2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Well I'm not sure she really wants to go the Warren route. Warren never really pulled off her "I'm just a gal from the heartland" act in the sense that her base was cripplingly confined to wonky urban liberals.

Freeland isn't going to be some prairie populist darling who suddenly starts winning seats in Alberta. Despite her being from the province, she's spent much of her adult life in Europe, and when she came back to Canada, Toronto. Albertans might not hate her as much as Trudeau, but she's inextricably tied to his brand. I also don't think she can counter her Laurentian Elite image by emphasizing her prairie upbringing because what we've seen of her, at least publicly, is only slightly less Laurentian than Justin Trudeau, a man who couldn't be more of a Laurentian Elite if he put on a top hat and started going by "J.P. Trudeau".

That said, I do think Freeland has more personal appeal broadly than Trudeau because she's seen as being more competent. I don't think people who hate the "Liberal elite" are really in play for the LPC, so it's probably not worth worrying about, but people who find Trudeau vapid might find more appeal in her. Her struggle compared to Trudeau might be Quebec because of her relatively weak French and lack of connection to the province.

[KaiserDave]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

I have no idea what any of this means but I'm just hoping the NDP isn't listening to you.

[Logical]

With Brome-Missisquoi flipping back to the Liberals, the riding of Québec will continue its streak of voting for the party with most seats in Quebec since it was first contested in 1968 under a different name.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.

[adma]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

I have no idea what any of this means but I'm just hoping the NDP isn't listening to you.

Actually, one problem with 2011 is that it played out *too* much like Uncle Jack taking the kids on a quick surprise first-time trip to Mount Splashmore, where *he* might have known the highways and byways and sights and sounds going there, but the *kids* didn't because they were too busy with their phones and games and horseplay in the back seat.  And then Uncle Jack died, and the kids have no clue *how* to go there again (much less that there'd be anything else on the way), all they know is that Mount Splashmore was giddy and fun and they wanna go there again.

2011 was a rush.  However, the potential quicksand that was all built upon should have been evident from the start.  Jack might have been able to contain that quicksand, or at least a good deal of it, much like Rachel Notley in 2019 (which she lost, but not to the degree that she became terminally out of the picture a la Socred post-1971).  Mulcair wasn't.  Once the NDP's knocked off a giddy perch back to a "natural condition" distant third after a single term in government (or, in this case, after "owning" Official Opposition), it becomes *very* hard to claw back to contention, and they might--like Ontario after Bob Rae, or Nova Scotia after Darrell Dexter--have to settle for muddling around that distant-third status for a spell until "opportunity knocks".  So at that point, they have to accept the fact that they're a third party w/all the roadblocks in place courtesy of the "top two", and they have to manage that, diligently, incrementally, in a way that both accepts that condition yet "sees beyond".  Sort of like, Uncle Jack isn't around anymore to take you to Mount Splashmore; so it's up to you to "trace his path" and do so by studying maps and discerning routings, figuring out *where* Mount Splashmore is, its context and the "contexts" along the way.  *Not* by dumbly programming a destination into a GPS.  And don't just expect Uncle Jagmeet to be like Uncle Jack; remember, once you know your roads, you're guiding *him* just as much as he's taking *you*.  Might be some initial disappointment due to lack of means or those nasty Liberals and Conservatives ahead of you in line at Mount Splashmore--but at least it was a fulfilling trip *to* there...

[adma]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Well I'm not sure she really wants to go the Warren route. Warren never really pulled off her "I'm just a gal from the heartland" act in the sense that her base was cripplingly confined to wonky urban liberals.

Freeland isn't going to be some prairie populist darling who suddenly starts winning seats in Alberta. Despite her being from the province, she's spent much of her adult life in Europe, and when she came back to Canada, Toronto. Albertans might not hate her as much as Trudeau, but she's inextricably tied to his brand. I also don't think she can counter her Laurentian Elite image by emphasizing her prairie upbringing because what we've seen of her, at least publicly, is only slightly less Laurentian than Justin Trudeau, a man who couldn't be more of a Laurentian Elite if he put on a top hat and started going by "J.P. Trudeau".

That said, I do think Freeland has more personal appeal broadly than Trudeau because she's seen as being more competent. I don't think people who hate the "Liberal elite" are really in play for the LPC, so it's probably not worth worrying about, but people who find Trudeau vapid might find more appeal in her. Her struggle compared to Trudeau might be Quebec because of her relatively weak French and lack of connection to the province.

Frankly, I get negligible "Alberta girl" vibe from her--at least, as something that the Libs would massively exploit.  Or it could just as well be in conjunction with her NDP family background (and maybe the "more competent" could be used to portray her as Rachel Notley-esque--and providentially enough, Halyna Freeland was the federal NDP candidate in Rachel's Strathcona in '88).

