2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone been to a polling station today? Will be skewed by postal voting, but preliminary insights on turnout?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Getting conflicting responses: I presume low turnout favours Tories?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Worth noting that the NDP made some significant gains in rural Prairie ridings, not just the PPC. In fact the PPC stuggled to get above 10% in many of these.

Battle River-Crowfoot

CON - 72%
NDP - 10%
PPC - 9%
MAV - 4%
LIB 4%

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone else notice the awful Conservative results in the predominantly Chinese suburbs of Vancouver (sorry; haven't trawled through 19 pages)? 23 point LPC swing in Richmond Centre. What might have been going on?

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

Yes, and excepting Beauce I think the adjacent Provencher is second. Which reflects the polls suggesting that the PPC would do better in MB/SK than Alberta. Any thoughts why?

[Geoffrey Howe]

New Brunswick:

CPC - 34.15%
LPC - 42.52%
NDP - 12.37%
PPC - 5.88%
GPC - 5.08%





Note the PPC didn't stand in two ridings and tended to be closer to 8% where they did.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Prince Edward Island:

CPC - 31.74%
LPC - 46.16%
NDP - 9.20%
PPC - 3.30%
GPC - 9.60%

[Geoffrey Howe]

Newfoundland (exc. Labrador)

CPC - 33.34%
LPC - 47.29%
NDP - 16.91%
PPC - 2.46%


PPC didn't stand in Coast of Bays.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Nova Scotia

CPC - 27.14%
LPC - 43.70%
NDP - 23.04%
PPC - 4.17%
GPC - 1.96%


Note CPC didn't stand in Dartmouth. This slightly inflated the PPC score. If we assume the CPC would have got similar to last time (~9,000) this pushes the CPC up to 29%.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

PPC:

Portage-Lisgar (MB) - 20%
Beauce (QC) - 18% (Maxime Bernier)
Provencher (MB) - 16%

They didn't do as well (~10%) in rural AB.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Atlantic provinces:

CPC - 30.94%
LPC - 44.09%
NDP - 17.38%
PPC - 4.38%
GPC - 3.21%


Maritime provinces:

CPC - 30.44%
LPC - 43.43%
NDP - 17.41%
PPC - 4.80%
GPC - 3.93%

[Geoffrey Howe]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

You are making two foolish assumptions: first, that socialists will start voting Liberal; secondly, that Liberals will not flock to the party of property. There are good reasons why the LPC and NDP remain separate.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Didn’t Labour get rid of its own common ownership clause under Blair in the 90s?

Yes, though his wasn't the first attempt: as far back as 1959 Hugh Gaitskell saw sense.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.

What do you mean by this? Why did Reform do so well there in the '90s?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes - I remember seeing a poll suggesting something like 25% of 1988 NDP voters voted Reform in 1993. Even more, of course, in the West.

[Geoffrey Howe]

LPC came last in Battlefords-Lloydminster (SK) behind NDP, Maverick and PPC. Decent result for Maverick with 7%.

There was a Green candidate there, so not last.

Ah, thank you. The website I'm looking at doesn't list the Green.

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

With all polls in, Portage-Lisgar is now 22% PPC.

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

With all polls in, Portage-Lisgar is now 22% PPC.

Rural Western Canada is as strongly right-wing as it's ever been. Battle River-Crowfoot looks to be the strongest seat for the CPC, but in terms of actual vote margin, it looks like it was Foothills on account of higher turnout. The former still looks to be the most right-wing riding in the country, with the CPC, PPC, and Maverick Party combining to nearly 85%. That's actually down from the over 88% the combined parties got in 2019.

Souris-Moose Mountain in SK was better for the Tories, though I'm not sure what the combined right wing vote was.

[Geoffrey Howe]

In fact a lot of Labour-Tory switchers in 2019 voted UKIP in 2015 so that makes me think right Tory leader and platform could win them over, but not automatic. 

Definitely not. There were hardly any Labour-->Conservative direct switchers anyway.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988

Do you mean protectionism by this?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not sure why I never made a swing map for 2015 since I did one for 2019 & 2021 (see above post), but decided to fix that oversight:



The largest swing was in Gatineau, at 37.8% NDP-Liberal.

The Tory swings out west were generally in NDP/Conservative ridings where the Liberals rose but stayed third.

Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/withfilesfrom/status/1446842137929306112?s=20
A look at the PPC strength by Election Day poll in southern Manitoba (according to the article, this is preliminary data from Elections Canada, does anyone know if preliminary poll data is available somewhere to download for all ridings?)

Anyways, the PPC did best in Mennonite communities, which are more anti-vax than other surrounding communities.

The swing in some of these polls must be extraordinary. The Tories had an excellent showing last time round in these parts, often with the Christian Heritage Party in second.

E.g. Portage-Lisgar poll 186

CPC - 172 (94%)
CHP - 6 (3%)
PPC - 3 (2%)
NDP - 1 (>1%)

Even in 2019 the PPC often outpolled the Liberals.
 

[Geoffrey Howe]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Miramichi-Grand Lake only real swing of the 4 Tory seats in New Brunswick.  The three Baptist belt ones much like Hastings-Lennox & Addington in Ontario and Kelowna-Lake Country in BC were one offs in 2015 which few expected to go Liberal so fact they've swung back to Tories is no surprise.

The PPC had a very good showing in those seats while the Tories kept up their numbers (cf. Prairie seats where the PPC rise closely matches the CPC fall). Not sure if you should call that shifting right, but it is notable.