2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Tintrlvr]

One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

Would it not be because of the unique identity - that area is 90% Francophone I believe and the same applies across the rest of Francophone New Brunswick. Whereas that part of Maine is just a more Conservative part of rural New England. Whereas the equivalent conservative (small c) part of New Brunswick is the area covered by Tobique Mactaquac.

There are a significant number of Francophones in Aroostook County, Maine, too, though a lot fewer than in Madawaska of course. I think around 20%. The really Francophone parts of Aroostook County, such as Fort Kent (63% speak French at home) and Van Buren (77% speak French at home), are still Democratic, though much less so than 10 years ago. It's more places like Caribou and Presque Isle, where the Francophone population is much smaller, that are solidly Republican now.

[adma]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

All the same, I wouldn't make too much of a "trending Liberal" pattern, because that'd simply be picking up where the noughts left off (David Anderson's federal tenure, Keith Martin's party switch, the Saanich-GI 2008 result).  And it'd be mostly a matter of sucking up the energy of the Greens as well as that of a no-longer-palatable-around-these-parts Conservative party--that is, Victoria and environs turning into another Guelph or Kingston--but also, maybe, some kind of 90s-style "federal NDP = useless" epiphany to seal the deal...

[adma]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

[adma]

One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

Would it not be because of the unique identity - that area is 90% Francophone I believe and the same applies across the rest of Francophone New Brunswick. Whereas that part of Maine is just a more Conservative part of rural New England. Whereas the equivalent conservative (small c) part of New Brunswick is the area covered by Tobique Mactaquac.

For Madawaska's recent Conservative strength, you can blame the personal machine of Bernard Valcourt, who was an electoral asset...until he wasn't (in 2015).  And they're still recoiling from that.

[Benjamin Frank]

It's very corrosive for Conservatives to blame their poor performance among Chinese-Canadians on interference on a hostile foreign power

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

Yeah, I agree.  They were "masking before masking was cool", so to speak, so it all comes second nature to them--and of course, the SARS crisis had a particular immediacy when it came to Toronto's Chinese.  So to them, CPC soft-pedalling would seem tin-eared, and PPC militancy outright unseemly.  (And within a society and culture marked by resolute discipline, Bernierite freedom-mongering is totally off-orbit--though one can understand how they might have found Stephen Harper's stolidity admirable.)

This community took the virus very seriously, well before it was even named COVID-19. Anecdotally, the malls of Richmond, which are normally bustling with shoppers and diners, became virtually dead as early as February 2020 - a whole month before the rest of the western world took notice. The idea that COVID-19 could be handwaved away as "no big deal" is simply terrifying, especially since the governments in the Chinese-speaking world took a zero tolerance policy towards the virus. It was no surprise that the predominately Chinese-Canadian municipalities had a much lower case rate and a much higher vaccination rate. Hence, the CPC's pandering to anti-vaxxers, and calling Trudeau's proposal for vaccine mandates as "divisive", struck this politically heterogenous group as dangerous.

This is something that definitely highlights a Conservative inconsistency.

Tasha Kheiriddin, a National Post columnist, who is essentially the mouthpiece of the Conservative Party in the press called for a Parliamentary investigation (or some other form of investigation) into the (alleged) 'Chinese interference' in the Canadian election.

This is the Conservative and right wing media inconsistency:

The Canadian mainstream media and the Conservatives both opposed C-10 the bill from Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault that would have attempted to regulate misinformation on social media. I'm pretty sure among those in opposition was Tasha Kheiriddin But, that is actually besides the point.

So, this article mentions 'foreign interference' but what exactly does that mean?  If a foreign government puts out misinformation but it's reposted by a Canadian or a non-citizen living in Canada, is that foreign interference?  don't see how that could be considered 'foreign interference' if it's reposted by somebody legally living in Canada.  Prior to the election, as is evidenced by their opposition to C-10, the Conservatives and the mainstream media clearly didn't consider it 'foreign interference' either.  

