🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yeah, maybe the people who actually witnessed the 2013 and 2017 election can chime in on this, but it feels like the SPD is running a much more focused  and high-energy campaign (five key points they relentlessly hammer), a compelling candidate who doesn't flame out too soon (cough Schulz coughcough), and campaigning like an actual labor party.

Obviously they are helped by lackluster/scandal-ridden opposition candidates and Merkel stepping down, but how does this compare to the past three election campaigns? Does this feel different?

I was looking at ad spots from previous campaigns (because what else do Atlas nerds do after work), and the SPD media campaign also seems quite slick this year too. Is that right? The SPD website is actually super cool and intuitive

Edit - maybe i am getting lost in the language translation, but does the SPD proposal for collective bargaining mean they want Nordc-style sector-wide collective bargaining? Because if so, that rules

It's totally different than in 2013 and in 2017.

In 2013, people generally liked the SPD's platform and specific concepts. However, they also wanted to keep Merkel. The SPD's candidate for chancellor was pretty uninviting and a majority of voters preferred a grand coalition under Merkel anyway. So they got a grand coalition under Merkel.

In 2017, the SPD had a good candidate but no platform. Really, no platform. I really don't remember what they campaigned on. I think their tax proposal was received quite well, but that's it. They started off so well but they lost support pretty quickly. They were never able to shake of the "loser"-image, which demoralized the party and the campaign. Their campaign was also pretty tame and boring. It also did not help the SPD that the political right had a hegemony on the political discourse at the time. In the end, I think many people really wanted to like Schulz, especially because many were tired of Merkel by then, but the SPD gave them no reason why they should.

2021 is different insofar as there had never been a time in the last years and pretty far into the campaign in which people gave Scholz and the SPD any chance to win. I think that encouraged the SPD to wage a bolder and more creative campaign. Their social media game, which they largely ignored in 2013 and 2017, is quite good. Their whole campaign design is better, more catchy. Just compare the election posters of 2017 with the posters of 2021. It also helps that Scholz is the candidate, of course.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, that latest poll has to make the CDU a bit queasy?

[Cassius]

Who are the 8-10% sonstige who seem to crop up in most polls voting for?

[Mike88]

Who are the 8-10% sonstige who seem to crop up in most polls voting for?

Most of them intend to vote in the Free Voters (FW), a liberal party that focus on regional issues. Some polls put them somewhere between 3-4%.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

New Forsa Poll!

Union: 23% (-3% since the last poll)
Greens: 20% (no change)
SPD: 19% (+3%)
FDP: 12% (-1%)
AfD: 10% (no change)
The LEFT: 7% (+1%)

By the way, that could result in a coalition of

Union + Greens + FDP ('Jamaica'): 55% to 36%
Union + SPD + FDP ('Germany'): 54% to 37%
Green + SPD + FDP ('traffic light'): 51% to 40%
Greens + SPD + LINKE ('Red-Red-Green' or 'R2G'): 46% to 45%

That is the only poll that I know of in which there would be a left majority in the Bundestag, but this still shows that this election is going to produce some really close results and might result in some interesting and possibly very narrow majorities.
Another takeaway is that there are different majorities for a coalition without the Union and that should worry Laschet very much. There is a good chance that he might not become chancellor after all.

[DL]

Newest poll by Kantar is quite something!

Union: 22% (-2% since the last poll)
Greens: 21% (-1%)
SPD: 19% (+1%)
FDP: 12% (-1%)
AfD: 11% (no change)
The LEFT: 7% (+1%)

is it a given that whoever has the largest number of seats between Union, Greens and SPD - likely provides the new chancellor? I'm actually surprised the Greens are even still in the game - seems inevitable that the SPD will overtake them by September and then the "ballot question" becomes - who do you want as chancellor? Laschet or Scholz?

[President Johnson]

Insane polling numbers, and Forsa always underestimates the SPD.

The Forsa survey also included a chancellor preference poll: 26% for Scholz, 16% for Baerbock and 12% (!) for Laschet. Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic at this point. His insistence to become the candidate over Söder really comes back to haunt them big time and it's no longer guaranteed they'll keep the chancellorship. Maybe Laschet is aiming his own Project 18?

If Social Democrats keep this up and the Scholzomat has a strong debate performance, we can actually win this thing.

[Lord Halifax]

Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic at this point. His insistence to become the candidate over Söder really comes back to haunt them big time and it's no longer guaranteed they'll keep the chancellorship. Maybe Laschet is aiming his own Project 18?

If Social Democrats keep this up and the Scholzomat has a strong debate performance, we can actually win this thing.

Is there any chance he may give up and let Söder replace him?

Would the Greens insist on getting the chancellorship in a coalition even if the SDP were slightly bigger?

[President Johnson]

Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic at this point. His insistence to become the candidate over Söder really comes back to haunt them big time and it's no longer guaranteed they'll keep the chancellorship. Maybe Laschet is aiming his own Project 18?

If Social Democrats keep this up and the Scholzomat has a strong debate performance, we can actually win this thing.

Is there any chance he may give up and let Söder replace him?

Would the Greens insist on getting the chancellorship in a coalition even if the SDP were slightly bigger?

Not this late. Given how stubborn Laschet is been in the past, he'll not give up the candidacy. In doing so, he'd admit defeat before a single ballot is counted. He would have to step down as CDU leader then, which would definitely happen in case of a defeat. With that being said, he still has a good chance to become chancellor as long as the Union comes in first, even if it's just in the low/mid 20s. And if the Greens finish ahead of the SPD, a trafficlight coalition is far less likely than with Scholz at the top.

