2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3149738/conservative-vote-plunged-canadas-most-chinese-electorates-did?

"Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Did party pay price for tough stance on Beijing?"

I am surprised this actually made a difference.  Most of the BC Chinese are from HK and all things equal I would think they would vote the opposite of what the CCP tells them to vote for.  A bunch of them do have financial ties to HK but for the majority I cannot imagine the amount of money involved would make any sort of difference.

I mean, I am pro-CCP overall but I do not care what they say, I am voting Trump no matter what.  And we are talking about people that are more anti-CCP than pro-CCP.

Hmm, I'm not sure CCP policy explains it all. For one, Scheer was by no means the pro-CCP candidate in 2019. But I understand that feelings about the CCP are themselves polarizing within first-generation Chinese communities. Given that, I don't think this issue alone would create an almost universal LPC swing in areas with high Chinese-Canadian concentrations.

Just taking a guess here, could it have been outreach? Community outreach is hugely important in immigrant communities, especially ones with relatively low levels of English knowledge (CensusMapper shows that in both the GTA and MetroVan, the census tracts with the highest share of people who don't speak English or French correlate very strongly with tracts with high shares of Chinese-Canadians, more so than other immigrant groups). Given this, I assume outreach is even more important for this demographic, as language barrier can prevent one from meaningfully engaging with the national campaigns.

So if the Liberals did better at engaging with Chinese-Canadian communities, and/or the Conservatives did worse than before, that might explain it.

As Mung Beans and others have already pointed out, it had more to do with a pro-incumbent COVID-19 swing, than any meaningful demographic "replacement" of 97er Hong Kongers with (not necessarily Cantonese speaking) Mainland Chinese arrivals.

I wonder what if any swings there were in heavily Korean (Kim's Convenience) or Filipino areas; other posters have remarked that certain heavily South Asian areas either had no swing (Sri Lankan/Tamil) or swung somewhat Tory (Sikh/Punjabi).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3149738/conservative-vote-plunged-canadas-most-chinese-electorates-did?

"Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Did party pay price for tough stance on Beijing?"

I am surprised this actually made a difference.  Most of the BC Chinese are from HK and all things equal I would think they would vote the opposite of what the CCP tells them to vote for.  A bunch of them do have financial ties to HK but for the majority I cannot imagine the amount of money involved would make any sort of difference.

I mean, I am pro-CCP overall but I do not care what they say, I am voting Trump no matter what.  And we are talking about people that are more anti-CCP than pro-CCP.

Hmm, I'm not sure CCP policy explains it all. For one, Scheer was by no means the pro-CCP candidate in 2019. But I understand that feelings about the CCP are themselves polarizing within first-generation Chinese communities. Given that, I don't think this issue alone would create an almost universal LPC swing in areas with high Chinese-Canadian concentrations.

Just taking a guess here, could it have been outreach? Community outreach is hugely important in immigrant communities, especially ones with relatively low levels of English knowledge (CensusMapper shows that in both the GTA and MetroVan, the census tracts with the highest share of people who don't speak English or French correlate very strongly with tracts with high shares of Chinese-Canadians, more so than other immigrant groups). Given this, I assume outreach is even more important for this demographic, as language barrier can prevent one from meaningfully engaging with the national campaigns.

So if the Liberals did better at engaging with Chinese-Canadian communities, and/or the Conservatives did worse than before, that might explain it.

As Mung Beans and others have already pointed out, it had more to do with a pro-incumbent COVID-19 swing, than any meaningful demographic "replacement" of 97er Hong Kongers with (not necessarily Cantonese speaking) Mainland Chinese arrivals.

I wonder what if any swings there were in heavily Korean (Kim's Convenience) or Filipino areas; other posters have remarked that certain heavily South Asian areas either had no swing (Sri Lankan/Tamil) or swung somewhat Tory (Sikh/Punjabi).

