2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[lilTommy]

If the NDP takes one good thing out of the election, it's that they won more votes overall:

Votes compared to 2019…
NDP +60,572
Liberal -585,611
Conservative -600,065
Green -802,090
Bloc Québécois -95,186

but...
PPC +547,908 - big winners in vote increase

[jaichind]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

[Oryxslayer]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

Probably none of this. The Conservative's went ham against the CCP - the two Michaels, Huawei, the Xinjiang condemnation - cause they believed it worked. Remember that many Chinese Canadians are decedents of non-mainlanders who fled the advance or legal transition of their territory to CCP control, an inverse of the usual migration situation. A Brain Gain. Richmond is very wealthy and their previous two MPs were very much on the cultural right.

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

[jaichind]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

Probably none of this. The Conservative's went ham against the CCP - the two Michaels, Huawei, the Xinjiang condemnation - cause they believed it worked. Remember that many Chinese Canadians are decedents of non-mainlanders who fled the advance or legal transition of their territory to CCP control, an inverse of the usual migration situation. A Brain Gain. Richmond is very wealthy and their previous two MPs were very much on the cultural right.

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

I totally agree with you on the first point that is why I doubt this theory.  You second point does seem to make sense and does sound plausible.

[beesley]

Another fun fact: for all the talk about MPs losing their pensions, only seven did: the Liberals' Deb Sculte, Bernadette Jordan, Neil Ellis and Maryam Monsef, and the Conservatives' Bob Saroya, Kerry Diotte and Leona Alleslev.

[adma]

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

Well, it's difficult to say there, because the heart of "young urban swing progressivism", Hamilton Centre, is digging into the NDP under Matthew Green rather than swinging away.  In fact, when all is said and done, the Mountain really has more in common with HESC than it does with HC--that is, it's primarily postwar suburban, like a non-ethnoburban Scarborough, perhaps.  And that might offer clues to its Lib-amenability.

And HESC is interesting in a *different* way, and perhaps more ominously: the NDP, which many claimed was poised to reclaim the seat, finished 3rd (and with the same candidate as in 2019, so no Malcolm Allen parachute alibi here), and in fact CPC was the only party of the big 3 to gain share over '19.  So, a dynamic that's less GTA-Liberalizing than SW Ontario-Conservatizing (though Cons + PPC still fell just short of overtaking the Libs); or else maybe the rewards of O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" being reaped in Hamilton East environs.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

Of course, it's not necessarily just star candidates that can win the T-D's back, but a more "macro" form of Liberal stumbling.  Because there's no guarantee that LPC will *always* be deemed "doing OK".

And as for Spadina-Fort York's heartbreak, what nobody's really hit upon is that even if Vuong still got too many votes and too high a share in the end, it is, sadly, not exactly a Davenport-style "binary progressive" riding (notwithstanding '18's provincial result).  That is, the downtown condos work in a False Creek or Coal Harbour way and aren't necessarily guaranteed to default NDP in the face of a disgraced Liberal candidate (in fact in '19, less than 2.5 points separated NDP from CPC--had Jagmeet not caught fire, the *latter* might have been 2nd).  And of course, who knows how many of those condo-dwellers are slick-yuppie Bay Street Liberals who stuck to party label and figured that sexual assault charges are no big deal, it'll all blow over soon enough...

[adma]

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

Northern Ontario's actually an interesting case, and rudiments of this "swing to the right" were already evident in '19--this time, all but 3 Northern ridings saw CPC + PPC on top.  (And of the remaining 3, said "united right" was less than a point short in Sudbury, 4 points short in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, and only in TBSN were they safely double-digits behind.)

[adma]

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

Yeah, I agree.  They were "masking before masking was cool", so to speak, so it all comes second nature to them--and of course, the SARS crisis had a particular immediacy when it came to Toronto's Chinese.  So to them, CPC soft-pedalling would seem tin-eared, and PPC militancy outright unseemly.  (And within a society and culture marked by resolute discipline, Bernierite freedom-mongering is totally off-orbit--though one can understand how they might have found Stephen Harper's stolidity admirable.)

[King of Kensington]

Re: condos, the NDP's Breen Ouellette just achieved the party's best result in Vancouver Centre since Hedy Fry was first elected.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

Kinda goes with the election in general. Still sad about REB not winning though.

Possibly calm before the storm.  In 2008, only 4 ridings flipped, but in 2011 58 out of 75 flipped.  So Quebec is unpredictable but when they swing, tend to swing hard.

