2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

Something which IMO is underdiscussed is how crummy the Collier-Miami-Dade district is. Obviously it makes sense from a Republican POV, but it's actually extremely egregious under fair redistricting principles. It's a pretty straightforward example linking two unconnected areas since the Everglades in between the portions are basically unpopulated.

The argument that it's needed in the same way as the Texas Fajitas, to unpack a packed minority, doesn't hold water--there are lots of white and Black areas near heavily Latino parts of Miami-Dade that are much more connected to Hialeah than Naples.

IMO fair maps should all have something like this (give or take specific line finagling)

I drew something like this a few years back when Florida was going to get seat 29 - and spoiler that seat would be a new Hispanic seat. With one seat already going south to the Keys, one to the West, and one to the eastern shoreline, going north seemed like the easy option. Well, after talking with MCI, that door quickly shut itself.

The truth is that DRA's Hispanic column doesn't accurately capture the diversity of Hispanic groups in M-D, nor those groups which are mixed between Hispanic and Black like Afro-Caribbean populations. Going north would be intolerable based on these divergences, whereas going west makes sense from the same justification as a Fajita: block voting means one group has control rather than several bickering internally.

[Sol]

Something which IMO is underdiscussed is how crummy the Collier-Miami-Dade district is. Obviously it makes sense from a Republican POV, but it's actually extremely egregious under fair redistricting principles. It's a pretty straightforward example linking two unconnected areas since the Everglades in between the portions are basically unpopulated.

The argument that it's needed in the same way as the Texas Fajitas, to unpack a packed minority, doesn't hold water--there are lots of white and Black areas near heavily Latino parts of Miami-Dade that are much more connected to Hialeah than Naples.

IMO fair maps should all have something like this (give or take specific line finagling)

I drew something like this a few years back when Florida was going to get seat 29 - and spoiler that seat would be a new Hispanic seat. With one seat already going south to the Keys, one to the West, and one to the eastern shoreline, going north seemed like the easy option. Well, after talking with MCI, that door quickly shut itself.

The truth is that DRA's Hispanic column doesn't accurately capture the diversity of Hispanic groups in M-D, nor those groups which are mixed between Hispanic and Black like Afro-Caribbean populations. Going north would be intolerable based on these divergences, whereas going west makes sense from the same justification as a Fajita: block voting means one group has control rather than several bickering internally.

Not sure who MCI is. This guy? 

You can definitely finagle those lines in Miami-Dade if the concern is balancing various ethnic and partisan CoIs--iirc it's possible to do one where the Latino communities in M-D are more D-favoring if the concern is that the Cuban vote in Hialeah is being drowned out.

The issue more is that the link over to Collier isn't really possible to justify under my (or most people's) fair redistricting criteria--even if there are suboptimal elements about linking Broward to Miami-Dade, it's more than outweighed by geographic dissonance in a Collier--Miami-Dade district. The nearest comparison I can come to is crossing the Cascades, except in Florida, unlike WA or OR, it's actually possible to draw a map without crossing the Cascades.

In any case, I think Collier actually is equally risky as Broward to the ability of Latino communities to elect candidates of choice depending on swings in voting preferences. Democrats were quite competitive in the Latino vote in the mid-2010s, for example. Díaz-Balart is entrenched so this didn't happen, but if he had won a competitive election in FL-25 he likely might have won without winning the Latino vote. This actually happened with the 2016 presidential vote--FL-25 voted for Trump but subtracting Collier and Hendry gives you 52-45 Clinton margin. Given the diversity of political opinion between and within different Latino communities in South Florida, it's hard to guarantee that the candidate of choice of a specific community or subcommunity can win an election.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure who MCI is. This guy? 

Yes, he's also my friend on twitter. Works in Tallahassee in I believe the planning department, probably should be the first source on FL political geography and laws pertaining as such if you have no prior knowledge of it. He actually did an analysis of the DeSantis Hispanic seats recently, which included I believe a seat similar but less Hispanic than this.

Only other thing I would add is that is I guess we would have to agree to disagree cause I personally do not consider compactness the first principle of fair redistricting. Adequate and appropriate minority opportunity is principle 1 by law while observing Gingles, and if that requires some oddities like the Fajitas, the new Long Beach - inner LA seat, or a Baton Rouge - Shreveport seat, so be it. That said, I tend to grab Lehigh Acres when I have FL-25 grab the rural Hispanic agriculture everglades communities rather than Naples area whites.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CBS12/status/1488552321017683969

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/flcourts/status/1488594404726165507


https://efactssc-public.flcourts.org/casedocuments/2022/139/2022-139_petition_79511_request2dadvisory20opinion2028governor29.pdf

Guess I misread DeSantis. I don't think FL05 would be illegal under the FL state constitution but there is a case it is illegal under the Federal constitution. DeSantis did not ask the FL supreme court to do anything based under Federal law.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/flcourts/status/1488594404726165507

https://efactssc-public.flcourts.org/casedocuments/2022/139/2022-139_petition_79511_request2dadvisory20opinion2028governor29.pdf

Guess I misread DeSantis. I don't think FL05 would be illegal under the FL state constitution but there is a case it is illegal under the Federal constitution.