No real concentration of Koreans and Filipinos the same way you have with South Asians and Chinese, at least in the GTA, so it's hard to say without poll-by-poll data. The main Korean concentration in the GTA is Willowdale, and that swung Liberal, but there's also a large Chinese population there. For Filipinos the big ones seem to be York Centre, Eg-Law, Scarborough Centre and Southwest - but again, all these ridings are pretty heterogenous and have other ethnic concentrations - Jewish and Italian in YC/EL, and South Asian in the Scarborough ones. We'll have to wait for the poll-by-polls to definitively say how they swung, at least in the context of Toronto/GTA.

[Benjamin Frank]

Economist Mike Moffatt has been breaking down the election results by urban/rural and everything in between on Twitter.  

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442972922281218064
There are other similar tweets if you check his twitter feed. For disclosure:  I believe Moffatt has done consulting work for the federal Liberal government, but this seems to be strictly empirical.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3149738/conservative-vote-plunged-canadas-most-chinese-electorates-did?

"Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Did party pay price for tough stance on Beijing?"

I am surprised this actually made a difference.  Most of the BC Chinese are from HK and all things equal I would think they would vote the opposite of what the CCP tells them to vote for.  A bunch of them do have financial ties to HK but for the majority I cannot imagine the amount of money involved would make any sort of difference.

I mean, I am pro-CCP overall but I do not care what they say, I am voting Trump no matter what.  And we are talking about people that are more anti-CCP than pro-CCP.

Hmm, I'm not sure CCP policy explains it all. For one, Scheer was by no means the pro-CCP candidate in 2019. But I understand that feelings about the CCP are themselves polarizing within first-generation Chinese communities. Given that, I don't think this issue alone would create an almost universal LPC swing in areas with high Chinese-Canadian concentrations.

Just taking a guess here, could it have been outreach? Community outreach is hugely important in immigrant communities, especially ones with relatively low levels of English knowledge (CensusMapper shows that in both the GTA and MetroVan, the census tracts with the highest share of people who don't speak English or French correlate very strongly with tracts with high shares of Chinese-Canadians, more so than other immigrant groups). Given this, I assume outreach is even more important for this demographic, as language barrier can prevent one from meaningfully engaging with the national campaigns.

So if the Liberals did better at engaging with Chinese-Canadian communities, and/or the Conservatives did worse than before, that might explain it.

As Mung Beans and others have already pointed out, it had more to do with a pro-incumbent COVID-19 swing, than any meaningful demographic "replacement" of 97er Hong Kongers with (not necessarily Cantonese speaking) Mainland Chinese arrivals.

I wonder what if any swings there were in heavily Korean (Kim's Convenience) or Filipino areas; other posters have remarked that certain heavily South Asian areas either had no swing (Sri Lankan/Tamil) or swung somewhat Tory (Sikh/Punjabi).

Conservatives and their right wing media allies are trying to blame the Chinese Communist Party. I think the evidence of this is very weak.  Contrary to the first post, Conservative support dropped in many ridings with large South Asian populations, especially in the west:  Calgary-Skyview, Vancouver South and, to some degree, Surrey.  The Steveston-Richmond East riding also has a fair sized South Asian population (though the Chinese population is 4 times larger) as is evident in that the new M.P is Parm Bains.

The explanation most given for this is that those on the conservative side in both the South Asian and East Asian communities due to their religious beliefs punished the Conservatives for kowtowing to Quebec on Bill 21, the religious symbols law.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, the gender gap among Members of the House of Commons between the two main parties appears to be closing (as might also be the case in the United States.)

Of the 25 new Liberal M.Ps, 14 are men and 11 are women.
of the 17 new Conservative M.Ps, 10 are men and 7 are women.

[Benjamin Frank]

10 of the 52 new M.Ps are lawyers (though not all were practicing lawyers prior to getting elected) and 3 are economists, though several others have degrees in economics.  Maybe Interestingly, two of the three economists are new Bloc M.Ps.