And when it comes to "Laurentian Elite-ness" vs Justin; well, I'd say Chrystia comes across as even *more* so, because while Justin is definitely Laurentian, he *doesn't* project as terribly "Elite" except as a silver-spoon beneficiary of the same.  True Laurentian Elite-ness is heavyweight; Justin's a lightweight...

[adma]

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

Establishmentarian Kingsway is in Lakeshore no?  Etobicoke Centre has some wealth too but it's newer and more "Catholic ethnic."  Doug Ford's home Census Tract is 23% Italian ancestry.

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

[StateBoiler]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Well I'm not sure she really wants to go the Warren route. Warren never really pulled off her "I'm just a gal from the heartland" act in the sense that her base was cripplingly confined to wonky urban liberals.

Freeland isn't going to be some prairie populist darling who suddenly starts winning seats in Alberta. Despite her being from the province, she's spent much of her adult life in Europe, and when she came back to Canada, Toronto. Albertans might not hate her as much as Trudeau, but she's inextricably tied to his brand. I also don't think she can counter her Laurentian Elite image by emphasizing her prairie upbringing because what we've seen of her, at least publicly, is only slightly less Laurentian than Justin Trudeau, a man who couldn't be more of a Laurentian Elite if he put on a top hat and started going by "J.P. Trudeau".

That said, I do think Freeland has more personal appeal broadly than Trudeau because she's seen as being more competent. I don't think people who hate the "Liberal elite" are really in play for the LPC, so it's probably not worth worrying about, but people who find Trudeau vapid might find more appeal in her. Her struggle compared to Trudeau might be Quebec because of her relatively weak French and lack of connection to the province.

Frankly, I get negligible "Alberta girl" vibe from her--at least, as something that the Libs would massively exploit.  Or it could just as well be in conjunction with her NDP family background (and maybe the "more competent" could be used to portray her as Rachel Notley-esque--and providentially enough, Halyna Freeland was the federal NDP candidate in Rachel's Strathcona in '88).

And when it comes to "Laurentian Elite-ness" vs Justin; well, I'd say Chrystia comes across as even *more* so, because while Justin is definitely Laurentian, he *doesn't* project as terribly "Elite" except as a silver-spoon beneficiary of the same.  True Laurentian Elite-ness is heavyweight; Justin's a lightweight...

There's frankly nothing more elite than claiming roots to something that does not exist and everyone knows is a bald-faced lie.

[jaichind]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

[lilTommy]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.

I think when we analyze the NDPs results so far on the riding level, the NDP did ok, yes not as good as expected but not as bad as 2019. The NDP gained 3 seats, sadly thought losing 2 but those 2 losses were situational I think.

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

St. John's East - The other open seat with no incumbent, and that incumbent being Jack Harris a legend in NFLD, this was always going to be tough. I think the NDP nominated a good candidate, a relatively strong one, but she was no Jack Harris. I was actually hopping someone like Sheilagh O'Leary (SJs deputy mayor and former provincial ndp candidate) would run who at least has a bigger shadow to cast, but maybe next time. Anyway, the provincial Liberals were gunning for this seat and their ground game paid off. I think it was going to be a hard fight no matter what, where Hamilton Mountain was a failure of the local NDP from the start, in SJE it was just too high of a mountain to climb this time sadly,

BUT, the gains:

Edmonton Greisbach - EVERY 'Dipper should be so excited about this gain, and we should look to this seat as a playbook. 1) it's been a target since 2008, and the party grew from 25% in 2019 (below the past few elections of mid-late 30%) to 40%. 2) a big thanks has to go to Janis Irwin and Rachel Notley and the ANDP, they were all over this seat as was Singh and the entire federal party. This goes to show the party should really stick to targeted regional campaigns. 3) the Kenney effect, this was always a week area for conservatives but with the success of the ANDP over the last decade and the failures of the UCP during the pandemic, a big chunk of the vote was CPC-NDP punishing kenney, but the NDP were able to harness it. This may be a one-off but the party should really look at the success in Edmonton Manning and Edmonton Centre, where the party gained 13% and 9% (Edmonton Centre could have been won had Boissonnault not run).

Port Moody-Coquitlam - An almost from 2019, same candidate again but a much more focused campaign. The NDP here were helped by no green (gained 7% over 2019, and the Greens won... 7% in 2019). The NDP needs to focus on retaining this Green vote to see more success in BC, the collapse of the Greens benefitted the NDP but also the LPC.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Not called yet but here's hoping, the NDP wanted this so bad. It was a sting to have lost it in the first place when the Greens were on an up-ward trend pre-2015. It's still close so this riding shows how important local ground game is. The NDP is marginally up 6%, but the CPC is also up 3%, the Greens down 9%... so you can see here, the Green vote split unlike in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

The NDP caucus is more diverse and female now as well; -2 older white men, +2 women and +1 Indigenous two-spirit MP man (the first in Canada).  

