2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm just thinking some more about your FL-15/FL-16 arrangement, and whilst it's certainly elegant, I'm wondering if it's necessary to concede two safely Dem seats in the area.

None of the surrounding seats are competitive and several of them are trending Republican, so wouldn't something like my arrangement be more electorally profitable for them, by swapping two safely Dem seats for one safe seat and one potentially competitive one?

If you wanted to be slightly more aggressive and if Bilirakis was willing to give up Palm Harbor, you could draw something like this:



That gives you a district that shouldn't fall foul of the Fair Districts Amendment, but which Clinton only won by one and which looks to be trending rightwards. If you then keep the non-Pinellas portions of my FL-12 identical, that still gives you a district that Trump won by 12, and trends around Tampa make that too close you can bolster the margin by swapping out the Pasco coast for slightly redder precincts further inland.

Yes, the Peninsula is trending R pretty noticeably.  It wouldn't surprise me if Republicans won the existing Crist district in a good year.

Probably not with Crist there, he seems to have always had a really strong personal brand in Pinellas County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is one of those Charlie Brown football situations, isn’t it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The interesting thing with the Jacksonville AA seat is that it might be a play for a more conservative Democrat.  Lawson is a Tallahassee Democrat and while I could be mistaken, I have always gotten the impression that AA Democrats in Jacksonville tend to be more conservative, especially relative to those from Tallahassee.  A FL poster could certainly correct me if I am wrong, but it is something I have wondered about.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

How about no

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1511769937194491919

Republican judge is a partisan hacktivist masquerading as a judge.  In other news, water is still wet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

It’s a real shame if EITHER Florida or Ohio went Dems way the national map would be (almost) not catastrophic this year and great in other yesrs

IIRC, they did but Tampa-St. Pete and Orlando are a different trial.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

No offense, but I’m genuinely not sure what you’re talking about Re: FL vs. NY.  The FL gerrymander is one of the worst in the country (although not as bad as TX or OH).  The NY map was a mild-to-medium gerrymander.