[Benjamin Frank]

The new Green M.P Mike Morrice has an interesting background as an environmental consultant to businesses.  How long before the Liberals try to entice him to join them?

[mileslunn]

For visible minority votes, it does seem Tories went backwards although Chinese was strongest swing.  They were already struggling with South Asians and looks like outside Alberta, 2015 was big drop there and has levelled off since but not rebounded.  By contrast Chinese community was likely only visible minority group Scheer won and also likely being in the 40s, there was more room for support to fall there than South Asians where support was down in 20s.  

Our polls don't give them, but would be interested in how big racial divide was in voting.  While not certain, I am guessing, Tories got around 25% amongst visible minorities, while amongst whites, probably 37-38%.  In Ontario I would venture to guess Tories got close to 40% maybe slightly more of white voters while Liberals probably in low 30s, but just a guess.  Of white males, I suspect CPC + PPC was probably just north of 50% in Ontario.  In some ways starting to see divide similar to US although not quite as bad whereas when Harper won his majority and even 2015, the racial divide much smaller and most of the difference could be chalked up to rural vs. urban split.  

New Brunswick also seems to have a bigger Anglophone vs. Francophone divide.  Excluding Halifax and St. John's which were worst showings for Tories in Atlantic Canada, their best rural showings where rural Anglophone ridings in New Brunswick, but worst showings in rural areas outside Quebec where rural Francophone ridings in New Brunswick.

Other divide is age and gender and my understanding is Tories had a pretty solid lead amongst males, Liberals ahead amongst females and Tories sub 30, but NDP also higher here.  By age I believe, seniors were best demographic for both Tories and Liberals while NDP skewed heavily young.  BQ also skewed older.  PPC I believe was strongest amongst males under 40 without a post secondary degree.

[Benjamin Frank]

Final post for me right now,

The NDP is being squeezed in that their seats are concentrated in British Columbia (13/25.) In Ontario NDP support has gone from 16.0% in 2015 to 16.8 to 17.9 as their seat count has declined from 8 in 2015 to 6 to 5. The problem for the NDP in Ontario is that everywhere they have concentrated support, the Liberals do as well.  

The NDP seems to be safer in Winnipeg where their seats are more 'working class' like Vancouver East, but even in British Columbia, leader Jagmeet Singh won only 40-30% over his Liberal opponent and Vancouver-Kingsway (Don Davies) and Burnaby-New Westminster (Peter Julian) are likely only safe ridings due to the popularity of their M.Ps.

To be sure though, it was the N.D.P that won Port Moody-Coquitlam over the Conservatives and not the Liberals.

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

Were for some reason Jagmeet Sigh to step down, these are the M.Ps based on their popularity in their ridings, that I could see running for leader:

1.Laurel Collins, Victoria (not as popular as the others, but with 13/25 NDP ridings in B.C, I think one of them would have to run.)
2.Heather McPherson, Edmonton-Strathcona
3.Leah Gazan, Winnipeg Centre
4.Daniel Blaikie, Elmwood-Transcona
5.Matthew Green, Hamilton Centre
6.Alexandre Boulerice, Rosemont-La Petite Petrie

For what it's worth, since this is all academic anyway, I could see some members of legislative assemblies run as well, like maybe David Eby in Vancouver, Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver,  Sara Singh in Brampton, and Claudia Chender in Halifax.  I'm sure some Ontario  New Democrats would like Andrea Horwath to run as well, mostly to get rid of her.

[mileslunn]

Economist Mike Moffatt has been breaking down the election results by urban/rural and everything in between on Twitter. 

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442972922281218064

There are other similar tweets if you check his twitter feed. For disclosure:  I believe Moffatt has done consulting work for the federal Liberals, but this seems to be strictly empirical.

Dense urban almost all in Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver so not surprising strong left wing tilt.

Urban was more smaller cities, but Calgary being included probably skewed Tories upward a bit as despite drop there, it was still by far their best urban showing, even more so than Regina and Saskatoon.  