Prior to the election, the mainstream media and the Conservatives would have said this investigation that Tasha Kheiriddin is asking for is potentially chilling to free speech.  After all, if a person didn't know where some 'fact' originated and was concerned that it might have originated from a foreign government and that their facebook or twitter post could be taken down as a result and that they might get suspended from facebook or twitter over it, obviously they're likely to think twice before posting.

However, I personally agree with her.  I think misinformation is corrosive in a democracy, and needs regulation.  However, I think this is true whether it is begins from a foreign source or a domestic source. So, if there is any such investigation by Parliament into this alleged Chinese interference that allegedly was to hurt the Conservative election chances, it can only end up leading to the Conservatives and the National Post anyway, if not ultimately supporting C-10. then certainly agreeing with at least some of the basic principles behind C-10 and off of their absolutist position in favor of 'free speech.'

[Benjamin Frank]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

[Benjamin Frank]

In the riding of Chateauguay-La Colle, the only riding in Quebec that changed from the last election, there will be a recount.  Apparently a 41 vote total for a candidate was recorded as 410 votes.  I guess it isn't known which party benefited, but since the Liberal lost by less than 300 votes, if it was the Bloc, that would flip the riding back to the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Now agree on indigenous although Kenora has largest indigenous population and went Tory.  I think bigger problem there is turnout tends to be very low amongst indigenous voters thus why Tories can win ridings like Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River which they would have no hope at winning if indigenous voters turned out in similar numbers to white voters and ditto Kenora.  One big one holding it back though is Francophone voters however.  While Harper did reasonably well amongst Francophones outside Quebec, O'Toole did horrible here.  Predominately Francophone ridings in New Brunswick were the Tories worst showings in Atlantic Canada outside Halifax and St. John's while only predominately rural riding Liberals won in Southern Ontario was Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which is majority Francophone.  I think both Ford's cuts to French language services and Blaine Higgs being unilingual had a negative spillover federally. 

[adma]

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Now agree on indigenous although Kenora has largest indigenous population and went Tory.  I think bigger problem there is turnout tends to be very low amongst indigenous voters thus why Tories can win ridings like Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River which they would have no hope at winning if indigenous voters turned out in similar numbers to white voters and ditto Kenora.  One big one holding it back though is Francophone voters however.  While Harper did reasonably well amongst Francophones outside Quebec, O'Toole did horrible here.  Predominately Francophone ridings in New Brunswick were the Tories worst showings in Atlantic Canada outside Halifax and St. John's while only predominately rural riding Liberals won in Southern Ontario was Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which is majority Francophone.  I think both Ford's cuts to French language services and Blaine Higgs being unilingual had a negative spillover federally. 

Yeah, if unions were such a negative thing, then Oshawa wouldn't be eternally, stubbornly (if often marginally or semi-marginally) Conservative, nor would Windsor/Essex be trending in that direction.

And as for indigenous: yes, Kenora should stand as a warning.  And as for Francophone: that, too, is a patchy thing in Northern Ontario--there isn't anything as sweeping and monolithic as Acadian New Brunswick up there--and it didn't prevent ridings like Nickel Belt or Timmins-James Bay from giving a united-right plurality.  Indeed, the presence of Francophone and FN forces could further motivate the right to "counter-vote" the rest...

[Benjamin Frank]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

[adma]

Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

True, but note the reduced margins in Skeena and North Island as well as Charlie Angus's swooning share.  There's vulnerability around the edges.

That said, you're correct in that there *is* a never-say-never resilience to the NDP, so I wouldn't write things off for them completely or terminally--it helps that unlike Labour in Britain, they've never carried the stigma of being a federal "party of government".  And hey--in Oshawa, their share remained stable, and the Con share went up less than a point, even though O'Toole's next door.  If there's anyplace that's primed to put the "red wall breach" to the test, it's Canada--sort of like how a 2016-style populist Berniecrat would have a better chance in Iron Range Minnesota than a rank-and-file mainstream Dem or an overly woke/millennial AOC type.  (All it requires is augmenting Jagmeet's existing base in the latter.)

