2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone been to a polling station today? Will be skewed by postal voting, but preliminary insights on turnout?

Another board's thread was full of claims about short lines - with the exception of those in downtown metros - but one would expect this on midday in a Monday so grain of salt yada yada.

[Oryxslayer]

Are the mail-in votes supposed to be more Conservative or Liberal?

https://twitter.com/AngusReid/status/1439380510904520705?s=20

As usually though, grain of salt. Mail votes are like 8-9% of the estimated 33% of 2019 turnout who voted through the equivalent of early in-person. High/Low turnout on its own doesn't benefit anyone - it's where the high/low turnout is occurring.

it is only mail votes are that are not counted tonight, other types of early votes actually can start getting counted a bit before polls close.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/paulisci/status/1440060935171817474?s=20

Whenever parties are like this they want to set expectations low.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC's stream is live on their site for those that want their coverage, even if you are abroad. Official primetime broadcast starts at 6:30est.

[Oryxslayer]

Expectations management?

Of course, under these easy goalposts O'Toole could claim a success if the seat models projections of a result similar to 2019 come to pass. Of course it won't stop his ouster if the Tories don't go up significantly, nor Trudeau's eventual similar fate if said numbers play out.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have now closed in the home of the Good Puppers.



Votes cast ahead of time in-person could begin to be counted 1 hour before polls closed. These MAY be the first to appear.

I'm watching St. John East, Bonavista, and Labrador.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories lead the first poll in Long Range MT.

First poll of Bonavista has 11 votes.

First Avalon poll small lib lead.

Second, and larger, coast of Bays poll makes it a tied race.

Big Lib lead in first Newfoundland poll.

Grains of salt go!



I think that's a good amount of overreaction to meaningless single precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC just said "economic anxiety.." in reference to rural N&L.... ugh

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have closed in the other Maritimes. Apparently Halifax is already reporting despite polls just closing.  ​

Tory's now ahead in Bonavista and Coast of Bays, Liberals in Long range Mts. All three though remain close.

[Oryxslayer]

I love the election night tradition of CBC seriously analyzing election results based on a few hundred votes in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Is it any different from us overanalyzing Kentucky and Indiana counties?

[Oryxslayer]

Whats the best map to follow along with? I'm watching the CBC stream right now.

I think every press site just gets their data from the national results agency, so I'm just using the cbc site to go with the cbc stream. DDHQ is also pulling the data if you want something more familiar.


NDP up in St. John East, so it probably won't be a free Liberal Flip even if it goes back to them.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1440100244893704193?s=20

Remember that Leger subsample of LPC+3? And this is before New Brunswick reports.

[Oryxslayer]

St. John's South is the first projected seat, for the Liberals of course.

[Oryxslayer]

PPC seems to range from 2% to 5%

And this wasn't going to be the most fertile ground for them. 

Was it though? New Brunswick has provincial PPC-aligned legislators, and some of their best polls had them crossing 10% here. Others upthread were noting the mainland Atlantic area is demographically similar to south Ontario.

[Oryxslayer]

Avalon is called for LPC.

[Oryxslayer]

Dartmouth Cole Harbor starts as a NDP lead! PPC on 12% there, so spot the partisan Torys.

[Oryxslayer]

Just as a note: If Conservatives take 8 or more in Atlantic Canada, I think they are in play. 10 or more and I think they are on track to win the night.

Con +7 in Atlantic was the my number for a 140-130ish split in favor of Cons, and Atlantic was the key to that result.

[Oryxslayer]

NDP now ahead in Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook as well, early precinct warning as usual, but it's a three way split presently.

[Oryxslayer]

The mail ballots are a big question mark but this isn’t looking like a Liberal majority.

Also on that point - the in-person votes which we know are more Tory than the topline. For those in the know: are these released as 1 large poll or are they added to the election day in each poll as everything is counted. Cause these votes are counted a bit in advance and I though they would all drop instantly.

[Oryxslayer]

How is it looking like compared to 2019(with similar amount of votes in these ridings)

Tory's way up, Libs stagnant. Tory's were actually ahead in NS when CBC showed a vote chart, with the Green "Tory on Bicycles" 2019 vote going to the Blues.

Currently its:

44.34% Lib

35.85% Con

14.72% NDP

In 2019 Cons were under 30% in the sum of all 4 provinces.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC shows Trudeau and his family in his home, the guy has a "WTF is going on" fake smile right now. Kids are having a good time though, 

[Oryxslayer]

Obviously, it's still early on, but is it possible that any LPC to CPC flips in the Atlantic provinces could be balanced by any CPC to LPC flips in the Prairies? Note, I'm quite the novice at following Canadian election results.

Not really, the NDP are the main beneficiaries of any Prairie movements for the PPC, with maybe 3 Liberals in striking distance total, 5 if you include Winnipeg. NDP is better in the west, LPC in the east.

[Oryxslayer]

With the partial results so far Atlantic Canada, what are the odds of a CPC minority govt?

Probably low.

My Atlantic number is Con+7 or more for a change in government. Right now its Con+5 with leads, not the all of the 5 I would have expected. Depends on the the peculiarities of New Brunswick if we will hit that benchmark.

[Oryxslayer]

why does CPC have 34 seats with leads ? I thought there was only 1 Quebec riding in the Atlantic time zone ?

Their just saying now. Some provinces have the in-person data backlogged into the system and they accidently released then retracted. They arn't telling where cause security of the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Does St. John's East have a high proportion of absentee votes? Wondering why they're barely half reported while every other Newfoundland riding is over 2/3rds in.

Urban seats have less voting sections, but they are more populated.

Yes. Extreme urban rural density divides mean you need more polls in rural areas just to reach everyone. Same reason why every one-horse county in Nebraska has 4 precincts for 1K people. Add in the poll closing cause of Coronavirus, and urbans may take longer.