Quebec was pretty consistent in 2004, 2006 and 2008 before swinging hard in 2011, so who knows...Gérard Deltell for CPC leadership?

[adma]

Re: condos, the NDP's Breen Ouellette just achieved the party's best result in Vancouver Centre since Hedy Fry was first elected.

And that's still 4 points below Norm Di Pasquale (though yes, Hedy's not a disgraced independent).

Speaking of disgraced, that NDP suspended-campaigner Sidney Coles still managed to improve on '19 by a point in Toronto-St Paul's is noteworthy.  (And when it comes to *those* kinds of ridings, Vancouver-Quadra saw *its* best NDP result since, well, Hedy Fry was first elected.  And it had more "favourable" boundaries when the NDP pushed into the 20s in the 1980s.)

[Continential]

MP-elect George Chahal is being investigated

[H. Ross Peron]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

Probably none of this. The Conservative's went ham against the CCP - the two Michaels, Huawei, the Xinjiang condemnation - cause they believed it worked. Remember that many Chinese Canadians are decedents of non-mainlanders who fled the advance or legal transition of their territory to CCP control, an inverse of the usual migration situation. A Brain Gain. Richmond is very wealthy and their previous two MPs were very much on the cultural right.

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

I totally agree with you on the first point that is why I doubt this theory.  You second point does seem to make sense and does sound plausible.

The exact same pattern was detected in California's recent recall election where Asian, especially Vietnamese, areas swung significantly against the Recall compared to the 2020 Presidential election due to the centrality of pandemic restrictions during the campaign. Asian voters may be conservative in many ways but they have largely been immune to anti vaccine conspiracy theories. 

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

The exact same pattern was detected in California's recent recall election where Asian, especially Vietnamese, areas swung significantly against the Recall compared to the 2020 Presidential election due to the centrality of pandemic restrictions during the campaign. Asian voters may be conservative in many ways but they have largely been immune to anti vaccine conspiracy theories. 

That's other data points I reference. OC obviously gets all the attention, but I checked out a few other counties that have easily downloadable precinct data. The only places in SF, despite being Newsom's home turf, that swung towards the Democrats when compared to Biden's margins have high East Asian populations: Sunset, China/Japantown, and the Excelsior. The were noticeable Democratic Primary turnout increases in East Asian parts on NYC like Queens during the summer. I suspect we might se something similar in the gubernatorial elections in a few weeks.

Important to remember Asian in US =/= East Asian, whereas Canada separates the East and Southern categories. Plenty of Asian voters in both upcoming states and in other parts of California fall under the latter subcategory.

[TwinGeeks99]

CBC News has called Nanaimo-Ladysmith for the NDP, and with that all 338 ridings have been called.

Final seat results:

LIB - 159 (+2)
CON - 119 (-2)
BQ - 33 (+1)
NDP - 25 (+1)
GRN - 2 (-1)
IND - 0 (-1)
PPC - 0 (NC)

[politicallefty]

I really don't think that these Edmonton results are good news for the Liberals at all. Centre and Mill Woods were the two ridings in the city that the Liberals targeted (naturally, since those were the two they won in 2015) and they made a serious effort in both of them. In neither riding did they meaningfully improve their own share of the vote; for all the work that the Liberal campaign put in, both ridings experienced a straight CPC to NDP swing. In Centre the drop in the Conservative vote was enough to deliver the seat to the Liberals, but voters clearly did not believe that the Liberals were the only non-Conservative option, and come next election Randy Boissonnault will have to defend his seat from both ends. In Mill Woods the NDP candidate did not do nearly as well, but as a result the Conservative vote failed to drop far enough for the Liberal candidate to pick up the seat. Again, this is not a result that is suggestive of any real Liberal strength.

That's a fair point and I'll give you that. I mostly meant good news for the Liberals in the sense that they're back on the board in Edmonton once again. I don't think the Liberals have ever won it by a big margin. If my knowledge of Canadian politics serves me right, I think the tongue-in-cheek nickname for the former Liberal MP was "Landslide Anne". I do think this election shows serious weakness in the CPC's Fortress Alberta, at least in Edmonton and Calgary. The only possible worry in the rest of the province is a more right-wing party, but probably a very slight worry federally.