[DC Al Fine]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.

I think when we analyze the NDPs results so far on the riding level, the NDP did ok, yes not as good as expected but not as bad as 2019. The NDP gained 3 seats, sadly thought losing 2 but those 2 losses were situational I think.

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

St. John's East - The other open seat with no incumbent, and that incumbent being Jack Harris a legend in NFLD, this was always going to be tough. I think the NDP nominated a good candidate, a relatively strong one, but she was no Jack Harris. I was actually hopping someone like Sheilagh O'Leary (SJs deputy mayor and former provincial ndp candidate) would run who at least has a bigger shadow to cast, but maybe next time. Anyway, the provincial Liberals were gunning for this seat and their ground game paid off. I think it was going to be a hard fight no matter what, where Hamilton Mountain was a failure of the local NDP from the start, in SJE it was just too high of a mountain to climb this time sadly,

BUT, the gains:

Edmonton Greisbach - EVERY 'Dipper should be so excited about this gain, and we should look to this seat as a playbook. 1) it's been a target since 2008, and the party grew from 25% in 2019 (below the past few elections of mid-late 30%) to 40%. 2) a big thanks has to go to Janis Irwin and Rachel Notley and the ANDP, they were all over this seat as was Singh and the entire federal party. This goes to show the party should really stick to targeted regional campaigns. 3) the Kenney effect, this was always a week area for conservatives but with the success of the ANDP over the last decade and the failures of the UCP during the pandemic, a big chunk of the vote was CPC-NDP punishing kenney, but the NDP were able to harness it. This may be a one-off but the party should really look at the success in Edmonton Manning and Edmonton Centre, where the party gained 13% and 9% (Edmonton Centre could have been won had Boissonnault not run).

Port Moody-Coquitlam - An almost from 2019, same candidate again but a much more focused campaign. The NDP here were helped by no green (gained 7% over 2019, and the Greens won... 7% in 2019). The NDP needs to focus on retaining this Green vote to see more success in BC, the collapse of the Greens benefitted the NDP but also the LPC.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Not called yet but here's hoping, the NDP wanted this so bad. It was a sting to have lost it in the first place when the Greens were on an up-ward trend pre-2015. It's still close so this riding shows how important local ground game is. The NDP is marginally up 6%, but the CPC is also up 3%, the Greens down 9%... so you can see here, the Green vote split unlike in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

The NDP caucus is more diverse and female now as well; -2 older white men, +2 women and +1 Indigenous two-spirit MP man (the first in Canada). 

I shudder to ask this, but how many people are voting strategically against the Tories in seats where they have no chance?

[lilTommy]

... from my experience, Every. Single. Toronto. Riding. Many voters are not looking at their local race, they hear the Leaders, they hear the messaging from the LPC that only they can stop the CPC... and it sells them. It's maddening!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Scuzzbag Taleeb Noormohamed, symbol of everything that’s wrong with the Liberal Party, was declared the winner in Vancouver Granville last night. It is easily my biggest disappointment of the election.

[King of Kensington]

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

Stevo from EPP needs to retire the "Vaughan Italians are uniquely and especially Liberal" line.

[DC Al Fine]

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

Stevo from EPP needs to retire the "Vaughan Italians are uniquely and especially Liberal" line.

Kind of reminds me of how when Ford won, some modellers confused the map with the terrain and were totally convinced that that Del Duca was going to hold on in Vaughan-Woodbridge... Del Duca of course lost by nearly twenty points

[mileslunn]

Looking through results noticed a few observations:

1.  Rural areas becoming even more right wing.  In Atlantic Canada, massive swing from 2015 to 2021 in rural areas even those Liberals held.  By contrast urban ridings in Atlantic Canada saw Tories stay at rock bottom 2015 levels.  Since Atlantic Canada is most rural part of country, that may explain why early returns suggested a good night for Tories, but it was not.  In Ontario and West unlike Atlantic Canada, Tories already held most rural ridings so doing better there wouldn't net them new seats unlike in Atlantic Canada.

2.  Quebec seemed to have lots of strategic voting in rural Quebec.  The Blue wall where Tories won seats were quite impressive, in fact Megantic-L'Erable was second best showing for them outside Prairies (Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies was first and that includes Peace River which is for all intensive purposes Prairies), but their support plummeted outside that with BQ surging so I doubt next riding over changed much.  More likely many BQ supporter in Quebec City region strategically voted Tory while areas further West and further East, many Tories strategically voted BQ.  CAQ coalition is more or less BQ + CPC voters.  It seems in Quebec unlike 90s, divide is primarily urban vs. rural with Liberals strong with urban Francophones but very weak with rural Francophones.