[Benjamin Frank]

Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

True, but note the reduced margins in Skeena and North Island as well as Charlie Angus's swooning share.  There's vulnerability around the edges.

That said, you're correct in that there *is* a never-say-never resilience to the NDP, so I wouldn't write things off for them completely or terminally--it helps that unlike Labour in Britain, they've never carried the stigma of being a federal "party of government".  And hey--in Oshawa, their share remained stable, and the Con share went up less than a point, even though O'Toole's next door.  If there's anyplace that's primed to put the "red wall breach" to the test, it's Canada--sort of like how a 2016-style populist Berniecrat would have a better chance in Iron Range Minnesota than a rank-and-file mainstream Dem or an overly woke/millennial AOC type.  (All it requires is augmenting Jagmeet's existing base in the latter.)

North Island has long been competitive between the NDP and the Conservatives. Conservative John Duncan represented the area from 2004-2006 and from 2008-2015.

There are parts of Northern Vancouver Island that are much more right leaning than Vancouver Island as a whole: specifically Parksville-Qualicum and some of the Comox area.

[mileslunn]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

[Хahar 🤔]

In the specific case of Kenora, it's worth remembering that it's the only place in the country with a genuine Lib-Lab tradition. Bob Nault made use of this during his political career, and even though the Liberal vote fell off this time around it presumably still has an impact.

[adma]

In the specific case of Kenora, it's worth remembering that it's the only place in the country with a genuine Lib-Lab tradition. Bob Nault made use of this during his political career, and even though the Liberal vote fell off this time around it presumably still has an impact.

It does have that tradition; but it's hard to tell how much use that was after Nault's first election in 1988--with the Chretien effect raising all Liberal ships in Ontario, and w/the NDP remaining at least 20% in all subsequent elections except 1993, it might be argued that "Lib-Lab" became but a unite-the-left-under-the-Libs affectation by that point, little different from, say, Sheila Copps Liberalism in Hamilton.  And maybe the strongest demonstration of the declining value of "Lib-Lab" is how the provincial territorial dynamic flipped into an NDP-PC binary under Howard Hampton and successors this century--and even the present weak Lib result might be seen as an "organic" echo of that.

[lilTommy]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

What's interesting on VanIsland is that the NDP(more so) and CPC(lesser) and LPC(much less) are benefiting from the collapse of the Greens, 2021 vs 2019. (Using CBC so I hope they are updated!)

North Island-Powell River - NDP+3, CPC +4, GRN -7, LPC -0
Courtney-Alberni - NDP+3, CPC -1, LPC +1, GRN -8
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - NDP+6, CPC +2, GRN -8, LPC+1
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP+7, CPC+3, GRN-14(!), LPC+1
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP+9, LPC+5, CPC+3, GRN-17(!!)
Victoria - NDP+11, LPC+5, CPC+2, GRN-18(!!)
Saanich-Gulf Islands - GRN-11, CPC+3, NDP+6, LPC+2

Others have commented that there may be a trend towards the LPC, right now it's not really happening in fact the southern portion is trending much more NDP then anything else right now. The NPD is >40% in every riding but two, Nanaimo-Laydsmith and Saanich-Gulf Islands. This is the new-ish NDP heartland of the country.

It is really interesting the trend away from the NDP is some interior/north areas, and some areas swinging more to the NDP.
NDP losing (provincially) Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena in 2017, and even with a massive victory in 2020 they failed to win those seats back with only a very small increase in vote should worry the party that their old base isn't being attracted back. I think you hit it on the perception of the party by this group. However, the NDP gained Boundary-Similkameen (big swing) and Vernon-Monashee (decent swing) which are closer in to Kelowna and the lower mainland. Both also benefits of a weaker/no green.
Federally though, in Kooteny-Columbia the NDP won the same % of the vote, 37% in 2021 as they did in 2015 but failed to win the seat this time but did in 2015. The CPC lost 2% but they could afford to and still won with 43% b/c the LPC vote crashed here and pretty much all swung CPC (9% in 2021/2019 vs 19% in 2015). Where the LPC vote crashes into matters; in South Okanagan-West Boundary the LPC vote moved to the NDP, with the NDP+5, CPC-0, LPC-5, making this seat much safer for the NDP then just last election when the NDP only won by about 1% or so.

