2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[toaster]

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

BQ is a tough one to pin down as I wouldn't describe them as right wing, but not really left wing like were under Duceppe.  Strongest point is exurbs and rural areas which are not exactly hotbeds of left wing thinking.  Areas like Hochelaga, Sherbrooke, or Laurier-Sainte Marie which Duceppe won no longer going BQ.  At same time struggle in Chaudiere-Appalaches which is without question the most conservative part of Quebec.

This is an interesting logic.  Are we defining where political parties stand based on the historic voting patterns of the regions that voted for them?  I'm more interested in the policies that have changed that make them no longer left wing?

[mileslunn]

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

BQ is a tough one to pin down as I wouldn't describe them as right wing, but not really left wing like were under Duceppe.  Strongest point is exurbs and rural areas which are not exactly hotbeds of left wing thinking.  Areas like Hochelaga, Sherbrooke, or Laurier-Sainte Marie which Duceppe won no longer going BQ.  At same time struggle in Chaudiere-Appalaches which is without question the most conservative part of Quebec.

This is an interesting logic.  Are we defining where political parties stand based on the historic voting patterns of the regions that voted for them?  I'm more interested in the policies that have changed that make them no longer left wing?

BQ is tough to pin down.  They are more like CAQ than PQ but CAQ despite being labeled right leaning is really a mix and not clearly either.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

What makes you say that?

In addition to what others have said, I get the feeling that they'd prefer to prop up the Conservatives over the Liberals if they held the balance of power.

On the one hand, aligning more closely with the Conservatives makes strategic sense in an era where the Liberals have found an ally in the NDP. Being the only viable minority partner for the Tories gives them a lot of political capital. But on the other hand, the pipeline issue would really mess things up, because the Bloc and CPC have diametrically opposite views on the question of an east-west pipeline through Quebec. One would have to back down - the Conservatives backing down on this issue would anger most Conservative voters and make them look like complete hypocrites, and the Bloc backing down on this issue would basically ensure the end of the Bloc Quebecois as a political party with any degree of support in Quebec. The third option would be what used to happen sometimes in the Harper minorities, the Liberals give their guys a "free vote" that basically ensures that the government continues, without forcing the Liberal leader to be seen supporting Conservative policy, but that didn't work out too well for the Liberals back then.

[MaxQue]

Honestly, the Bloc just looks the closest to whomever party is in the Opposition.

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly, the Bloc just looks the closest to whomever party is in the Opposition.

This is true, but I get the feeling after 2021 that if PP were to win a minority that Legault would be whipping the BQ hard  to 'fall in line.' I get the feeling, maybe incorrectly, that a large part of the reason certain Liberal commentators don't consider PP a threat/consider him a big threat is exactly because of their perception of the BQ. Because not everyone can recognize that the post-2019 Bloc will side with the Tories if the chips are down in a narrow minority.

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

[adma]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

[MaxQue]

Honestly, the Bloc just looks the closest to whomever party is in the Opposition.

This is true, but I get the feeling after 2021 that if PP were to win a minority that Legault would be whipping the BQ hard  to 'fall in line.' I get the feeling, maybe incorrectly, that a large part of the reason certain Liberal commentators don't consider PP a threat/consider him a big threat is exactly because of their perception of the BQ. Because not everyone can recognize that the post-2019 Bloc will side with the Tories if the chips are down in a narrow minority.

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

PP and Duhaime are apparently quite close, so I don't think Legault would do that.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

[adma]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

[Hatman 🍁]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

[adma]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

[mileslunn]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Even Jill Andrews lost Forest Hill.  I think when talking about wealthy, we need to differentiate between top 10% who are upper middle class and top 1% who are rich.  Former have lots working in public sector, lawyers, professors, tech workers and those types tend to vote for progressive parties.  Top 1% includes doctors but also business owners and CEOs and latter two I think tend to vote Conservative.  To know how top 1% votes, you have to look at poll by poll breakdown not riding as a whole as in no riding are they numerous enough to make much difference.  Big reason Horgan won in upper middle class Lower Mainland ridings is unlike NDP in 90s who raised taxes on anyone in top 10%, Horgan only did on top 2%.