It's worth noting the entire province of Alberta itself from 2015 to 2019 to 2021:

2015: CPC 59.5% - LPC 24.6% - NDP 11.6%
2019: CPC 69.0% - LPC 13.8% - NDP 11.6%
2021: CPC 55.3% - NDP 19.1% - LPC 15.5%

That 2019 result for the Conservatives was the highest for any party ever in Alberta, just barely higher than Mulroney's 1984 landslide. The NDP should actually be really happy with their result (not to mention winning Edmonton Griesbach and appearing to turn Edmonton Strathcona into a safe seat). From what I can find, it's their best result ever in the province federally. It beats out the 17.4% in 1988 and the 16.8% in 2011.

One other interesting thing I noticed was that the riding of Lethbridge was almost a spot-on bellwether for the entire province this election. It doesn't seem to be the case in previous elections, but I just thought that was interesting.

I think the 2021 Liberal vote in Alberta shows the effect that the increased immigrant population is having. All four Calgary ridings you mentioned had a CON-LIB swing, but the greatest was in majority-minority Skyview, and the second-greatest was in Forest Lawn which also has a bigger immigrant/minority population than Confederation and Centre. Although Centre's relatively small swing might be down to the fact that the PPC did not run a candidate there unlike the other three, removing the vote split factor.

In Edmonton, it's clear that the dominance of the AB NDP is having coattails, and helped them win Griesbach and come real close to taking Centre. As for the Liberals, Mill Woods was seen by many as the second-likeliest flip Liberal in Alberta, and is in some ways Edmonton's answer to Skyview. Indeed, like the Skyview vs Centre split in Calgary, ethno-burban Mill Woods did shift Liberal harder than Centre, but it wasn't enough. I think this might be down to the fact that Amarjeet Sohi didn't run again, and Ben Henderson didn't have the same personal vote.

Even if you factor in a PPC candidate in Calgary Centre, it seems to be a pretty resilient riding for the Conservatives. The average PPC vote in Calgary ridings was in the 4-6% range. If you straight-up take 5% from the Conservatives, they're still getting 46% and winning the riding by 17%. I still have a CBC tab open and I like that they have photos of the candidates. I don't want to bring race up like this, but it is notable that Skyview was the only one of the four Calgary ridings where they ran a minority candidate (although they did run women in two of them). If you factor in the 2011 redistributed results, this is the third election in a row with a massive swing (back and forth) in Calgary Skyview. But going back to Centre, I just don't get why the Liberals couldn't even at least make it close. However, to be honest, I've never really understood Calgary as a whole anyway. I know the whole oil business and whatnot and everything else, but it's a huge city and really unlike anything either in Canada or the US.

I have a better feel for Edmonton. It's long been a good city for the NDP. Apart from getting wiped out in 1993, they've held a seat there in the provincial legislature since 1982. In terms of provincial politics, it's always seemed like the Liberals used to do well in Calgary and the NDP had Edmonton. (Even more interestingly, the NDP held a rural Alberta provincial riding from 1971-1984. It was held by Grant Notley until his death in a plane crash. For those reading that don't know, yes, his daughter is none other than Rachel Notley.) It seems like any efforts in this election by the Alberta NDP are also attempts to build the grassroots movement for the next provincial election. This past month or so can kill two birds with one stone. I've always felt the Alberta NDP's biggest puzzle is Calgary. They dominated the city in 2015 on a split vote, but only hold three seats now. Interestingly, the strong NDP Calgary-McCall provincial riding seems to overlap with federal Skyview one. However, the other two provincial NDP Calgary seats seem to overlap with resilient CPC seats (it looks Centre and Confederation). Unless there's something to pull votes on the right, it feels like the Alberta NDP could win the popular vote by several points and still lose because they're getting 2015 numbers in Edmonton and not enough in Calgary. If I remember correctly, Edmonton, Calgary, and everything else are all about one third each.

I apologize if I went on a long-winded tangent. Ever since the 2015 provincial election, I've found Alberta to be quite interesting. This election certainly doesn't change that. It's come a long way from being the most boring province in Canadian politics (a "trophy" that now almost certainly belongs to Saskatchewan).

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

With all polls in, Portage-Lisgar is now 22% PPC.

[politicallefty]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

With all polls in, Portage-Lisgar is now 22% PPC.

Rural Western Canada is as strongly right-wing as it's ever been. Battle River-Crowfoot looks to be the strongest seat for the CPC, but in terms of actual vote margin, it looks like it was Foothills on account of higher turnout. The former still looks to be the most right-wing riding in the country, with the CPC, PPC, and Maverick Party combining to nearly 85%. That's actually down from the over 88% the combined parties got in 2019.

