2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[DistingFlyer]

Am finally able to connect with the world again, and damn was this a disappointment all-round.

Perhaps it was a good thing I couldn't see the results live, as I missed seeing my hopes raised early in the night by some good Tory pickups on the east coast (though no New Democrat gains there, including a near-miss in my own riding of Halifax).

I'd said in the earlier 2021 election thread, 'Party like it's 1965' - perhaps the most accurate prediction I've ever made!

[DistingFlyer]

Are any official/final tallies available anywhere yet? Can only find on Elections Canada's website a downloadable list of which ridings have finished counting, as opposed to the final results in those ridings.

EDIT: Turns out the old 2019 link still works (http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx); no completed counts yet, though.

[DistingFlyer]

Final update to the daily polling average graph:




Looks very similar to the parties' progress in 2019 (minus the good Tory lead at the one-third-to-half-way-mark):

[DistingFlyer]

Brome-Missisquoi flips to Liberals after counting their mail - Liberal candidate leads by 186 votes.

That means only one seat has flipped in Quebec. Crazy. What a boring election.

If all ridings stay as they presently are, that means only 23 changed hands this time - the fewest in at least a century, and possibly ever (as a percentage of the total).

[DistingFlyer]

Validated results for thirteen ridings now in:

Halifax West (Liberal hold)
Bellechasse - Les Etchemins - Levis (Conservative hold)
Louis-Saint-Laurent (Conservative hold)
Pierrefonds - Dollard (Liberal hold)
Barrie - Innisfill (Conservative hold)
Brantford - Brant (Conservative hold)
London - Fanshawe (NDP hold)
Oshawa (Conservative hold)
Saskatoon West (Conservative hold)
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal gain from Conservative)
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo (Conservative hold)
Port Moody - Coquitlam (NDP gain from Conservative)
Yukon (Liberal hold)

If we imagine a UK-style 'no figures until the constituency count is done' way of tallying results, then the result so far is as follows:

Conservative: 7 MPs (-2), 38.0% (+1%)
Liberal: 4 MPs (+1), 27.9% (-2%)
NDP: 2 MPs (+1), 22.2% (+2%)
BQ: 4.6% (-0%)
GP: 1.4% (-5%)
PPC: 4.9% (+3%)

[DistingFlyer]

In spite of the slight Liberal gains, the re-election rate of Ministers was actually not quite as good as last time, with 33 of 36 re-offering members of Cabinet winning (as opposed to 32 of 34 in 2019).

I put up a table showing Ministerial re-election rates from 1867 to 2019 after the last election; here's an updated version:

[DistingFlyer]

Still only those same thirteen validated counts completed, but with the preliminary tallies one can still do a decent regional breakdown:

Atlantic
Lib - 43.6% (+3%), 24 MPs (-2)
Cons - 31.5% (+3%), 8 MPs (+4)
NDP - 16.9% (+1%)
PPC - 4.4% (+3%)
GP - 3.2% (-9%)

Quebec
Lib - 33.6% (-1%), 34 MPs (-1)
BQ - 32.1% (-0%), 33 MPs (+1)
Cons - 18.6% (+3%), 10 MPs
NDP - 9.8% (-1%), 1 MP
PPC - 2.7% (+1%)
GP - 1.5% (-3%)

Montreal & Laval
Lib - 48.9% (+0%), 20 MPs
BQ - 18.4% (-1%), 1 MP
NDP - 15.7% (+1%), 1 MP
Cons - 11.5% (+1%)
PPC - 2.9%
GP - 5.6% (+4%)

Rest of Quebec
BQ - 36.9% (-0%), 32 MPs (+1)
Lib - 28.3% (-1%), 14 MPs (-1)
Cons - 21.1% (+3%), 10 MPs
NDP - 7.7% (-2%)
PPC - 2.6%
GP - 1.4% (-3%)

Ontario
Lib - 39.3% (-2%), 78 MPs (-1)
Cons - 34.9% (+2%), 37 MPs (+1)
NDP - 17.9% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
PPC - 5.5% (+4%)
GP - 2.2% (-4%), 1 MP (+1)

Metro Toronto
Lib - 52.1% (-2%), 25 MPs
Cons - 23.7% (+1%)
NDP - 18.4% (+2%)
PPC - 3.4%
GP - 2.1% (-3%)

Greater Toronto Area (incl. Metro)
Lib - 48.7% (-1%), 50 MPs (+1)
Cons - 31.2% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
NDP - 14.6% (+1%)
PPC - 3.6%
GP - 1.6% (-3%)

Rest of Ontario
Cons - 37.4% (+2%), 32 MPs (+2)
Lib - 32.7% (-3%), 28 MPs (-2)
NDP - 20.1% (+1%), 5 MPs (-1)
PPC - 6.8%
GP - 2.6% (-5%)

Eastern Ontario
Cons - 37.8% (+2%), 10 MPs (+2)
Lib - 37.5% (-2%), 9 MPs (-2)
NDP - 17.4% (+2%)
PPC - 4.5%
GP - 2.4% (-4%)

