🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1422948692911443970?s=19

Outlier for now, but other polls have already indicated that this race is getting closer.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Very interesting. I have seen larger swings in polling this year than what's between CDU, Grüne and SPD.

[parochial boy]

I reckon that advert portraying Baerbock as Moses literally a month before once in a lifetime flooding was a little bit of a faux pas, in retrospect.

[Astatine]

The federal election committee is constituting today to decide about appeals against rulings of the state election committees (9 in total), including the rejection of the lists of AfD in Bremen and Greens in Saarland, besides some minor corrections on the list such as the removal of candidates of some minor parties from their lists.

It would be highly unusual if the federal election committee overruled the respective state committee's decisions, although AfD's chances are probably slightly better than the Greens'. The AfD list was rejected for formal reasons mostly (that won't be fixed because the person who is supposed to sign a document is refusing to do so, but could be perceived a "minor mistake"), while the Green list was described as "extremely undemocratic" due to the legally unreasoned exclusion of delegates.

I still guess that both appeals will get rejected, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very interesting. I have seen larger swings in polling this year than what's between CDU, Grüne and SPD.

Maybe there will be a poll putting the SPD in clear second place soon?

[Astatine]

The federal election committee granted the AfD's appeal to their exclusion from the ballot in Bremen (same with Free Voters in Bremen btw, both were initially barred from running for formal reasons), while the Greens are officially out in Saarland.

The Greens cannot appeal this decision until after the election. In theory, the whole federal election could be overruled if the appeal to the Constitutional Court were to be successful, but it is neither granted the Greens want to go that far nor is there a legitimate chance the appeal would succeed.

My home state is really... special.

[Sir Mohamed]

CDU ending up in 3rd place behind SPD and Greens (or vise versa) would be hilarious. While they're one of the lesser bad conservative parties, they've ruled way too long in Germany.

[President Johnson]

New ARD poll, SPD surging and Genosse Olaf trouncing Laschet and Baerbock in chancellor preference. 29% are still undecided which party to vote for. So if we play our cards right and Laschet continues to stumble, Chancellor Scholz is still possible.





https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2711.html

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The federal election committee granted the AfD's appeal to their exclusion from the ballot in Bremen (same with Free Voters in Bremen btw, both were initially barred from running for formal reasons), while the Greens are officially out in Saarland.

The Greens cannot appeal this decision until after the election. In theory, the whole federal election could be overruled if the appeal to the Constitutional Court were to be successful, but it is neither granted the Greens want to go that far nor is there a legitimate chance the appeal would succeed.

My home state is really... special.

Saarland's election results could surely be very interesting this year. I'd very much like to see whether Green voters will even bother going to the polls--which I think is likely because the Greens have probably the most educated electorate--and what their second preferences are.

CDU ending up in 3rd place behind SPD and Greens (or vise versa) would be hilarious. While they're one of the lesser bad conservative parties, they've ruled way too long in Germany.

The CDU has somehow managed to resist this rightward shift which conservative parties have seen in the last years and it has not talked too much about cultural issues (yet). But they have basically no political goals and are the major roadblock for any necessary political change in Germany.

[Astatine]

The federal election committee granted the AfD's appeal to their exclusion from the ballot in Bremen (same with Free Voters in Bremen btw, both were initially barred from running for formal reasons), while the Greens are officially out in Saarland.

The Greens cannot appeal this decision until after the election. In theory, the whole federal election could be overruled if the appeal to the Constitutional Court were to be successful, but it is neither granted the Greens want to go that far nor is there a legitimate chance the appeal would succeed.

My home state is really... special.

Saarland's election results could surely be very interesting this year. I'd very much like to see whether Green voters will even bother going to the polls--which I think is likely because the Greens have probably the most educated electorate--and what their second preferences are.

It will also be interesting to see how the district vote for the Greens will develop. Potentially, there could be at least some voters who might not be too invested into politics to tell the difference between district and proportional vote but lean Green and might just end up voting for the respective Green district candidate... which would essentially be a wasted vote and could be crucial in District 296 which was decided by <1 % in 2017. 

