2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Utah Neolib]

Did O’Toole really ever have a chance?

[mileslunn]

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:


Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:


Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

[mileslunn]

Did O’Tooele really ever have a chance?

For a majority no.  For a minority yes but it was always a long shot and required all the stars to align perfectly and very seldom does that happen.  That being said had in 2017 they chosen him instead of Scheer, I think its quite possible he would be PM today as conditions in 2019 were much more favourable for Tories and O'Toole is without question a better candidate than Scheer ever was.  If Scheer were leader this time around, PPC may have done worse, but Tories likely would have fallen below 100 seats and probably struggled to get to 30% mark, most likely in high 20s.

[Oryxslayer]

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:

Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

If you are to do this, I wouldn't include the Bloc on the same side as the LPC. Either a third pole or the right. The Bloc doesn't have an ideology these days besides localism, but that localism ties it at the hip to the CAQ and Legault. We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole. But the Bloc isn't a CPC ally, and if it was a two-party system the Bloc would still play the part of a regional party. Of course, if it was a two party system, the Liberal party would lose voters to the CPC as in picks up the present NDP base - ending us up close to 50-50,  but that is a whole other can of worms.

[Suburbia]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

[S019]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

This the wrong thread to ask this.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:

Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

If you are to do this, I wouldn't include the Bloc on the same side as the LPC. Either a third pole or the right. The Bloc doesn't have an ideology these days besides localism, but that localism ties it at the hip to the CAQ and Legault. We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole. But the Bloc isn't a CPC ally, and if it was a two-party system the Bloc would still play the part of a regional party. Of course, if it was a two party system, the Liberal party would lose voters to the CPC as in picks up the present NDP base - ending us up close to 50-50,  but that is a whole other can of worms.

It might make sense to allot ~60% of Lib votes to the left, and ~40% to the right on any such map.

[DistingFlyer]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

[adma]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

Or Lionel Conacher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Conacher

[Benjamin Frank]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

Or Lionel Conacher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Conacher

Thomas Steen was a star hockey player for the Winnipeg Jets and ran for the Conservatives federally in 2008 in Elmwood-Transcona.

Longtime CBC Hockey Night in Canada analyst Howie Meeker ("shoot the puck!", "Keep your stick on the ice") was a Progressive Conservative M.P while still playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, from 1951-1953.

Ron Lemieux a Manitoba New Democratic MLA and cabinet minister was drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins but never made it to the NHL, though he did play minor league hockey. I believe he suffered a career ending injury.

[StateBoiler]

We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole.

Evidence please.

Anyway, Paul Wells on his Facebook posted "so in 3 separate conversations in Ottawa the past few days, 3 different people asked me 'so what do you think Chrystia Freeland is up to nowadays?' "

[Flyersfan232]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:

Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

If you are to do this, I wouldn't include the Bloc on the same side as the LPC. Either a third pole or the right. The Bloc doesn't have an ideology these days besides localism, but that localism ties it at the hip to the CAQ and Legault. We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole. But the Bloc isn't a CPC ally, and if it was a two-party system the Bloc would still play the part of a regional party. Of course, if it was a two party system, the Liberal party would lose voters to the CPC as in picks up the present NDP base - ending us up close to 50-50,  but that is a whole other can of worms.

It might make sense to allot ~60% of Lib votes to the left, and ~40% to the right on any such map.

depends on there background outside of hockey.

[Oryxslayer]

We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole.

Evidence please.

Anyway, Paul Wells on his Facebook posted "so in 3 separate conversations in Ottawa the past few days, 3 different people asked me 'so what do you think Chrystia Freeland is up to nowadays?' "

Legault endorsing specifically a CPC led government. The Bloc's modern political existence is dependent on the CAQ - who look set to improve their majorities next year BTW - whose policies conflict with the national Liberals and were tacitly endorsed by the national Conservatives. There is a reason why the Bloc defends Quebec's French-style nationality laws. Going against Legault would arguably be suicide.

Reminder that the Bloc are not factionally ideological anymore, they are an amorphous tent that captures all parts of the political spectrum - as long as they support Quebec uniqueness and a Quebec voice, and therefore by extension, the CAQ,

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

[StateBoiler]

We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole.

Evidence please.

Anyway, Paul Wells on his Facebook posted "so in 3 separate conversations in Ottawa the past few days, 3 different people asked me 'so what do you think Chrystia Freeland is up to nowadays?' "

Legault endorsing specifically a CPC led government. The Bloc's modern political existence is dependent on the CAQ - who look set to improve their majorities next year BTW - whose policies conflict with the national Liberals and were tacitly endorsed by the national Conservatives. There is a reason why the Bloc defends Quebec's French-style nationality laws. Going against Legault would arguably be suicide.

Reminder that the Bloc are not factionally ideological anymore, they are an amorphous tent that captures all parts of the political spectrum - as long as they support Quebec uniqueness and a Quebec voice, and therefore by extension, the CAQ,

Right, so you think everyone in this amorphous tent wanted O'Toole to be Prime Minister? I'm sure some did, but your thought process is one that can exist on paper in theory but falls apart a bit trying it practically.