Even if the FLSC says it's not necessary, that doesn't mean the legislature is going to want to get rid of it. Neither the House nor Senate proposals touch it.

[lfromnj]

https://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Committees/committeesdetail.aspx?CommitteeId=3110

State house redistricting meeting cancelled for the 4th.

[GALeftist]

Any chance the FLSC finds that the district is actually explicitly illegal under Florida law?

Anyway I'm starting to think that DeSantis actually is racist or really hates Al Lawson or something. Just pushing for Tampa/Orlando reconfigurations:

1. Would have approximately 0.1% of the legal trouble he is putting the state through with this bizarre fixation
2. Would be at least as effective and probably anywhere from 2x to 6x as effective as an FL-05 crack
3. Wouldn't antagonize the Florida legislature like he has been doing

Why is he doing this?

[BoiseBoy]

Any chance the FLSC finds that the district is actually explicitly illegal under Florida law?

Anyway I'm starting to think that DeSantis actually is racist or really hates Al Lawson or something. Just pushing for Tampa/Orlando reconfigurations:

1. Would have approximately 0.1% of the legal trouble he is putting the state through with this bizarre fixation
2. Would be at least as effective and probably anywhere from 2x to 6x as effective as an FL-05 crack
3. Wouldn't antagonize the Florida legislature like he has been doing

Why is he doing this?

Because he's appealing to idiot conservatives to run in a 2024 GOP primary, also because he's running for reelection this year.

[BoiseBoy]

https://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Committees/committeesdetail.aspx?CommitteeId=3110

State house redistricting meeting cancelled for the 4th.

What the hell are they doing? That's the second meeting in a row they've cancelled. They haven't put out a new draft map since the Senate passed theirs.

[lfromnj]

https://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Committees/committeesdetail.aspx?CommitteeId=3110

State house redistricting meeting cancelled for the 4th.

What the hell are they doing? That's the second meeting in a row they've cancelled. They haven't put out a new draft map since the Senate passed theirs.

https://twitter.com/Mdixon55/status/1488635546968760330

[Brittain33]

I feel so conflicted right now.

As Republicans stretch this out, the probability they will make the map worse and more gerrymandered will compete with the rising tide of chaos caused by a looming deadline with active disagreement.

[lfromnj]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

[Brittain33]

I assume DeSantis assumed the legislature would handle this for the Republican Party without any drama or stress while he focused on other things more associated with his Presidential ambitions. He was blindsided by the Senate releasing a Dem-friendly map which became an unexpected problem for him and now he's trying to get involved with a team that is struggling to get smart, fast on how to advocate for a Republican solution.

Think about it. Why should the governor care that much when the legislature is usually so good at taking care of its own interests and always has led on redistricting?

Anyway, I take his initiatives seriously and don't think the Senate's position will stand up.

[lfromnj]

Has DeSantis ever called for a bill that hasn't passed by the way? Like the legislature was willing to pass those stupid big tech bills which were sure losers to any lawsuit.

I assume DeSantis assumed the legislature would handle this for the Republican Party without any drama or stress while he focused on other things more associated with his Presidential ambitions. He was blindsided by the Senate releasing a Dem-friendly map which became an unexpected problem for him and now he's trying to get involved with a team that is struggling to get smart, fast on how to advocate for a Republican solution.

Think about it. Why should the governor care that much when the legislature is usually so good at taking care of its own interests and always has led on redistricting?

Anyway, I take his initiatives seriously and don't think the Senate's position will stand up.

With so much at stake, Governor Roy Barnes became much
more involved than previous governors in redistricting.195 He
sought to sail against the tide and expand Democratic seats in the
General Assembly and enable Democrats to win nine seats in the
expanded thirteen-member congressional delegation.196
 The Senate
map was drawn under Barnes’ supervision and accepted with few,
if any, changes.197 Republicans had no input and even Democrats
were kept out of the process; simply shown a draft with a warning
that, if they objected, their district would be made worse.198
 In the
House, Speaker Tom Murphy pushed back and made changes to
protect his friends, even at his own expense.199

Overall you are correct that governor's very rarely get involved in redistricting. The only other governor's this cycle I can remember are Hogan/Ever's but that is with an opposing legislature. Ever's was a bit embarressing as even Democrats in the legislature failed to vote for his legislative maps.


I don't know how much Pritzker got involved but DeSantis is really taking it to a new level.

In 2010 I don't think there were many either.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

[lfromnj]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

Twitter users who spam Christina Pushaw.

https://twitter.com/DesantisProject


https://www.newsweek.com/desantis-vetoes-civic-education-bill-passed-unanimously-after-national-review-op-ed-1606209

Here are some interesting items. There are a few bills  which passed with very large majorities that DeSantis decided to veto in the end. I don't think any of them were overridden.


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2021/10/22/desantis-tests-his-sway-with-legislature-494802

After hinting and prodding for months that he wants a special session dealing with Covid-19 mandates, Gov. Ron DeSantis went ahead on Thursday and announced that he was calling lawmakers back to town — probably next month. The goal: to take steps against private employers that require worker to get shots, to “reaffirm” that local governments can’t impose vaccine mandates, and to beef up the “Parent’s Bill of Rights” when it comes to letting them opt out of school district-imposed mask mandates. One of the big ideas is to strip Covid-19 liability protections from businesses that put mandates on its workers.