In Skeena-Bulkley Valley the margin is getting smaller, but not by much; 6% margin vs 7% in 2019. Both the NDP and CPC saw their votes increase, NDP+2, CPC+3, coming from the LPC-3 and GRN-3. We are really seeing a polarization (outside of the lower mainland) of the vote, LPC losing and their vote shifting either NDP or CPC, mirroring the politics on the provincial level. This hurts and helps the NDP, depending where you are in the province. Gaining interior ridings Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo may not be insight unless the NDP is well above +20% nationally, even if some harken back to when the NDP held this. But ridings like Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge are in sight even if the NDP is at +18% nationally.
It goes back to the NDP playing the progressive-populist-pocketbook playbook in these rural-resource-working class seats.

[Benjamin Frank]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

What's interesting on VanIsland is that the NDP(more so) and CPC(lesser) and LPC(much less) are benefiting from the collapse of the Greens, 2021 vs 2019. (Using CBC so I hope they are updated!)

North Island-Powell River - NDP+3, CPC +4, GRN -7, LPC -0
Courtney-Alberni - NDP+3, CPC -1, LPC +1, GRN -8
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - NDP+6, CPC +2, GRN -8, LPC+1
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP+7, CPC+3, GRN-14(!), LPC+1
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP+9, LPC+5, CPC+3, GRN-17(!!)
Victoria - NDP+11, LPC+5, CPC+2, GRN-18(!!)
Saanich-Gulf Islands - GRN-11, CPC+3, NDP+6, LPC+2

Others have commented that there may be a trend towards the LPC, right now it's not really happening in fact the southern portion is trending much more NDP then anything else right now. The NPD is >40% in every riding but two, Nanaimo-Laydsmith and Saanich-Gulf Islands. This is the new-ish NDP heartland of the country.

It is really interesting the trend away from the NDP is some interior/north areas, and some areas swinging more to the NDP.
NDP losing (provincially) Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena in 2017, and even with a massive victory in 2020 they failed to win those seats back with only a very small increase in vote should worry the party that their old base isn't being attracted back. I think you hit it on the perception of the party by this group. However, the NDP gained Boundary-Similkameen (big swing) and Vernon-Monashee (decent swing) which are closer in to Kelowna and the lower mainland. Both also benefits of a weaker/no green.
Federally though, in Kooteny-Columbia the NDP won the same % of the vote, 37% in 2021 as they did in 2015 but failed to win the seat this time but did in 2015. The CPC lost 2% but they could afford to and still won with 43% b/c the LPC vote crashed here and pretty much all swung CPC (9% in 2021/2019 vs 19% in 2015). Where the LPC vote crashes into matters; in South Okanagan-West Boundary the LPC vote moved to the NDP, with the NDP+5, CPC-0, LPC-5, making this seat much safer for the NDP then just last election when the NDP only won by about 1% or so.

In Skeena-Bulkley Valley the margin is getting smaller, but not by much; 6% margin vs 7% in 2019. Both the NDP and CPC saw their votes increase, NDP+2, CPC+3, coming from the LPC-3 and GRN-3. We are really seeing a polarization (outside of the lower mainland) of the vote, LPC losing and their vote shifting either NDP or CPC, mirroring the politics on the provincial level. This hurts and helps the NDP, depending where you are in the province. Gaining interior ridings Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo may not be insight unless the NDP is well above +20% nationally, even if some harken back to when the NDP held this. But ridings like Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge are in sight even if the NDP is at +18% nationally.
It goes back to the NDP playing the progressive-populist-pocketbook playbook in these rural-resource-working class seats.