The result for the Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP), who are fringe eco-cons with esoteric tendencies, could also be disproportionately high. ÖDP never had strong local representation here, but another fringe small party with which ÖDP used to ally some years ago (Family Party) did get up to 3 % in state elections here. ÖDP has no municipal seats at all in Saarland (not accounting for some loosely cooperating voter group in a small town), but some political prominence. Former FDP Saar General Secretary and MEP Jorgo Chatzimarkakis is the leader of the ÖDP Saar and his wife Manuela Ripa is currently the sole ÖDP MEP.

[buritobr]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

[President Johnson]

Another brand new poll with SPD and Greens tied and the Union in decline. As for prefered chancellor, Scholz leads Laschet and Baerbock in this poll 27-14-13%. Having twice as much support as Laschet is stunning. It's becoming a pattern and I hope we will have convinced these 27% to vote SPD by late September.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1424141439689232388

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Went for an all-day bike excursion from Berlin Mitte to Werder an der Havel, the entire way from my front door through the countryside and small town centers, there were posters everywhere on street lights and fences. It didn't look like this on Friday evening!

So I guess that seven weeks' out marks the beginning of the hot phase of campaigning, is that correct?

But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

I mean, they're not legalizing driving under the influence, so i don't think that's a concern.

[buritobr]

Average of most recent Kantar Emnid, Forsa, Infratest Dimap, INSA polls

CDU/CSU: 25.75%
Grüne: 19.75%
SPD: 17.50%
FDP: 12.50%
AfD: 10.50%
Linke: 6.25%

Sonstige: 7.75%

[Oryxslayer]

Another brand new poll with SPD and Greens tied and the Union in decline. As for prefered chancellor, Scholz leads Laschet and Baerbock in this poll 27-14-13%.

It is becoming a trend, so I wonder what the numbers look like under the hood. Probably a case of Laschet still has not regained the complete confidence of the Union electorate in his individual after the machinations with Söder and/or Merz, but the Union as a whole still has enjoys their voters grudging support.

Baerbock also lacks the complete confidence of her voters, which I would assume is because of how one cannot embody both sides of the Greens eternal factional dichotomy is a single person - but who knows.

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

[CumbrianLefty]

A poll is being mentioned on social media that has Scholz on 35%.

[parochial boy]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

You can't talk about German drug policy without recognising that Cannabis ist kein Brokkoli

[President Johnson]

A poll is being mentioned on social media that has Scholz on 35%.

Yes, that was the Infratest Dimap poll I posted on the previous page. Scholz leads in chancellor preference 35-20-13% over Laschet and Baerbock, respectively.

[Astatine]

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

The Linke would never campaign for the Chancellor slot, as it is simply impossible to achieve that as a non-Volkspartei ("major party"). The only party besides CDU/CSU and SPD that has ever stated ambitions for the Chancellors' office was the FDP in 2002, and that attempt failed miserably ("Project 18"). The Greens only nominated a Chancellor candidate this year since it's within the range of possibilities.

FDP voters would probably lean towards Laschet though, lots of the liberal base are disaffected CDU voters. Support for Baerbock would probably be lowest among them.

Ah, and today a new poll got dropped that sees the Free Voters at 3.5 %. Doubtful they'll make it, but keep an eye on it if Laschet continues to be a lackluster candidate. The FW leader Aiwanger got some media attention recently for his refusal to get vaccinated.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It is becoming a trend, so I wonder what the numbers look like under the hood. Probably a case of Laschet still has not regained the complete confidence of the Union electorate in his individual after the machinations with Söder and/or Merz, but the Union as a whole still has enjoys their voters grudging support.

Baerbock also lacks the complete of her voters, which I would assume is because of how one cannot embody both sides of the Greens eternal factional dichotomy is a single person - but who knows.