[adma]

Even if you factor in a PPC candidate in Calgary Centre, it seems to be a pretty resilient riding for the Conservatives. The average PPC vote in Calgary ridings was in the 4-6% range. If you straight-up take 5% from the Conservatives, they're still getting 46% and winning the riding by 17%. I still have a CBC tab open and I like that they have photos of the candidates. I don't want to bring race up like this, but it is notable that Skyview was the only one of the four Calgary ridings where they ran a minority candidate (although they did run women in two of them). If you factor in the 2011 redistributed results, this is the third election in a row with a massive swing (back and forth) in Calgary Skyview. But going back to Centre, I just don't get why the Liberals couldn't even at least make it close. However, to be honest, I've never really understood Calgary as a whole anyway. I know the whole oil business and whatnot and everything else, but it's a huge city and really unlike anything either in Canada or the US.

I have a better feel for Edmonton. It's long been a good city for the NDP. Apart from getting wiped out in 1993, they've held a seat there in the provincial legislature since 1982. In terms of provincial politics, it's always seemed like the Liberals used to do well in Calgary and the NDP had Edmonton. (Even more interestingly, the NDP held a rural Alberta provincial riding from 1971-1984. It was held by Grant Notley until his death in a plane crash. For those reading that don't know, yes, his daughter is none other than Rachel Notley.) It seems like any efforts in this election by the Alberta NDP are also attempts to build the grassroots movement for the next provincial election. This past month or so can kill two birds with one stone. I've always felt the Alberta NDP's biggest puzzle is Calgary. They dominated the city in 2015 on a split vote, but only hold three seats now. Interestingly, the strong NDP Calgary-McCall provincial riding seems to overlap with federal Skyview one. However, the other two provincial NDP Calgary seats seem to overlap with resilient CPC seats (it looks Centre and Confederation). Unless there's something to pull votes on the right, it feels like the Alberta NDP could win the popular vote by several points and still lose because they're getting 2015 numbers in Edmonton and not enough in Calgary. If I remember correctly, Edmonton, Calgary, and everything else are all about one third each.

An offbeat, paradoxical spin I might put on Calgary Centre is that O'Toole's establishment moderation plays well there, more so than in the other Calgary ridings.

Another thing this time is the unresolved conundrum of the *federal* NDP in Calgary, where they managed 15-20% in all but one riding (falling just a bit short in Signal Hill)--suggesting that maybe *they* should give it a better go in future runs.  (Though interestingly, it was only in the southern 3-riding tier--the most "Conservative", the least "Nenshi"--that the NDP finished 2nd.  They were also Calgary's only 5%+ PPC ridings *except for* Forest Lawn, which was by far their best and *also* had the best NDP share--and perhaps for racialized reasons, as the CPC incumbent was the only POC of the lot)

[adma]

Rural Western Canada is as strongly right-wing as it's ever been. Battle River-Crowfoot looks to be the strongest seat for the CPC, but in terms of actual vote margin, it looks like it was Foothills on account of higher turnout. The former still looks to be the most right-wing riding in the country, with the CPC, PPC, and Maverick Party combining to nearly 85%. That's actually down from the over 88% the combined parties got in 2019.

It seems like there, too, there was dead-cat-bouncing off Notleyesque NDP good will; for that riding, 9.79% is astronomical (and higher than in the differently-drawn Crowfoot in '11, one of only 2 single-digit NDP shares that year.  The other being none other than Portage-Lisgar--which *itself* is now over 10% NDP,)

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

With all polls in, Portage-Lisgar is now 22% PPC.

Rural Western Canada is as strongly right-wing as it's ever been. Battle River-Crowfoot looks to be the strongest seat for the CPC, but in terms of actual vote margin, it looks like it was Foothills on account of higher turnout. The former still looks to be the most right-wing riding in the country, with the CPC, PPC, and Maverick Party combining to nearly 85%. That's actually down from the over 88% the combined parties got in 2019.

Souris-Moose Mountain in SK was better for the Tories, though I'm not sure what the combined right wing vote was.

[adma]

SNIP

The exact same pattern was detected in California's recent recall election where Asian, especially Vietnamese, areas swung significantly against the Recall compared to the 2020 Presidential election due to the centrality of pandemic restrictions during the campaign. Asian voters may be conservative in many ways but they have largely been immune to anti vaccine conspiracy theories. 