[DL]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

These are from another era, but Bruce Kidd who was an track and field Olympian once upon a time ran for the NDP once and has always been supportive and I seem to recall Eric Nesterenko who was a hockey star in the 1960s campaigned with Tommy Douglas in Manitoba.

Didn't the NDP run a candidate this election in Levis, QC who had been a Olympic medallist?   

[DC Al Fine]

We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole.

Evidence please.

Anyway, Paul Wells on his Facebook posted "so in 3 separate conversations in Ottawa the past few days, 3 different people asked me 'so what do you think Chrystia Freeland is up to nowadays?' "

Legault endorsing specifically a CPC led government. The Bloc's modern political existence is dependent on the CAQ - who look set to improve their majorities next year BTW - whose policies conflict with the national Liberals and were tacitly endorsed by the national Conservatives. There is a reason why the Bloc defends Quebec's French-style nationality laws. Going against Legault would arguably be suicide.

Reminder that the Bloc are not factionally ideological anymore, they are an amorphous tent that captures all parts of the political spectrum - as long as they support Quebec uniqueness and a Quebec voice, and therefore by extension, the CAQ,

Right, so you think everyone in this amorphous tent wanted O'Toole to be Prime Minister? I'm sure some did, but your thought process is one that can exist on paper in theory but falls apart a bit trying it practically.

Not everyone in the tent needs to want O'Toole as PM.

The logic is simply that in the event that Con>Lib, Lib+NDP<Majority, the Tories would be able to outbid the Liberals on provincial autonomy and would be willing to play ball on Bill 21. Attempting to match the Tories on those issues would cause major issues for the Liberals and/or NDP, in what would already be a very awkward arrangement. Hence it would be easier to just negotiate with the Tories on a case by case basis.

[DistingFlyer]

Not sure why I never made a swing map for 2015 since I did one for 2019 & 2021 (see above post), but decided to fix that oversight:



The largest swing was in Gatineau, at 37.8% NDP-Liberal.

The Tory swings out west were generally in NDP/Conservative ridings where the Liberals rose but stayed third.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

Didn't the NDP run a candidate this election in Levis, QC who had been a Olympic medallist?   

I didn't know this! Though it appears she didn't win any Olympic medals.

[King of Kensington]

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

I mean, I'm sure all the places you mentioned have changed quite a bit over the decades, but the provincial party, which is famously very competent and not at all a human disaster, still wins them all without too much trouble, so maybe, just maybe this line, which gets wheeled out every time a social democratic party does badly, does not cover all the factors involved.

[adma]

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

I mean, I'm sure all the places you mentioned have changed quite a bit over the decades, but the provincial party, which is famously very competent and not at all a human disaster, still wins them all without too much trouble, so maybe, just maybe this line, which gets wheeled out every time a social democratic party does badly, does not cover all the factors involved.

And indeed, it's hard to see the *provincial* Nickel Belt falling or under threat except in a 1995 circumstance.  On such grounds, the erosion carries an aura of being not necessarily terminal--nonetheless, when it comes to all the mewling about Quebec being lost under Jagmeet, maybe more must be said about the blue-collar "red wall Labour" vote being neglected under Jagmeet.  Or as I've put it, those who want "meat and potatoes" issues addressed without arbitrary "Punjabi" stunting on behalf of the TikTok crowd...

[Benjamin Frank]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

Didn't the NDP run a candidate this election in Levis, QC who had been a Olympic medallist?   

I didn't know this! Though it appears she didn't win any Olympic medals.

Tommy Douglas himself was a champion amateur boxer.  Betty Baxter ran for the NDP against Kim Campbell in 1993 in Vancouver Centre, she was a former national volleyball team member who was the coach of the women's national volleyball team until she was fired for being a lesbian. 

For those who dislike 'identity politics' keep in mind that she was fired for being a lesbian less than 40 years ago, well within the life span of many living people. 

As far as I can recall though, in that campaign, Betty Baxter emphasized more her business background, as she owned a sports education consulting company.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

The swing map piqued my interest, especially looking at the GTA. Looks like the Conservatives did make gains in the parts of Toronto and the 905 that are considered essential to victory - Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Durham region, and most of Toronto's outer boroughs. But in a rather cruel outcome of electoral calculus, these places where they had a positive swing are the more LPC-friendly parts and their swing wasn't big enough - but the places that swung away from the Tories - Markham, Richmond Hill, and "Chinese Scarborough", swung hard, and those were the part of the GTA with a bigger Tory base to begin with.

Liberals were also hit with a similar phenomenon in Greater Montreal. Looks like they made gains on the North Shore (where they were never going to win many seats), and the islands of Montreal and Laval (where they were always going to dominate). But the part of Greater Montreal where they could have picked up seats, the South Shore/Montérégie, swung towards the Bloc.

So what this means is the Tories had a positive PV swing in the GTA but net lost one seat, while the Liberals had a PV swing in Greater Mtl but net lost one seat (assuming Châteauguay-Lacolle stays Bloc).

In BC, the Liberals benefited from vote efficiency in an exceptional way. Outside Metro Vancouver, all ridings either swung NDP or Tory - doesn't matter, those places were never voting Liberal anyway. The more Liberal-friendly part of BC, Metro Vancouver, swung opposite to the rest of the province, giving the Liberals a net pickup of five seats

[mileslunn]

Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.