After losing after tax hikes, left has generally gotten smarter in ensuring tax hikes only hit very top, not upper middle class.  So I think when we talk about wealthy going NDP, we are more referring to upper middle class professionals, not your Bay Street CEO type.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Yes, I was alluding to places like Sault Ste. Marie, Vancouver Island, Oshawa, the Niagara region, even working-class Winnipeg (tho there were lots of other factors working against the NDP in Manitoba that year) - all places where you might have generically expected the NDP to do very well while surging into second across the country but where their performance proved mediocre in the end.

[mileslunn]

I also think when people say working class much like how I mentioned with wealthy, it depends on definition.  I think NDP still does well with minimum wage workers and jobs like long term care workers, servers, bar tenders, cleaning staff, retail clerks as those tend to be more urban, more likely to be female, often younger and long term and cleaning staff often immigrants.

Where struggling is more in jobs like forestry, mining, manufacturing, construction which are heavily unionized but tend to be in smaller urban centres or sometimes rural.  Fairly white, very male dominated, and often over 50.  These jobs also if you look at pay not image are solid middle class as most of those pay wages above what average Canadian makes.  And its latter not former where you are seeing Conservatives gaining from NDP.  Most ridings mentioned of blue collar shifting away have lots in latter category whereas in former its more your urban core ridings which are Liberal/NDP and Tories a distant third. 

Likewise with unions as we saw in Ontario election seems a strong divide between public and private sector unions.  Public sector unions for obvious reasons are definitely not voting Conservative.  But some private sector ones are and today of union members in Canada, more work in public sector than private.  Public sector is 70% unionized, while private sector it is only 15%.

[adma]

However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Even Jill Andrews lost Forest Hill. 

And in the end, she didn't need Forest Hill--which is as "marginalizable" within its riding as "wealthy Westmount" is within *its* riding.  (Let's not forget: just because a riding has "Westmount" in its name doesn't mean it's *all* like the wealthy parts of Westmount.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I also think when people say working class much like how I mentioned with wealthy, it depends on definition.  I think NDP still does well with minimum wage workers and jobs like long term care workers, servers, bar tenders, cleaning staff, retail clerks as those tend to be more urban, more likely to be female, often younger and long term and cleaning staff often immigrants.

Where struggling is more in jobs like forestry, mining, manufacturing, construction which are heavily unionized but tend to be in smaller urban centres or sometimes rural.  Fairly white, very male dominated, and often over 50.  These jobs also if you look at pay not image are solid middle class as most of those pay wages above what average Canadian makes.  And its latter not former where you are seeing Conservatives gaining from NDP.  Most ridings mentioned of blue collar shifting away have lots in latter category whereas in former its more your urban core ridings which are Liberal/NDP and Tories a distant third.  

Likewise with unions as we saw in Ontario election seems a strong divide between public and private sector unions.  Public sector unions for obvious reasons are definitely not voting Conservative.  But some private sector ones are and today of union members in Canada, more work in public sector than private.  Public sector is 70% unionized, while private sector it is only 15%.

100%. "Working class" is not one unified voter bloc and is very loosely defined in the first place. I think there are certainly some working-class voters that the CPC could pry away from the NDP and Liberals - the global trend of these voters shifting to the right has been slower in Canada than in many other places, so there's room for growth. But Pierre Poilievre is not going to win over unskilled labour, nurses and PSWs, unionized public school teachers, etc.

[adma]

Yes, I was alluding to places like Sault Ste. Marie, Vancouver Island, Oshawa, the Niagara region, even working-class Winnipeg (tho there were lots of other factors working against the NDP in Manitoba that year) - all places where you might have generically expected the NDP to do very well while surging into second across the country but where their performance proved mediocre in the end.

Okay, blue-collar Anglos *outside* of QC.  But one other factor *there* was that while 2011 marked peak Layton, it *also* marked peak Harper--and all this talk about blue-collar Anglos shifting rightward isn't new; heck, it was evident as far back as the Reform surge in '93.  Indeed, the only place where the Orange Crush really seat-winningly succeeded outside of QC was inner Toronto--they also gained a couple of Surrey seats (which fell to the Libs the following election) and one on Vancouver Island following Keith Martin's retirement, but otherwise they treaded water in the ROC, or were undercut by the peak-Harper factor.  (Conversely, it was only in QC where the undercutting went the *other* way; that is, the NDP snatching seats from the Cons.  But the foundation for Con support in QC was "different".)