2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn’t an increase in the gender divide depolarize a lot of things by giving both sides a bit of boost in areas where they’re in the deep minority?

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2022/04/25/desantis-map-sparks-reckoning-for-lawson-dems-00027432


Sounds like Lawson wants to run again in a Trump + 11 district. He lost a similar district by 4 in 2012. Dems barely won it in 2014 although this new version is slightly more red due to it losing a few counties in the east which are like 65 35 or 70 30 and gaining some 80/20 counties in the west. At the presidential level trends have been stagnant but locally the district has trended R.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Doesn't really matter that much, but Dems lead GOP by 21 points amongst voters ages 18-29 years old.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/spring-2022-harvard-youth-poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303/238 map anyways the MI, WI and Pa there hasn't been any polling for went down to the wire last time and we won them all by 50K votes by Provisional ballots Anyways Rs THINKING ITS GONNA BE A Total WIPEOUT ITS NOT HAPPENING .. DeSantis may cost Rs the H he underpolled a Socialist Andrew Gillum, he isn't winning by 12

[2016]

New Insider Advantage Poll has Republicans leading Democrats among Likely Voters by 12 Points (51-39). That seems more in line with the National Environment Democrats are facing.

The left-leaning Havard/Harris Poll has the GCB tied which is crap

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/25/insider-advantage-poll-trump-would-beat-biden-47-percent-to-43-percent-if-election-were-held-today/

Trump leads Biden 47-43 in 2024 Rematch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, it's an R wave right now

[SnowLabrador]

New Insider Advantage Poll has Republicans leading Democrats among Likely Voters by 12 Points (51-39). That seems more in line with the National Environment Democrats are facing.

The left-leaning Havard/Harris Poll has the GCB tied which is crap

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/25/insider-advantage-poll-trump-would-beat-biden-47-percent-to-43-percent-if-election-were-held-today/

Trump leads Biden 47-43 in 2024 Rematch.

To be fair, I think a poll from the "Center for American Greatness" is probably R-leaning. But there's little doubt in my mind it'll be a red tsunami that makes 2010 look like child's play.

[Matty]

Lol at anyone believing gop has 12 point lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if D's lose we have a Quick turnaround in 2024 anyways where the Prez Candidate has a stronger chance of carrying D's in Congress than in a Midterm Election anyways but we know Cali, IL, NY are gonna be safe D ALWAYS

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Manchin lives to troll.

https://www.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1519493521086074882

[RI]

I don't think anyone's posted these national polls:

Emerson (4/25-26)
R 47
D 41

Susquehanna (4/19-27)
R 49
D 39

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don't think anyone's posted these national polls:

Emerson (4/25-26)
R 47
D 41

Susquehanna (4/19-27)
R 49
D 39

With the inclusion of these and the new Marist poll, the 538 average is up to R+ 2.7 and RCP is R +4.7. Both are the new high marks for the cycle I believe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't believe these polls, which I don't we have to wait till we vote where are the state by state poll they're not giving it to us

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think anyone's posted these national polls:

Emerson (4/25-26)
R 47
D 41

Susquehanna (4/19-27)
R 49
D 39

With the inclusion of these and the new Marist poll, the 538 average is up to R+ 2.7 and RCP is R +4.7. Both are the new high marks for the cycle I believe

You believe that too and we haven't voted yet WHERE ARE THE PA, WI MI, MN, NM, KS and ME POLLS

WARNOCK is up 5

I AM NOT SAYING D'S ARENT IN TROUBLE WE GOTTA VOTE NOT POLLS TELLING US HOW TO VOTE  Without state by state polls you can believe anything

[Unelectable Bystander]

Don't believe these polls, which I don't we have to wait till we vote where are the state by state poll they're not giving it to us

Ah yes the state by state polls will save the day. NC, FL, and OH are tossups. PA and WI are lean D. NH, NV, and AZ are likely D all while the generic ballot is R+6. The R gains will be coming from winning Idaho with 95% of the vote and cutting Vermont to single digits

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1520163616137359360

Suozzi can now run for gov and when he loses still run for congress.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/Cavalewis/status/1520095372949049346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

This year will make 2010 look like a blue wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Cavalewis/status/1520095372949049346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

This year will make 2010 look like a blue wave.

You are really giddy off these bon state by state polls that give us blanket R Generic ballot leads without state polls to back them up, if Ds are really 10 behind show us a WI poll showing Johnson 11 on Barnes or Sharpiro down 14

We still have to vote, when I make predictions I bare this in mind that  first our Predictions don't have to be accurate, number 2 there are no state by state polls, number three voting helps D's and Finally, if this is a lost Elections, it hurts Biden not us he was supposed to be Landslide Biden 413 but he was just like Hillary Clinton, not Bill Clinton whom only won because he faced off against Bush and Dole not and  Perot

[ElectionsGuy]

All April 29th.

2022

GB: R+5
Biden: -12

2018

GB: D+7
Trump: -12

2014

GB: D+1
Obama: -8

2010

GB: R+1
Obama: +2

The common thread: All generic ballots ended up worse for the party in power on election day than at this point. D's only slightly better in 2018 because Trump marginally improved his approval. Biden's approval seems to have bottomed out and been relatively stable in the low 40's these past 4 months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All April 29th.

2022

GB: R+5
Biden: -12

2018

GB: D+7
Trump: -12

2014

GB: D+1
Obama: -8

2010

GB: R+1
Obama: +2

The common thread: All generic ballots ended up worse for the party in power on election day than at this point. D's only slightly better in 2018 because Trump marginally improved his approval. Biden's approval seems to have bottomed out and been relatively stable in the low 40's these past 4 months.

Why do you keep doing this 2020 Trump net gained H seats at 44% Approvals and 2018 Trump net gained S seats at 40/54

I can put my own stats up

VA we lost by 2 Calii we won Latinos 70/3o and won the Cali recall and we won NJ by two, Election Guy never talks about Cali recall he only talks how we lost VA

It's a 110/15o M votes Election and in 201072014 82M vote Election

WHERE ARE THE MN, WI, Pa, MN, OH ME STATE BY STATE POLLS WHERE IS FETTERMAN OR BARNES DOWN 11PTS There ARENT ANY


WE STILLL HAVE TO VOTE YOU ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC

[Minnesota Mike]

Washington Post/ ABC News poll:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21777737-2022-04-28-trend-for-release

GCB: RV

Dems 46%
Rep 45%

Up from R+7 in their Feb poll.

Just one poll, throw it in the average but hints at Democratic momentum.

[ElectionsGuy]

Collectively, these 5 pollsters showed Biden leading Trump by 10.4% in their last 2020 polls. They now collectively show Republicans with a tiny 0.4% lead, basically tied. People can decide for themselves what information they want to trust, but would it be wise to trust the same ones who failed in the last election?

[Matty]

The burden is on abc/WAPO to explain why the hell the GB went from R+10 to D+1

[Brittain33]

The burden is on abc/WAPO to explain why the hell the GB went from R+10 to D+1

Are you asking them to unskew one of the polls?

[Minnesota Mike]

The burden is on abc/WAPO to explain why the hell the GB went from R+10 to D+1

Why? The poll is what the poll is. Did you demand explanations when the polls started dropping for Democrats?