Western Ontario
Cons - 37.1% (+2%), 16 MPs
Lib - 30.5% (-3%), 13 MPs
NDP - 20.9% (+1%), 3 MPs (-1)
PPC - 7.9%
GP - 3.1% (-5%), 1 MP (+1)

Northern Ontario
Cons - 32.4% (+4%), 2 MPs
Lib - 31.2% (-4%), 6 MPs
NDP - 26.9% (-0%), 2 MPs
PPC - 7.4%
GP - 1.7% (-5%)

West
Cons - 44.5% (-7%), 64 MPs (-7)
NDP - 24.0% (+5%), 18 MPs (+3)
Lib - 21.2% (+1%), 21 MPs (+6)
PPC - 6.3% (+4%)
GP - 2.9% (-4%), 1 MP (-1)

Prairies
Cons - 52.9% (-11%), 51 MPs (-3)
NDP - 20.2% (+5%), 5 MPS (+1)
Lib - 17.0% (+1%), 6 MPs (+2)
PPC - 7.3% (+5%)
GP - 1.1% (-2%)

British Columbia
Cons - 33.2% (-1%), 13 MPs (-4)
NDP - 29.2% (+5%), 13 MPs (+2)
Lib - 27.0% (+1%), 15 MPs (+4)
GP - 5.3% (-7%), 1 MP (-1)
PPC - 4.9% (+3%)

Greater Vancouver
Lib - 37.0% (+3%), 15 MPs (+4)
Cons - 28.3% (-1%), 2 MPs (-4)
NDP - 28.2% (+4%), 5 MPs (+1)
PPC - 3.2%
GP - 2.8% (-6%)

Rest of BC
Cons - 37.7% (-0%), 11 MPs
NDP - 30.0% (+5%), 8 MPs (+1)
Lib - 17.9% (-1%)
GP - 7.5% (-8%), 1 MP (-1)
PPC - 6.4%

North
Lib - 35.4% (+0%), 2 MPs
NDP - 30.4% (+4%), 1 MP
Cons - 20.4% (-8%)
GP - 2.9% (-6%)

CANADA
Cons - 33.7% (-1%), 119 MPs (-2)
Lib - 32.6% (-1%), 159 MPs (+2)
NDP - 17.8% (+2), 25 MPs (+1)
BQ - 7.7% (+0%), 33 MPs (+1)
PPC - 5.0% (+3%)
GP - 2.3% (-4%), 2 MPs (-1)

Canada minus Quebec
Cons - 38.4% (-2%), 109 MPs (-2)
Lib - 32.3% (-0%), 125 MPs (+3)
NDP - 20.3% (+3%), 24 MPs (+1)
PPC - 5.7% (+4%)
GP - 2.6% (-5%), 2 MPs (-1)



A lot to take in here, but what particularly interested me was Northern Ontario. In the discussion two years ago, I mentioned that the Liberal lead there was smaller than in Ontario as a whole - perhaps the first-ever time that that had happened - and wondered if its voting patterns might be becoming more like the Prairies than the rest of Ontario. With another election down, it looks like that trend is continuing, as the Tories gained a larger percentage of the vote there (4%) than in any other region of the province (just as they did in 2019), and although they didn't gain any seats, outpolled the Liberals - which I don't think has ever happened while the Tories were simultaneously losing Ontario overall.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's an update of my safe/moderate/marginal chart from two years ago; a little surprised to see the overall balance not change that much, especially on the Tory side (56 ridings won by >25% in both 2019 & 2021).



(As a reminder, safe means a margin of >25%, moderate means 10-25%, and marginal means <10%.)

Safest Tory riding: Souris - Moose Mountain, won by 67.2% (first time since 1963 that their best result was in Saskatchewan, and the first time ever that the safest seat for any party was in Saskatchewan - it's also, however, the Tories' weakest 'best result' since the PC-vs-Alliance days)
Safest Liberal riding: Saint-Leonard - Saint-Michel, won by 58.8% (same seat as last time, with an increased majority)
Safest Bloc riding: Avignon - La Mitis - Matane - Matapedia, won by 38.3% (mirroring the PQ's best result in 2018)
Safest NDP riding: Vancouver East, won by 36.5% (same seat as last time, with a slightly increased margin)
Safest Green riding: Saanich - Gulf Islands, won by 14.9% (same seat as always, with a greatly reduced majority)

[DistingFlyer]

This may have already been answered, but this is the first time that a PM loses the popular vote for a second time in a row, but still wins the most seats, right?

That's correct, no party has won the most seats twice in a row while losing the PV in both elections.

If one factors in dual-member ridings (which existed until 1965), then the Tories lost the popular vote in 1962 as well as 1957 - not consecutive, like 2019 & 2021, but two out of three.

[DistingFlyer]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal) EDIT: validated count now puts this outside the margin
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of fifteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (144 to 141).

