2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1331825043903418369

It looks like Nina Turner has registered a domain for a congressional run if Fudge is chosen for USDA.

That's certainly better than a 2024 presidential grift.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CO-3:  A Democratic challenger emerges.  Running as a Blue Dog.  Rancher and former marine.

https://twitter.com/greggsmith0351/status/1355503586965241860?s=21

It looks like this is going to be the next NC-11 - an obnoxious scumbag versus a ghoul identifying as liberal. This guy was partners with Erik Prince for decades and while the details of that arrangement are disputed, nothing good could have come out of a working relationship with Blackwater.

Gregg Smith's own military career didn't end in the marines - he ran a Chinese-backed mercenary group operating in Africa that is probably at least half as unethical.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/03/kerry-donovan-launched-campaign-against-lauren-boebert/

Democratic State Senator Kerry Donovan running in CO-03.

She backed Warren in the primaries and initially called on the DSCC to reconsider its endorsement of Hickenlooper. I worry the party establishment will consider the mercenary more electable and push for a nomination that could damage the party's image on a much larger scale.

A marginally better shot at Boebert is not worth selling your soul for.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Rand Paul says he plans to run for reelection and that he does not support personal term limits as opposed to a term limits law for all.

Mike Lee also essentially confirms he's running by fundraising off being targeted in 2022.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

They’re probably going off the 538 poll ratings which are based on the window no wider than three weeks prior to the election, beyond which many of Quinnipiac’s worst misses lay.

These ratings also have Trafalgar down as an A- pollster. It might deserve that relative to other pollsters these days, but “A-“ suggests it and Quinnipiac are actually decent. This is a problem with relative grading, especially restricted to a single electoral cycle.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

Generic Ballot, North Carolina
Cygnal
May 6-8
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with "March 2021"

Generic state legislature: R+3 (without rounding)
Republican 48% (+2)
Democratic 44% (-1)
Unsure 8% (n/c)

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Approval ratings for Biden and Cooper also in there along with favourabilities for a bunch of Senate hopefuls.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

How are Registered Voters (RV) (which nearly all the current generic ballot polls are, as opposed to Likely Voters) polls "using 2010 and 2014 turnout models?"  Aren't RV polls by definition not using any type of a turnout model?

Lots of RV polls still weight by self-reported likelihood to vote and are differentiated from their LV alternatives because they do not impose further screens. This isn’t always reliable, especially if there is a trend of certain groups under or over-reporting or becoming more/less likely to self-report an intention to vote as Election Day draws nearer.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bad news.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1466101114860974089

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bad news.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1466101114860974089

The new district is pretty much Safe D so I wouldn't worry about it too much
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1442974851484975106

It's bad because DeFazio is progressive, competent and well-placed to thrive in a seniority-based system. He's not exactly a unicorn, but that combination makes him pretty close to one for the Democratic House caucus.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Manchin lives to troll.

https://www.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1519493521086074882