2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[BoiseBoy]

Dems should just vote the first map. At the end of the day it's fine for them partisan wise, with a bunch of winnable seats.

[lfromnj]

Interesting 15 looks like a Clinton district.

Honestly, I kind of think that they made all 3 seats extremely narrowly Trump just for the optics of being able to increase the number of Trump seats on the map, even though at the end of the day the difference between a Trump + 0.2 and Biden + 0.2 seat is meaningless.

I personally really want a FL-05 contained to just Duval so glad to see it come up. It's a black functioning seat that makes more sense from a COI standpoint and is visually better.

What's your opinion on the 20th? It arguably could be chopped down to just Broward but then the media will just go on a rant about how racist Florida is removing black incumbents as Al Lawson is certainly cooked IMO while  Sheila McCormick would not be in a great position although there would still be a spare Dem seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting 15 looks like a Clinton district.

Honestly, I kind of think that they made all 3 seats extremely narrowly Trump just for the optics of being able to increase the number of Trump seats on the map, even though at the end of the day the difference between a Trump + 0.2 and Biden + 0.2 seat is meaningless.

I personally really want a FL-05 contained to just Duval so glad to see it come up. It's a black functioning seat that makes more sense from a COI standpoint and is visually better.

What's your opinion on the 20th? It arguably could be chopped down to just Broward but then the media will just go on a rant about how racist Florida is removing black incumbents.

Def not my favorite seat either; I think it should ideally become just Broward at this point. For a variety of reasons I think that is unlikely to happen though.

[GALeftist]

I can live with it. That Orlando seat is probably on borrowed time anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm noticing a theme here...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The interesting thing with the Jacksonville AA seat is that it might be a play for a more conservative Democrat.  Lawson is a Tallahassee Democrat and while I could be mistaken, I have always gotten the impression that AA Democrats in Jacksonville tend to be more conservative, especially relative to those from Tallahassee.  A FL poster could certainly correct me if I am wrong, but it is something I have wondered about.

[Oryxslayer]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1497299512599134214?s=20&t=mWdbZDWWUhf...

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1497301490431631371?s=20&t=mWdbZDWWUhf...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1497299512599134214?s=20&t=mWdbZDWWUhf...

Great map. Hopefully this passes the House and Senate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The only really “gerrymandered” parts are what they did with FL-07 and pushing FL-26 southwards, but both of those were pretty light. Def a good map overall

[politicallefty]

The Senate map looks nicer around the Tampa area, but the House map actually makes more sense there. I think a nice compromise would give the House what it wants in the Tampa area and contracting FL-05 to the most Democratic parts of Jacksonville. I think the Senate map does a much better job in the Orlando area. If the House map fixes the Orlando area, it's a map I would vote for if I was in the Legislature.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the Biden margin in FL-23(Deutch)?

[lfromnj]

"Electing Democrats is unconstitutional. "

In all seriousness, if I was DeSantis I would call out the legislature on their logic for FL 10 and demand to split up McCormicks seat for a clearly black performing seat based in Broward along with a potential 2nd seat entirely in Palm Beach that would have similar demographics/partisan lean to FL 10th. Doing this effectively forces a coastal seat. Pretty similar actually to what the CA commision did in the central Valley. The actual VRA seats aren't that ugly, its just the R sink is a complete joke of a district.


 
Broward seat is 41% black VAP with remainder split between hispanics and whites while the Palm Beach seat is pretty similar to the Orlando seat. All 3 black seats are pretty clearly reasonable. Coastal seat is more iffy although we have seen commissions already create such seats such as Michigan.

[Unelectable Bystander]

How is SE Florida so competitive (MD, PB, etc) when D’s have like 5 safe seats down there? The map looks sorta like Chicago or Philly yet those two are competitive counties

[lfromnj]

How is SE Florida so competitive (MD, PB, etc) when D’s have like 5 safe seats down there? The map looks sorta like Chicago or Philly yet those two are competitive counties

3 of those seats are only Biden +15.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

What do you think about NC 01 and GA 02? They look like they could possibly flip

[lfromnj]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

What do you think about NC 01 and GA 02? They look like they could possibly flip

I don't see GA02 as vulnerable really. Still like Biden +12 in an inelastic region with a relatively strong urban D base. Biden performed fairly similar to 2012 Obama overall.

[Oryxslayer]

The House is debating the maps. This is what I alluded to earlier on why the Duval-only FL-05 would likely be fine in a few years, but not absolutely sound -as needed - at the present moment:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1497274340739407872?s=20&t=SclXAg4pAtVj...

What do you think about NC 01 and GA 02? They look like they could possibly flip

I don't see GA02 as vulnerable really. Still like Biden +12 in an inelastic region with a relatively strong urban D base. Biden performed fairly similar to 2012 Obama overall.

Yeah. That said, I would have made them safer so that whatever population changes occur next decade do not disrupt their performance. GA-02: remove Lee and some other majority White Counties/city precincts and add in Crisp, Twiggs, more of Warner Robins, and a bit more diverse urban precincts. In essence, get the set over 50% BVAP measured by African Americans alone. NC-01: Cut more counties so that Goldsboro and Kinston are in the seat and some of the very White areas are removed. Make these changes and you can make it so that the Black population is larger than the White population when measured by Black+mixed and Black alone - without using Raleigh-Durham.

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/01/florida-gop-desantis-redistricting-00012021

Florida Democrats still don’t know who will run in a handful of competitive congressional districts with just six months before the state’s primaries. And they may not know any time soon.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ unexpected and unusual push to reshape Florida’s redistricting process has all but frozen the field, leaving Democrats frustrated as they wait for state lawmakers and possibly the courts to sort out how Florida’s maps will look.

“I have to see the map,” said former Rep. Donna Shalala, a Miami Democrat who says she is considering challenging Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar to win back the seat she lost in 2020. “I’m not making a decision until I see the lines.”

lol

[Oryxslayer]

Florida Supreme Court approves the twin legislative maps, as per their duty. Court rejected GOP lawmaker desires to overturn some of the old precedent from the previous court.

[GALeftist]

DeSantis reiterates veto threat:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1498445040393273345

Confirms what we knew all along, which was that his "concerns" were about the number of Democrats the map would elect and not its compliance with the VRA or anything like that.

[BoiseBoy]

Fair chance FL senate passes the House 8019 plan, as the Senate President says it is constitutional:

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1499573120495144980?s=20&t=568yuyCJ0yFmCN...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fair chance FL senate passes the House 8019 plan, as the Senate President says it is constitutional:

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1499573120495144980?s=20&t=568yuyCJ0yFmCN...

I wish we could have the House's Tampa config with the Senate's Orlando, seems like that's not happening though. Duval based FL-05 will certainly be interesting.

On a sidenote the House's map has 4 Clinton-Trump yet zero Trump-Biden seats which is quite interesting. I wonder if FL-26 could be in danger for the GOP if 2020 turns out to be an exception? It physically looks very similar but gets quite a bit bluer.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/01/florida-gop-desantis-redistricting-00012021

Florida Democrats still don’t know who will run in a handful of competitive congressional districts with just six months before the state’s primaries. And they may not know any time soon.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ unexpected and unusual push to reshape Florida’s redistricting process has all but frozen the field, leaving Democrats frustrated as they wait for state lawmakers and possibly the courts to sort out how Florida’s maps will look.

“I have to see the map,” said former Rep. Donna Shalala, a Miami Democrat who says she is considering challenging Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar to win back the seat she lost in 2020. “I’m not making a decision until I see the lines.”

lol

My queen is alive!

[S019]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.