[DistingFlyer]

Obviously not every PPC vote would have gone Tory had there been no candidate, but here are the ridings where the PPC vote was greater than the margin by which the Tory candidate lost (if you like, the maximum number of seats that the PPC could have 'cost' the Tories):

Nova Scotia
Sydney - Victoria (Liberal)

Quebec
Trois-Rivieres (Bloc)

Ontario
Aurora - Oak Ridges - Richmond Hill (Liberal)
Cambridge (Liberal)
Kitchener South - Hespeler (Liberal)
Kitchener - Conestoga (Liberal)
London West (Liberal)
Niagara Centre (Liberal)
Nickel Belt (Liberal) (Conservatives third)
Nipissing - Timiskaming (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal)
St. Catharines (Liberal)
Thunder Bay - Rainy River (Liberal)
Timmins - James Bay (NDP)
Windsor - Tecumseh (Liberal)

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (Liberal)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)

British Columbia
Cloverdale - Langley City (Liberal)
Nanaimo - Ladysmith (NDP)
North Island - Powell River (NDP)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)
South Okanagan - West Kootenay (NDP)


That's a total of sixteen Liberal, six NDP & one Bloc riding, so even if every PPC voter had gone Tory instead, giving the Tories a popular vote lead of 39% to 33%, the Liberals would still have elected more MPs (143 to 142).

Seems a lot were your blue collar types that don't traditionally go Conservative.  But not a total surprise.  For all O'Toole's appeal to blue collar workers, I think PPC was able to do well there as many are upset and PPC largely fed off anger.  You saw same with Brexit as best results were often northern Labour seats and many of the biggest swings to Trump were likewise blue collar areas in Midwest.

Looks like it, particularly in Ontario - five of the ten northern ridings show up here, including some that haven't gone Tory since the Depression.

[DistingFlyer]

More validated counts coming through today, with the total now at thirty-five. Breakdown is as follows:


Lib - 17 MPs (+2), 31.4% (+0%)
Cons - 12 MPs (-2), 32.6% (+1%)
NDP - 3 MPs (+1), 17.7% (+1%)
BQ - 3 MPs, 10.4% (+0%)
PPC - 4.6% (+3%)
GP - 2.1% (-5%, -1 MP)

The validated results to show seats changing hands so far are Fredericton (GP to Lib), Cloverdale - Langley City (Cons to Lib) & Port Moody - Coquitlam (Cons to NDP).

[DistingFlyer]

Just over a third of ridings have validated counts now:

Lib - 53 MPs (+3), 32.1% (-0%)
Cons - 40 MPs (-3), 33.9% (+0%)
BQ - 13 MPs (+1), 8.7% (+0%)
NDP - 8 MPs (-1), 17.1% (+2%)
GP - 1 MP, 2.4% (-5%)
PPC - 4.9% (+3%)

Of 115 seats, a dozen have changed hands.

[DistingFlyer]

With only one result to be finalized and two recounts to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:


Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:


Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

[DistingFlyer]

Is that purple a PPC swing out west?

Yes; they didn't get into second place in many ridings, but there were a few.

[DistingFlyer]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

[DistingFlyer]

Not sure why I never made a swing map for 2015 since I did one for 2019 & 2021 (see above post), but decided to fix that oversight:



The largest swing was in Gatineau, at 37.8% NDP-Liberal.

The Tory swings out west were generally in NDP/Conservative ridings where the Liberals rose but stayed third.

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting to see 13 of 25 NDP ridings are in BC, an absolute majority.
Has that ever happened before?

Yes - twice, in 1962 (10 of 19) & 1963 (9 of 17) - and it's come close a few other times (3 of 7 in 1935, 4 of 8 in 1958, 9 of 21 in 1965, 19 of 43 in 1988).

[DistingFlyer]

Not sure how long it's been since a recount actually changed a result (1988 maybe, though there've probably been others since then); Trois-Rivieres is still to complete its recount, and Nunavut has yet to publish a validated result. Can't remember how long it took Nunavut to do that two years ago, though I do remember it was the last one then too.

Neither Davenport nor Brome - Missisquoi are listed yet on the Elections Canada recount page, though I imagine they'll pop up soon.

[DistingFlyer]

A validated count for Nunavut is up at last; still no update on completion of the Trois-Rivieres recount, or anything at all on Davenport or Brome.

[DistingFlyer]

Trois-Rivieres recount completed: Bloc still holds it, now by 83 votes.

[DistingFlyer]

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority

If they got a leader from that province, they might get such numbers - otherwise I don't see it happening.

[DistingFlyer]

The recount in Brome - Missisquoi has stopped, as the Bloc candidate has conceded the race and the Liberals hold the seat.

Davenport now the only recount left to finish; I imagine that will be completed later today.

[DistingFlyer]

Now the Davenport recount is listed as having been stopped as well - no news items yet about why, though.

Looks like the 2021 count is finally over. Will update the Google Drive datafile today.

[DistingFlyer]

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing

Have updated the pdf file as well as the xls (which includes turnout figures).


Have also updated the margin/vote share/swing maps to reflect the recounts: