promised (the Greens would support that as well).