1.As much as things are polarized as they are in the United States, and not too many people seem to vote for the local candidate, there does seem to be the oddly contradictory trend in both Canada and the United States, that, at least for some rookie M.Ps (and members of the House) they receive a lower share of the vote before they become incumbents.  That could have been the case with Laurel Collins in Victoria in 2015.   

2.I wouldn't call Vancouver Island the 'newish' heartland of the NDP.  Provincially, when the Liberals were in power, many New Democrats themselves would joke that Vancouver Island should separate from British Columbia and rename itself 'The People's Republic of Vancouver Island.'

[Hatman 🍁]

For those who didn't see my map on Twitter:



A lot of enlightening insights to be drawn.

[King of Kensington]

Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

[lilTommy]

Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

Some might be a "this election-fluke"
- Spadina-Fort York -> we know the last minute mess with the LPC candidate and his sexual harassment and million dollar lawsuit helped push voters to the NDP. HAD this happened a week or more out from the election instead of days... the NDP might have been able to win.

-Vancouver-Granville -> similar story in that the LPC candidate got rightfully trashed for his business dealings, and this was an open seat so we really didn't know how Wilson-Raybould's vote would spread. This riding has only been around since 2015. LPC picked up 8%, NDP picked up 21%, CPC picked up 6.

- Vancouver Centre and Guelph are interesting; In both ridings it was a repeat of 2019, same candidates for both the NDP and LPC. It looks like here we see the Greens swinging harder to the NDP (or not voting at all). Kingston the Green Candidate stepped down and endorsed the NDP so again, I think much of the vote increase is a return-home of NDP-Green voters in 2019. 

[adma]

Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

Some might be a "this election-fluke"
- Spadina-Fort York -> we know the last minute mess with the LPC candidate and his sexual harassment and million dollar lawsuit helped push voters to the NDP. HAD this happened a week or more out from the election instead of days... the NDP might have been able to win.

-Vancouver-Granville -> similar story in that the LPC candidate got rightfully trashed for his business dealings, and this was an open seat so we really didn't know how Wilson-Raybould's vote would spread. This riding has only been around since 2015. LPC picked up 8%, NDP picked up 21%, CPC picked up 6.

- Vancouver Centre and Guelph are interesting; In both ridings it was a repeat of 2019, same candidates for both the NDP and LPC. It looks like here we see the Greens swinging harder to the NDP (or not voting at all). Kingston the Green Candidate stepped down and endorsed the NDP so again, I think much of the vote increase is a return-home of NDP-Green voters in 2019. 

Granville would probably have had a significant NDP uptick anyway; judging from their 2nd place finish in '15, JWR took a lot of their vote in '19.

Newfoundland: probably deflated by, among other things, Alison Coffin hitting a brick wall last provincial election.

Halifax a clear Green-implosion beneficiary.

In QC, of course, you can tell which seats no longer had "incumbent advantage" the way they did in '19.

Windsor: Pupatello's sloppy-second run played into Masse's hands.

Humber River-Black Creek: they had a star candidate in '19 (former councillor Maria Augimeri).

Hamilton: seems like a swing-to for the white-collar and "gentrifiable", a swing-against for the blue-collar and "ungentrifiable".

Wow w/the Nickel Belt/Timmins/Churchill/Desnethe.

And there's a pair of standout significant-risers in BC you shouldn't forget: Kamloops (up 15.3%; making up for candidate catastrophe in '19) and West Van et al (11 3/4%; the "Avi effect")

[Hatman 🍁]

One wonders looking at Timmins-James Bay, Churchill and Desnethe (and the drop in Liberal fortunes in Kenora) how bad turnout must've been on reserves.

[DistingFlyer]

With only one result to be finalized and two recounts to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:


Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:


Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

[Independents for George Santos]

snip

Is that purple a PPC swing out west? I know in some of those ridings the results were like 70% CPC to 10% PPC but damn, weird to see it show up on a map.

[DistingFlyer]

Is that purple a PPC swing out west?

Yes; they didn't get into second place in many ridings, but there were a few.