Suburbs look awful for Tories, but remember that includes Quebec where Tory support close to 10% so in Ontario and BC probably Liberals ahead but Tories in 35-37% range, not 31%.

Exurban actually includes what many of us think of as being rural ridings in Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec.  35% seems low for Tories, but my guess is Quebec dragging it down where Tories did horrible here, but in Ontario I am guessing Tory support north of 40%.  

Rural may seem low for Tories, but includes Atlantic Canada where yes Tories saw biggest gains in support, but was still quite competitive.  Also includes Quebec where outside Quebec City region, most went for BQ.  Likewise in BC was probably close NDP/CPC race as most in this category were Vancouver Island and Okanagan Valley and former going NDP latter CPC.

Remote when I think of ridings that are truly remote I would have thought went NDP or Liberals.  But most Prairie ridings due to low population density as well as BC Interior were counted as remote thus why Tories strongest here despite poor showing in northern ridings.

I've found on population density, over 3,000 people per sq. km (large urban cores) are most left wing.  

1,000 to 3,000 (mid sized city cores and close by suburbs of big three), NDP tends to struggle here while Liberals dominate, but Tories in good election can win here but normally outside Alberta don't.

500 - 1,000 (smaller cities and typical suburban ridings) is generally your bellwether for who wins or not.

100 - 500 (usually have a small city with some rural or on urban/rural fringe) lean Tory in Ontario and West while BQ in Quebec but somewhat competitive.

10 - 100 (usually tends to be predominately farmland with lots of small towns close by) is Tory but usually only around 50% mark, not blowouts while BQ or Tory in Quebec depending on proximity to Quebec City and Liberal/Tory in Atlantic Canada.

1-10 (usually either farmland with gigantic farms and few settlements like Prairies or mostly mountainous with larger towns in BC) is generally where you see right wing blowouts.

By contrast under 1 person per square km (almost always forest or tundra and mining or forestry not agriculture tend to dominate here) tend to go mostly NDP or Liberal but that doesn't have its own category.  

[mileslunn]

Final post for me right now,

The NDP is being squeezed in that their seats are concentrated in British Columbia (13/25.) In Ontario NDP support has gone from 16.0% in 2015 to 16.8 to 17.9 as their seat count has declined from 8 in 2015 to 6 to 5. The problem for the NDP in Ontario is that everywhere they have concentrated support, the Liberals do as well.  

The NDP seems to be safer in Winnipeg where their seats are more 'working class' like Vancouver East, but even in British Columbia, leader Jagmeet Singh won only 40-30% over his Liberal opponent and Vancouver-Kingsway (Don Davies) and Burnaby-New Westminster (Peter Julian) are likely only safe ridings due to the popularity of their M.Ps.

To be sure though, it was the N.D.P that won Port Moody-Coquitlam over the Conservatives and not the Liberals.

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands trend Liberal.)

Were for some reason Jagmeet Sigh to step down, these are the M.Ps based on their popularity in their ridings, that I could see running for leader:

1.Laurel Collins, Victoria (not as popular as the others, but with 13/25 NDP ridings in B.C, I think one of them would have to run.)
2.Heather McPherson, Edmonton-Strathcona
3.Leah Gazan, Winnipeg Centre
4.Daniel Blaikie, Elmwood-Transcona
5.Matthew Green, Hamilton Centre
6.Alexandre Boulerice, Rosemont-La Petite Petrie

For what it's worth, since this is all academic anyway, I could see some members of legislative assemblies run as well, like maybe David Eby in Vancouver, Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver,  Sara Singh in Brampton, and Claudia Chender in Halifax.  I'm sure some Ontario  New Democrats would like Andrea Horwath to run as well, mostly to get rid of her.