Let’s note this right now — DeSantis has wanted a special session for some time now. Behind the scenes, Republican legislative leaders haven’t said no — but they had not said yes either. Back in August, it was clear that a special session dealing strictly with school mask mandates was a no-go. But the governor acted this week without getting full buy-in from House Speaker Chris Sprowls and Senate President Wilton Simpson, which is a risky move. You usually don’t call a special session unless you have it all worked out what you want passed and when you want it passed. Right now, that’s not the case. Word is legislative leaders didn’t know about this until the day before DeSantis' press conference.

https://elamerican.com/florida-passes-bill-federal-vaccine-mandate/

In the end DeSantis got what he wanted.


https://miami.cbslocal.com/2022/01/10/2022-legislative-session-driven-desantis-agenda/

So overall it does seem like DeSantis is the main man behind FL but for some reason decided not to touch redistricting until now.


https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2022/01/11/1-100-pound-gorilla-in-state-government-desantis-starts-2022-session-with-tight-hold-on-power-1404915

Most interesting article.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

I don't think there are many. They are vocal on Twitter, but these are insiders of insiders. However, I'm sure there are donors, both large and small, who would like to see something like this on the resume for national office.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

I don't think there are many. They are vocal on Twitter, but these are insiders of insiders. However, I'm sure there are donors, both large and small, who would like to see something like this on the resume for national office.

Yeah, they're basically to redistricting and elections what anime avatars are to "social justice" activism.

[S019]

Maybe this is just the optimist in me, but I feel like the legislature can care less what DeSantis wants, they obviously want to promote their parochial interests in any such map and would probably rather not risk a court finding a gerrymandered map in violation of Florida law and throwing it out. If DeSantis doesn't budge, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans give a few concessions to Democrats, particularly on the state maps (which are not subject to veto and Democratic lawmakers probably care more about given it's their own districts) to force through a veto override on the Congressional. This all strikes me as virtue signaling over nothing, and the legislature can easily tell DeSantis that they won't listen, and if they can give concessions to a few Democratic lawmakers, DeSantis can do nothing to stop them.

[lfromnj]

Maybe this is just the optimist in me, but I feel like the legislature can care less what DeSantis wants, they obviously want to promote their parochial interests in any such map and would probably rather not risk a court finding a gerrymandered map in violation of Florida law and throwing it out. If DeSantis doesn't budge, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans give a few concessions to Democrats, particularly on the state maps (which are not subject to veto and Democratic lawmakers probably care more about given it's their own districts) to force through a veto override on the Congressional. This all strikes me as virtue signaling over nothing, and the legislature can easily tell DeSantis that they won't listen, and if they can give concessions to a few Democratic lawmakers, DeSantis can do nothing to stop them.

State senate maps are done and just have to pass each chamber and state house are almost done.
Did you read about the post with all the links? I can definetely see the legislative leaders wanting to ignore DeSantis but I can't find many such examples of that happening where they managed to completely ignore him. DeSantis has already vetoed a few bills which were never overridden.

The last article had this quote. It isn't related to redistricting but still

One current Republican legislator granted anonymity to speak about the governor offered a more blunt assessment: “They are not going to embarrass Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis is essentially the speaker of the House, the president of the Senate and the chief justice of the Supreme Court right now.”

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if this is almost a test of sorts to see how favorable or unfavorable the court may be towards a gerrymander

[lfromnj]

I mean the FL senate knows to some degree what is happening with the court. The previous court struck down the Gainesville area in the state senate even though Alachua wasn't even split. Now they just flat out split the county in 2 which directly disregards the precedent.

[lfromnj]

By the way how much worse off is Rutherford if Jacksonville is split along the river? His current is Trump +21. The River split makes it Trump +16 but the newer map is only like Trump +18 or 19 right?

[lfromnj]

Any chance the FLSC finds that the district is actually explicitly illegal under Florida law?

Anyway I'm starting to think that DeSantis actually is racist or really hates Al Lawson or something. Just pushing for Tampa/Orlando reconfigurations:

1. Would have approximately 0.1% of the legal trouble he is putting the state through with this bizarre fixation
2. Would be at least as effective and probably anywhere from 2x to 6x as effective as an FL-05 crack
3. Wouldn't antagonize the Florida legislature like he has been doing

Why is he doing this?

Another thing about FL-05, the legislative maps often have a few GOP districts benefit from a lot of BS VRA districts. For example the FL supreme court let a map stand in the state house that goes from St.Pete all the way down to Sarasota just because its 41% black.  Or the Tampa St.Pete senate district which doesn't even use the bridge. On the other hand Democrats benefit in the gainesville area as the whites and blacks are seperated as Gainesville blacks are placed in an oppurtunity seat with Ocala. The GOP in the state house got the white seat down to Trump +1 but if you just had a regular Gainesville "pack" and note by pack I just mean a very Safe D seat that is natural to draw you can not get a 2nd D district from the region.