That's other data points I reference. OC obviously gets all the attention, but I checked out a few other counties that have easily downloadable precinct data. The only places in SF, despite being Newsom's home turf, that swung towards the Democrats when compared to Biden's margins have high East Asian populations: Sunset, China/Japantown, and the Excelsior. The were noticeable Democratic Primary turnout increases in East Asian parts on NYC like Queens during the summer. I suspect we might se something similar in the gubernatorial elections in a few weeks.

Important to remember Asian in US =/= East Asian, whereas Canada separates the East and Southern categories. Plenty of Asian voters in both upcoming states and in other parts of California fall under the latter subcategory.

I hate to say it, but I wonder if a certain right-leaning contingent doesn't care, because in their eyes the "China Virus" is all a setup.  Which leaves the Conservatives caught between a rock and a hard place, and which is why they're impelled to softpedal their stance on masks and vaxx because they *need* that racist-conspirazoid vote in order to "unite the right"...

[DistingFlyer]

Validated results for thirteen ridings now in:

Halifax West (Liberal hold)
Bellechasse - Les Etchemins - Levis (Conservative hold)
Louis-Saint-Laurent (Conservative hold)
Pierrefonds - Dollard (Liberal hold)
Barrie - Innisfill (Conservative hold)
Brantford - Brant (Conservative hold)
London - Fanshawe (NDP hold)
Oshawa (Conservative hold)
Saskatoon West (Conservative hold)
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal gain from Conservative)
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo (Conservative hold)
Port Moody - Coquitlam (NDP gain from Conservative)
Yukon (Liberal hold)

If we imagine a UK-style 'no figures until the constituency count is done' way of tallying results, then the result so far is as follows:

Conservative: 7 MPs (-2), 38.0% (+1%)
Liberal: 4 MPs (+1), 27.9% (-2%)
NDP: 2 MPs (+1), 22.2% (+2%)
BQ: 4.6% (-0%)
GP: 1.4% (-5%)
PPC: 4.9% (+3%)

[DistingFlyer]

In spite of the slight Liberal gains, the re-election rate of Ministers was actually not quite as good as last time, with 33 of 36 re-offering members of Cabinet winning (as opposed to 32 of 34 in 2019).

I put up a table showing Ministerial re-election rates from 1867 to 2019 after the last election; here's an updated version:

[politicallefty]

An offbeat, paradoxical spin I might put on Calgary Centre is that O'Toole's establishment moderation plays well there, more so than in the other Calgary ridings.

Another thing this time is the unresolved conundrum of the *federal* NDP in Calgary, where they managed 15-20% in all but one riding (falling just a bit short in Signal Hill)--suggesting that maybe *they* should give it a better go in future runs.  (Though interestingly, it was only in the southern 3-riding tier--the most "Conservative", the least "Nenshi"--that the NDP finished 2nd.  They were also Calgary's only 5%+ PPC ridings *except for* Forest Lawn, which was by far their best and *also* had the best NDP share--and perhaps for racialized reasons, as the CPC incumbent was the only POC of the lot)

That's as good as explanation as any for what happened in Calgary Centre. I admit I didn't really follow this election until the very end, so my first time seeing an actual video of Erin O'Toole was his concession speech. He comes across far friendlier than any CPC leader I've seen. He kind of has that friendly next-door neighbour approach. I don't think he's the reason the Conservatives lost. Canadians just aren't that tired of a Liberal Government at this point. Give it a few more years and the voters tire of the incumbent party. As far as Conservative leaders go, O'Toole is definitely one of the least objectionable. The problem is that he's probably going to be sacked and the leadership will return to a right-wing white male from Alberta or Saskatchewan.

An NDP vote in southern Calgary is almost as meaningless as one in rural Alberta. That's Stephen Harper/Jason Kenney territory. It's about as meaningful as a Conservative vote in the heart of Montreal. You can't blame the loss of Skyview on having a bad candidate. The Conservative incumbent was a woman of colour.

In terms of Rachel Notley pulling off another majority government, it seems like the NDP will have to get a near 2015 result in Edmonton, win a strong majority of seats in Calgary, and pick off a few small city/rural ridings. You mention the issue for the federal NDP in Calgary. The Alberta NDP still has its work cut out for it.

Souris-Moose Mountain in SK was better for the Tories, though I'm not sure what the combined right wing vote was.

I overlooked that seat, but you're right. Saskatchewan takes another right-wing prize from Alberta. That seat has 76.3% for the CPC and a combined right-wing vote of 87.9%. It also only has a population of 72k, while the two Alberta seats are over 110k.