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here.  Other is your downtown urban cores which Singh is a good fit for, but in those areas I find most are promiscuous progressives who tend to swing en masse behind whichever party is most likely to keep Tories out of office.  With Liberals moving to more left woke as opposed to your traditional centrist type, that squeezes NDP out there. 

While won few seats, NDP actually had best showing in votes in Alberta since 1988 which bodes quite well for Notley in next provincial election. 

[2952-0-0]

It's very corrosive for Conservatives to blame their poor performance among Chinese-Canadians on interference on a hostile foreign power

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

Yeah, I agree.  They were "masking before masking was cool", so to speak, so it all comes second nature to them--and of course, the SARS crisis had a particular immediacy when it came to Toronto's Chinese.  So to them, CPC soft-pedalling would seem tin-eared, and PPC militancy outright unseemly.  (And within a society and culture marked by resolute discipline, Bernierite freedom-mongering is totally off-orbit--though one can understand how they might have found Stephen Harper's stolidity admirable.)

This community took the virus very seriously, well before it was even named COVID-19. Anecdotally, the malls of Richmond, which are normally bustling with shoppers and diners, became virtually dead as early as February 2020 - a whole month before the rest of the western world took notice. The idea that COVID-19 could be handwaved away as "no big deal" is simply terrifying, especially since the governments in the Chinese-speaking world took a zero tolerance policy towards the virus. It was no surprise that the predominately Chinese-Canadian municipalities had a much lower case rate and a much higher vaccination rate. Hence, the CPC's pandering to anti-vaxxers, and calling Trudeau's proposal for vaccine mandates as "divisive", struck this politically heterogenous group as dangerous.

[adma]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

[adma]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

[lilTommy]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.
It is a somewhat worrying trend for the NDP in Northern Ontario:
Sudbury - Flat, 28% in 2019 vs 29% in 2021
Nickel Belt - 32% to 27%
Saulte Ste.Marie - 22% to 20%
Thunder Bay-Rainy River - Flat, 28% both elections
Timmins-James Bay - 39% to 35%

Improved vote:
Thunder Bay-Superior North - 21% to 27% (second place vs third)
Kenora - 28% to 30% (second place vs third)

It was mentioned already but in these areas (including windsor/hamilton, union urban areas) a left-wing populist pocket-book approach is needed, which is different then what might play in urban cores, where the NDP need to retain and attract promiscuous progressives. Singh can't sacrifice one for the other, the loss of Hamilton-Mountain and the inability to gain back Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex should slap the leadership into realizing this...I hope. 

[StateBoiler]

Economist Mike Moffatt has been breaking down the election results by urban/rural and everything in between on Twitter. 

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442972922281218064

There are other similar tweets if you check his twitter feed. For disclosure:  I believe Moffatt has done consulting work for the federal Liberals, but this seems to be strictly empirical.

Dense urban almost all in Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver so not surprising strong left wing tilt.

Urban was more smaller cities, but Calgary being included probably skewed Tories upward a bit as despite drop there, it was still by far their best urban showing, even more so than Regina and Saskatoon.  

Suburbs look awful for Tories, but remember that includes Quebec where Tory support close to 10% so in Ontario and BC probably Liberals ahead but Tories in 35-37% range, not 31%.

Exurban actually includes what many of us think of as being rural ridings in Southern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec.  35% seems low for Tories, but my guess is Quebec dragging it down where Tories did horrible here, but in Ontario I am guessing Tory support north of 40%.  

Rural may seem low for Tories, but includes Atlantic Canada where yes Tories saw biggest gains in support, but was still quite competitive.  Also includes Quebec where outside Quebec City region, most went for BQ.  Likewise in BC was probably close NDP/CPC race as most in this category were Vancouver Island and Okanagan Valley and former going NDP latter CPC.

Probably make sense to take his analysis and segregate Quebec results out in order to compare apples to apples.

