2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[jaichind]

When does the first polls close?  I assume Newfoundland at 7pm EST?

[jaichind]

In Newfoundland and Labrador CPC area ahead or very close in 3 seats where there has been a good amount of the vote coming in.  Most likely they will not win any of them but vote share wise this seems like good news for them so far.

[jaichind]

PPC seems to range from 2% to 5%

[jaichind]

The GPC vote share look pretty ugly for them so far.

[jaichind]

The GPC vote share look pretty ugly for them so far.

Would help if they had candidates.

I am talking about places where they are running candidates.  They all seem to be around 1%

[jaichind]

PPC vote share in places like NB looks fairly respectable.  Could be a trend for the rest of Canada.

[jaichind]

LPC vote share seems to be lower than 2019.  This is pretty bad news for them when the GPC vote share collapsed which would mean CPC and NDP must have gained from 2019 even factoring in PPC.

[jaichind]

why does CPC have 34 seats with leads ? I thought there was only 1 Quebec riding in the Atlantic time zone ?

[jaichind]

why does CPC have 34 seats with leads ? I thought there was only 1 Quebec riding in the Atlantic time zone ?

CBC just seems to have explained my question .. It seems it is a mistake

[jaichind]

CPC lead Fredericton!

That would be so funny if the GCP LPC and NDP split lets the CPC in.

[jaichind]

Malpeque Liberal hold.

Only three seats remain undecided in N&L/PEI/NS: St. John's East, where Liberals currently narrowly lead the NDP (would be a gain); Halifax, where Liberals are holding off the NDP; and Sydney-Victoria, where the Tories are narrowly leading the Liberals (would be a gain). Only St. John's East looks actually too close to call; the other two should probably have checkmarks soon.

Still a decent amount left in New Brunswick, though. And the rest of Canada, of course.

Where are you seeing that call   ? CBC has not called Malpeque yet

[jaichind]

I have seen enough, conservatives will win the popular vote.

Are you sure about that?  Once the VBM comes in I suspect LPC will narrowly edge out CPC.

[jaichind]

Base on current leads NDP would have gained zero seats from LPC.  Amazing.  It seems to me Jagmeet Singh has to go. 

[jaichind]

What do you all think of this rather troubling take in which Maxime Bernier succeeded in not only preventing Erin O'Toole from winning the election with a Conservative minority government, but also made abundantly clear to all that no future aspiring Conservative leader can hope to compete without his followers' acquiescence?

Canada’s far-right fringe is getting stronger

From what I was able to gather, the People's Party is essentially the Canadian version of the MAGAfied Republican Party.  

Well, did PPC really prevent a CPC victory ? I looked around and even making the assumption of 90% of the PPC vote went CPC which is optimistic I could only find 10 seats that CPC could have won that they did not (5 from LPC, 4 from NDP and 1 from BQ.)  That would not have added up to a CPC victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/09/21/these-students-also-gave-trudeau-a-minority-but-in-their-mock-election-they-chose-a-different-official-opposition.html

"These students also gave Trudeau a minority. But in their mock election, they chose a different official Opposition"

        Seats  Vote share
LPC    116    24%
NDP   106    29%
CPC    92     25%
BQ     20       2%
GPC    3       10%

So even with the student vote LPC found a way to win a plurality while losing the popular vote, in fact coming in third.

[jaichind]

What do you all think of this rather troubling take in which Maxime Bernier succeeded in not only preventing Erin O'Toole from winning the election with a Conservative minority government, but also made abundantly clear to all that no future aspiring Conservative leader can hope to compete without his followers' acquiescence?

Canada’s far-right fringe is getting stronger

From what I was able to gather, the People's Party is essentially the Canadian version of the MAGAfied Republican Party.  

Well, did PPC really prevent a CPC victory ? I looked around and even making the assumption of 90% of the PPC vote went CPC which is optimistic I could only find 10 seats that CPC could have won that they did not (5 from LPC, 4 from NDP and 1 from BQ.)  That would not have added up to a CPC victory.

I take that back.  I did some more looking and I now find 20 seats that CPC could have won had they won 90% of the PPC vote.  15 came from LPC, 4 came from NDP and 1 from BQ.  But that would still have LPC beating CPC 143 to 139 in terms of seat count.

This means in a parallel universe where CPC and PPC merged the PPC almost entirely transferred its entire vote to CPC the CPC would have beat LPC by over 6% but would have still lost the seat count 143 to 139,  Amazing how resilient the LPC plurality is.

[jaichind]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

[jaichind]

If I were shown vote share by province ahead of time I would have expected a neck-to-neck race between LPC and CPC for largest party.

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3149738/conservative-vote-plunged-canadas-most-chinese-electorates-did?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3149738

"Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Did party pay price for tough stance on Beijing?"

I am surprised this actually made a difference.  Most of the BC Chinese are from HK and all things equal I would think they would vote the opposite of what the CCP tells them to vote for.  A bunch of them do have financial ties to HK but for the majority I cannot imagine the amount of money involved would make any sort of difference.

I mean, I am pro-CCP overall but I do not care what they say, I am voting Trump no matter what.  And we are talking about people that are more anti-CCP than pro-CCP.

[jaichind]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

[jaichind]

After most of VBM ballots came in it seems now CPC-LPC vote share gap have narrowed a bit relative to 2019 versus widening on election night.

[jaichind]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

[jaichind]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

My reading of the Chinese language media seems to indicate that the pro-PRC Global Times made a big deal of how Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daugher of the Huawei patriarch) is being held for trial by the Canadian government based on, as they claim, request of USA in the run up to the election.  These Global Times articles seems to tie the CPC to these Canadian moves during the election season. Many BC Chinese still have a lot of economic ties to PRC/HK so perhaps this case has them concerned that these business ties could get them in legal trouble in Canada unless CPC can be kept out of government ?  I am surprised that this would work.

On the other hand, just today it seems the US Justice department made a deal with Meng Wanzhou for her to be able to return to the PRC.   Payback for getting the Canadian Chinese to vote the right way ?

Probably none of this. The Conservative's went ham against the CCP - the two Michaels, Huawei, the Xinjiang condemnation - cause they believed it worked. Remember that many Chinese Canadians are decedents of non-mainlanders who fled the advance or legal transition of their territory to CCP control, an inverse of the usual migration situation. A Brain Gain. Richmond is very wealthy and their previous two MPs were very much on the cultural right.

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

I totally agree with you on the first point that is why I doubt this theory.  You second point does seem to make sense and does sound plausible.