3.  In Ontario, O'Toole generally tightened the gap in largely white suburbs although not enough to win but seems he made some gains amongst moderate whites.  But in ridings with large visible minority populations, he went backwards.  This was especially true in areas with a large Chinese population

4.  CPC + PPC combined vote was similar to Ford PCs in 2018 and outside minority-majority ridings was usually fairly close.  But in ones that are overwhelmingly non-white, Ford did significantly better.  Scarborough North probably best example of this where Doug Ford got 50%, but O'Toole only 21% to 66% for LPC.  This suggests Tories can win amongst minorities, but a lot are still skeptical of party.  My thinking is Ford was well known in minority communities whereas O'Toole is not and fear party is racist still runs deep, but if leader is well known they can win over conservative minded visible minorities, but if not they play it safe and stick with devil they know.  I almost wonder if keeping Ford silent was a mistake.  He wouldn't have helped in most of province, but may have helped party do better in ethnic communities.

5.  Alberta saw biggest drop in Conservative support thanks to Jason Kenney.  But went in different directions showing just how difficult it will be for UCP.  In Rural Alberta, almost all the drop in Tory support went to PPC and Maverick Party whereas in Calgary and Edmonton it went mostly to NDP or Liberals.  This suggests much of Rural Alberta feels Kenney not right wing enough whereas two cities feel he is too right wing thus real challenge for party.

6.  Despite better splits on left, Tories did even worse in GVRD than GTA in terms of votes.  It seems in last decade GVRD has seen a massive shift left and unlike GTA where Ontario PCs succeeded recently, there is no equivalent provincially.  BC Liberals 2013 was last time a centre-right party did well in Lower Mainland.

7.  Chinese-Canadians which were one minority group Scheer did well amongst really swung hard against Tories and cost them four seats.  Be interested if anyone knows why?

8.  PPC didn't cost Tories election as their strongest support was mostly in ridings Tories won.

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

10.  NDP it appears underperformed largely due to some particularly in Ontario at last minute breaking for Liberals to block Tory win.  Its likely this not only cost NDP seats, but probably cost Tories a number of seats too.  This is a problem for NDP as their best opportunity for gains is when either a Tory win is a foregone conclusion or they are not a threat.  And that is something party has no control over.

[StateBoiler]

... from my experience, Every. Single. Toronto. Riding. Many voters are not looking at their local race, they hear the Leaders, they hear the messaging from the LPC that only they can stop the CPC... and it sells them. It's maddening!

Theory: Considering Annamie Paul's incredibly poor performance in Toronto Centre compared to her by-election result, and the other by-election held then in York Centre which was almost a flip but won more comfortably this time, is the only time Liberal voters in Toronto free will vote in by-elections when they know that if the Liberal does not win, it's not going to change who runs government?

[jaichind]

After most of VBM ballots came in it seems now CPC-LPC vote share gap have narrowed a bit relative to 2019 versus widening on election night.

[Fubart Solman]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

Kinda goes with the election in general. Still sad about REB not winning though.

[Хahar 🤔]

LPC came last in Battlefords-Lloydminster (SK) behind NDP, Maverick and PPC. Decent result for Maverick with 7%.

There was a Green candidate there, so not last.

[Geoffrey Howe]

LPC came last in Battlefords-Lloydminster (SK) behind NDP, Maverick and PPC. Decent result for Maverick with 7%.

There was a Green candidate there, so not last.

Ah, thank you. The website I'm looking at doesn't list the Green.

[mileslunn]

Just realized only one seat out of 78 flipped in Quebec.  Amazing given how volatile Quebec has been last few election cycles. 

Kinda goes with the election in general. Still sad about REB not winning though.

Possibly calm before the storm.  In 2008, only 4 ridings flipped, but in 2011 58 out of 75 flipped.  So Quebec is unpredictable but when they swing, tend to swing hard.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Only 16-17 ridings look set to change hands in this election.
Is that some kind of record?

[mileslunn]

Wondering if anyone knows why Chinese community swung so hard from Liberal to Tories?  Was it O'Toole's hardline on China?  Over rising anti-Asian racism (which has increased a lot due to pandemic)?  Views party wasn't strict enough on COVID?  Be interested if anyone has any insights here.

[mileslunn]

Only 16-17 ridings look set to change hands in this election.
Is that some kind of record?

I think so, certainly in my 40 years of life it is the fewest but not sure about earlier elections.  I know provincially we've had ones like this.  BC 2005 and BC 2009 had few changes in seats and Ontario 2003 and Ontario 2007 were pretty similar so more common provincially but rare federally.