[adma]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

[lilTommy]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

[beesley]

I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

This also fed into a lot of the missed seat projections - far from the Liberals solely being resilient in Ontario, it was assumed in 2019 and this year that seats like Richmond Hill, Newmarket-Aurora and Whitby had to go back to the CPC because they were close in 2015 - when there were other dynamics at play. Of course the CPC did return to that somewhat it seems this year but not in the same numbers.

Another thing was that we weren't wrong to question why the Liberals were spending their time in seats like London West, Halifax and Mississauga-Lakeshore - they needed to win them after all and they were too close to comfort. As a result conclusions were made that every seat before London West was also competitive. We just assumed that the Liberals weren't spending time in Richmond Hill because it was gone for them - rather, their internal polling had them stronger. So we were right to pay attention, but were wrong to make sweeping interpretations.

[mileslunn]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

I think swing provincially is a number of factors.

1.  Anyone under 40 wouldn't remember the 90s so you have a whole new generation where the NDP were disaster in 90s won't work with and with those in 30s unlike a decade ago now getting married and having children, many leaving city proper for suburbs thus pulling them left.

2.  It appears in 2017, a lot of former BC Liberal voters who had reach fatigued with party but still fearful of NDP voted for the Green Party not NDP.

3.  After Horgan turned out to be not that bad and not like NDP of 90s, many moved over to NDP in 2020.

For federal shift, I think climate change and housing crisis perhaps reason for leftward shift while things like taxes and balanced budgets were huge issues a decade ago, but much less now.  In addition could be a West coast phenomenon as Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles suburbs have all seen similar shifts.  Bush won many of LA ones in 2004, ran even with Kerry in Portland while lost most Seattle but still got in the 40s.  Did worse in San Francisco but still got around 30%.  By contrast Trump got trashed badly in all of them.  Even Orange County where Bush got 60%, Trump lost both times.  While suburbs throughout US swung left, the biggest swings from Bush and even Romney were on West Coast.  Yes US is a different country, but fact seeing similar trend is interesting. 

[mileslunn]

It was mentioned already but in these areas (including windsor/hamilton, union urban areas) a left-wing populist pocket-book approach is needed, which is different then what might play in urban cores, where the NDP need to retain and attract promiscuous progressives. Singh can't sacrifice one for the other, the loss of Hamilton-Mountain and the inability to gain back Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex should slap the leadership into realizing this...I hope. 

Places like Essex and Oshawa are probably gone for NDP except in really good elections and ditto Niagara Centre.  Those three have a lot in common with Red wall seats in UK that voted for Brexit and went Labour up until 2019, but Boris Johnson won.  Also some similarities to Obama-Trump areas like Mahoning Valley in Ohio and Northeastern Pennsylvania which saw similar swings.  In case of Niagara Centre I think its not a matter of if, but a matter of when Tories win that one.  I've suggested in a decade it will be more favourable to Tories than Burlington or Kanata-Carleton which are more white collar upper middle class.  O'Toole might win those two next time, but only because he is more centrist (a Scheer led party could never win them) and Trudeau more left wing and may raise taxes (A more centrist Liberal party would have those locked up)

[mileslunn]

One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

[beesley]

One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

Would it not be because of the unique identity - that area is 90% Francophone I believe and the same applies across the rest of Francophone New Brunswick. Whereas that part of Maine is just a more Conservative part of rural New England, and the equivalent conservative (small c) part of New Brunswick is the area covered by Tobique Mactaquac.

[adma]

This also fed into a lot of the missed seat projections - far from the Liberals solely being resilient in Ontario, it was assumed in 2019 and this year that seats like Richmond Hill, Newmarket-Aurora and Whitby had to go back to the CPC because they were close in 2015 - when there were other dynamics at play. Of course the CPC did return to that somewhat it seems this year but not in the same numbers.

Though Whitby wasn't "close" in quite the same way in '19.  What probably hardwired the "had to go back" party line was its being within O'Toole's political orbit, together with Jim Flaherty's tenure making Whitby look more "naturally" Conservative than it is...