Whoever is strongest party in a coalition gets the chancellorship. There have been no exceptions to this rule so far, even if the difference is just marginal. That was a big issue during the formation of the Grand Coalition in 2005, as the SPD was just behind by 1% (some SPD politicians even argued CDU and CSU were separate parties and therefore the SPD would be the strongest coalition partner). An "Israeli model" was also discussed at the time, where Schröder and Merkel would each serve two years as chancellor. However, this was never agreed upon.

[Continential]

Who would the CDU/CSU support for the Chancellorship if they get in third?

[RGM2609]

Who would the CDU/CSU support for the Chancellorship if they get in third?

It is highly unlikely that CDU would accept to join a coalition without getting the Chancellorship

[President Johnson]

Who would the CDU/CSU support for the Chancellorship if they get in third?

They would go into opposition. At least Söder said they would, as he'd consider this as a vote of no confidence.

Ideologically, Scholz is definitely closer, but he'd be tougher to deal with as junior partner in a governing coalition since he has far more experience than Baerbock.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

If there ends up being a majority for Red-Red-Green, can we expect the FDP to heel hard in the coalitions negotiations out of desperation to prevent RRG?

Seems like that would be the ideal Traffic Light situation

[Astatine]

If there ends up being a majority for Red-Red-Green, can we expect the FDP to heel hard in the coalitions negotiations out of desperation to prevent RRG?

Seems like that would be the ideal Traffic Light situation

I don't think that the Liberals would be giving too many concessions in such a scenario. In 2017, it was planned that the FDP membership base would vote on the Jamaica coalition treaty if the negotiations had succeeded - and I doubt a traffic light coalition with too much red and green in the color mix is what many members would agree to in the end.

But then again, it's not clear whether the hypothetical procedure would end in a convention or a membership vote.

[buritobr]

Do you think a bandwagon effect can take place?

When the Greens had 25% and the SPD had 15% in the polls, a generic center-left vote could choose the Greens considering that they were the most important center-left force in 2021. But now, the Greens and the SPD are tied, and so, this generic center-left voter could go back to the SPD.

[Polkergeist]

If the Union-SPD-Greens are polling around each other around 20% does this mean the overhang seats could go crazy?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

If the Union-SPD-Greens are polling around each other around 20% does this mean the overhang seats could go crazy?

It could, but I wouln't count on it.
The reason why overhang and compensatory seats went crazy in 2017 because the Union had a steady lead of at least 10%. That's the reason for their absolute dominance in the electoral districts. Now that the Union's lead has shrunken, there is a possibility that SPD and Greens pick up a number of seats, making the proportion of directly-won seats more proportional to the share of list votes.

[Sir Mohamed]

What makes Laschet so unpopular that he's apparently tanking that much? I thought he was kind of a Merkel clone and therefore popular?

[President Johnson]

What makes Laschet so unpopular that he's apparently tanking that much? I thought he was kind of a Merkel clone and therefore popular?

He is a lackluster candidate and completely ignored Söder's high popularity, who was far more visible during the pandemic as Söder made a much more decisive impression in handling the crisis than Laschet. Laschet is also very vague about a lot of issues and without the incumbency Merkel had just few people know what he actually stands for other than status-quo. But most importantly is definitely that he ignored the base's will by insisting to become the candidate instead of Söder. It was pretty much the famous smokefilled backroom deal as he only had the backing of the CDU's executive board. And even they only endorsed him because a defeat or withdrawl would have serious damaged his standing as party leader (a post he was just barely elected to months before). And then of course there was his missmanagement during the floods and the cameras caught him joking with others while there.

The Union is also plagued with corruption scandals like the mask affairs and vast incompetence of a number of their ministers.

[mileslunn]

Noticed Scholz on best chancellor scores much higher than party.  Does leader in Germany play a big role thus lead indicator or do people vote more based on party and platform thus leadership numbers irrelevant?  And how likely is it there is a two party coalition as right now polls suggest all two party ones would not be sufficient?  Or could there be a minority government with two parties forming a coalition and then relying on others on issue by issue for support?

[RGM2609]

Noticed Scholz on best chancellor scores much higher than party.  Does leader in Germany play a big role thus lead indicator or do people vote more based on party and platform thus leadership numbers irrelevant?  And how likely is it there is a two party coalition as right now polls suggest all two party ones would not be sufficient?  Or could there be a minority government with two parties forming a coalition and then relying on others on issue by issue for support?

Germans do not really do minority government, so no, a coalition of three parties is most likely. But I would say that a two-party coalition is still possible if one of the Big 3 starts gaining momentum and surging. As to leadership, it is a combination, but it is important to people who their next Chancellor is going to be. Those polls are why many now think that the SPD still has a shot.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1426060580301967366

The German electorate has got to be screwing with us at this point when they give the SPD an average of 19% while they're simping for Scholz THIS HARD.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What makes Laschet so unpopular that he's apparently tanking that much? I thought he was kind of a Merkel clone and therefore popular?

He might be a clone of Merkel concerning his political stances but while Merkel has an almost Queen-Elizabethan aura surrounding her and she carefully chooses her words and what message she wants to convey, Laschet comes off like a nervous gnome who just talks in platitudes, has never said a thoughtful thing in his career and generally does not really think before he opens his mouth. Or, to quote Michael Scott from the office: "Sometimes I start a sentence and I don't even know where it's going. I just hope I find it along the way."

[President Johnson]

Genosse Olaf is crushing it. The big task remains to convince enough of these Scholz backers to actually vote SPD, but I'm growing more and more optimistic by the day.

Who would have thought this would happen just two years after he lost the race for party leader? He was actually close to resigning as Finance Minister at that point.

[DL]

I feel that "best chancellor" is a bit of a leading indicator question in polling and that eventually vote preference will fall in line with who people want as Chancellor. The SPD has no where to go but up!