The Greens have not been marred by any significant internal factionalism during this campaign. Baerbock flopped because of a series of scandals (or rather “scandals”) and her ineffective response to them, along with some unforced gaffes of her own. She now seems to have hit the floor, possibly leaving some room for recovery, but that remains to be seen.

Laschet is tanking now because of plagiarism allegations together with his lackluster response to the floods last month (side note - Gerhard Schröder would have walked away with this election), which have been especially damaging to him considering he started his candidacy from the disadvantageous position of being Armin Laschet.

The Scholzomat is attracting voter preferences from almost all parties due to this, essentially his virtue of being neither.

[Hnv1]

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

The Linke would never campaign for the Chancellor slot, as it is simply impossible to achieve that as a non-Volkspartei ("major party"). The only party besides CDU/CSU and SPD that has ever stated ambitions for the Chancellors' office was the FDP in 2002, and that attempt failed miserably ("Project 18"). The Greens only nominated a Chancellor candidate this year since it's within the range of possibilities.

FDP voters would probably lean towards Laschet though, lots of the liberal base are disaffected CDU voters. Support for Baerbock would probably be lowest among them.

Ah, and today a new poll got dropped that sees the Free Voters at 3.5 %. Doubtful they'll make it, but keep an eye on it if Laschet continues to be a lackluster candidate. The FW leader Aiwanger got some media attention recently for his refusal to get vaccinated.

I forgot about that akward 2002 FDP move. why on earth did they think it was even tenable?

[Yeahsayyeah]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

You can't talk about German drug policy without recognising that Cannabis ist kein Brokkoli

Yes, because unlike canabis broccoli kills people

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJfejLup_E0

[President Johnson]

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

The Linke would never campaign for the Chancellor slot, as it is simply impossible to achieve that as a non-Volkspartei ("major party"). The only party besides CDU/CSU and SPD that has ever stated ambitions for the Chancellors' office was the FDP in 2002, and that attempt failed miserably ("Project 18"). The Greens only nominated a Chancellor candidate this year since it's within the range of possibilities.

FDP voters would probably lean towards Laschet though, lots of the liberal base are disaffected CDU voters. Support for Baerbock would probably be lowest among them.

Ah, and today a new poll got dropped that sees the Free Voters at 3.5 %. Doubtful they'll make it, but keep an eye on it if Laschet continues to be a lackluster candidate. The FW leader Aiwanger got some media attention recently for his refusal to get vaccinated.

I forgot about that akward 2002 FDP move. why on earth did they think it was even tenable?

Madness on part of then-party leader Guido Westerwelle.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

New Forsa Poll!

Union: 23% (-3% since the last poll)
Greens: 20% (no change)
SPD: 19% (+3%)
FDP: 12% (-1%)
AfD: 10% (no change)
The LEFT: 7% (+1%)

Forsa is usually harsh with the SPD, so this is a very good result. Might be a fluke, but its central message is in line with all the other polls: When Baerbock announced her candidacy, it became a two-way race for #1, when the Greens plummeted, it became a two-way race for #2, and now we are, surprisingly, headed for a three way race for #1. I'd still rather be Baerbock than Scholz right now, but it's time we have to admit something that seemed laughable for the last few years: The SPD might actually win this election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Yeah, maybe the people who actually witnessed the 2013 and 2017 election can chime in on this, but it feels like the SPD is running a much more focused  and high-energy campaign (five key points they relentlessly hammer), a compelling candidate who doesn't flame out too soon (cough Schulz coughcough), and campaigning like an actual labor party.

Obviously they are helped by lackluster/scandal-ridden opposition candidates and Merkel stepping down, but how does this compare to the past three election campaigns? Does this feel different?

I was looking at ad spots from previous campaigns (because what else do Atlas nerds do after work), and the SPD media campaign also seems quite slick this year too. Is that right? The SPD website is actually super cool and intuitive

Edit - maybe i am getting lost in the language translation, but does the SPD proposal for collective bargaining mean they want Nordc-style sector-wide collective bargaining? Because if so, that rules