Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Brittain33]

Maybe some Republicans are encouraged by reopening?

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

Could be random selection and/or differential non-response (often seen after news affecting one side, usually temporary).  Could be some other factor, or any combination of these.

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

Could be random selection and/or differential non-response (often seen after news affecting one side, usually temporary).  Could be some other factor, or any combination of these.

My guess is that its the Reade fiasco. Luckily, the polls appear to confirm that the only people who believe her are people who want to and it still does look like Biden has a bigger threat to his left than to his right. Democrats downballot are still gaining. Like I said, maybe if Biden does turn out to be a dud and there is still a demand for change, Democrats can go the same route Republicans did in 1996 and tell voters that they are a check on Trump.

[BudgieForce]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

Could be random selection and/or differential non-response (often seen after news affecting one side, usually temporary).  Could be some other factor, or any combination of these.

My guess is that its the Reade fiasco. Luckily, the polls appear to confirm that the only people who believe her are people who want to and it still does look like Biden has a bigger threat to his left than to his right.

Not a bad guess. Last week was probably the worst week of coverage Biden got as the presumptive nominee. It also was one of the few stories that got similar coverage to Coronavirus.

[wbrocks67]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

No.

Navigator Survey tracking his approval back to 42/56, after being back up to 46/52 briefly two days ago.

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F05.06.20.pdf

[wbrocks67]

The MSN tracker also has Trump down to 36/61:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

[pbrower2a]

The MSN tracker also has Trump down to 36/61:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

This is about in the Goldwater-versus LBJ range, which would be unprecedented in an election involving an incumbent President. I can see Trump as that blatant a failure as President, but I am too much of a partisan hack to fully trust my opinion on that. Note also that a poll that relies heavily upon on-line input by volunteers may under-count some potential voters, typically poor, white, and elderly, who do not have Internet access.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Massachusetts: UMass-Lowell, April 27-May 1, 1000 RV

Approve 32
Disapprove 68

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 56

In contrast, Gov. Baker's approval is 81/18 (strongly 45/7).

Biden 58, Trump 30

[GP270watch]

 His polling with women is starting to look abysmal and if that holds he's going to lose by a lot.

[Frodo]

And now Trump is trying to appeal to Latino men to save his re-election chances.  Is he for real?

[Storr]

And now Trump is trying to appeal to Latino men to save his re-election chances.  Is he for real?

His appeal to minorities has always been "the economy is good and [insert racial group] unemployment is low so you should like me". I doubt that pitch works now with the economy in the toilet while the world is dealing with the pandemic. Further, I doubt anything he can say will be more meaningful to Latino voters than saying publicly "We love the DREAMers", the Congressional Democrats agreeing to a deal Trump said he wanted which involved protecting DREAMers, and then suddenly changing his mind and vetoing it once it got to his desk.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, Anzalone-Liszt (D)

I know some people will discount the numbers because of the survey’s provenance, but this is a very credible poll by someone who knows Nevada well. Nobody had better numbers in Nevada in 2018 than Anzalone when he polled for then-candidate Sisolak – he nailed the primary and general elections. I trust his numbers.

The demographics look solid: The party ID numbers are close to the actual registration figures, and the Hispanic number (14 percent) actually could be low in a presidential year here.

So let’s look at the results:

Sixty-four percent of voters have a positive reaction when asked how the governor “is doing responding to the coronavirus outbreak.” That includes 83 percent of Democrats, 57 percent of indies and – wait for it – 48 percent of Republicans. If you want evidence that the Sturm und Drang protesters are not the majority of the GOP, here it is.

Sisolak’s overall job performance rating on the pandemic: 64-34.

Compare those numbers responding to the coronavirus crisis to the president’s (46-53) and the mayor’s (28-61) – the latter’s are some of the worst I have seen for an elected official not embroiled in some kind of scandal. Perhaps her, ahem, erratic television performances have taken a toll and dented the family legacy.

The general job approval ratings for the three elected officials are not that different than their coronavirus response numbers:

–Sisolak: 64-32 Governor (D)

–Trump: 46-53 President (R)

–Goodman: 32-58 (mayor of Las Vegas)

For some perspective, right after the governor took office, the same pollster found Sisolak at 47-30; post-2019 session, Sisolak was at 58-28; and just before the pandemic hit, he was at 54-34.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-looks-strong-despite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts: UMass-Lowell, April 27-May 1, 1000 RV

Approve 32
Disapprove 68

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 56

In contrast, Gov. Baker's approval is 81/18 (strongly 45/7).

Biden 58, Trump 30

Nevada, Anzalone-Liszt (D)

I know some people will discount the numbers because of the survey’s provenance, but this is a very credible poll by someone who knows Nevada well. Nobody had better numbers in Nevada in 2018 than Anzalone when he polled for then-candidate Sisolak – he nailed the primary and general elections. I trust his numbers.

The demographics look solid: The party ID numbers are close to the actual registration figures, and the Hispanic number (14 percent) actually could be low in a presidential year here.

So let’s look at the results:

Sixty-four percent of voters have a positive reaction when asked how the governor “is doing responding to the coronavirus outbreak.” That includes 83 percent of Democrats, 57 percent of indies and – wait for it – 48 percent of Republicans. If you want evidence that the Sturm und Drang protesters are not the majority of the GOP, here it is.

Sisolak’s overall job performance rating on the pandemic: 64-34.

Compare those numbers responding to the coronavirus crisis to the president’s (46-53) and the mayor’s (28-61) – the latter’s are some of the worst I have seen for an elected official not embroiled in some kind of scandal. Perhaps her, ahem, erratic television performances have taken a toll and dented the family legacy.

The general job approval ratings for the three elected officials are not that different than their coronavirus response numbers:

–Sisolak: 64-32 Governor (D)

–Trump: 46-53 President (R)

–Goodman: 32-58 (mayor of Las Vegas)

For some perspective, right after the governor took office, the same pollster found Sisolak at 47-30; post-2019 session, Sisolak was at 58-28; and just before the pandemic hit, he was at 54-34.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-looks-strong-despite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump

Eighteen more electoral votes chime in, and not well for Trump. Even though the Nevada poll is by a pollster largely in the service of Democratic-leaning groups, it may understate how badly Trump is doing there. 53% disapproval in a State at this point? YOU LOSE!

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]

[Progressive Pessimist]

Even as a serial panicker, this does look like noise to me. Let's see how it changes if the Reade story loses its presence again amidst Trump continually, ubiquitously bungling his response to the pandemic. He just can't stop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic sweep as Ginsburg is getting closer to retirement in 2021. She will retire once Biden is sworn in

[wbrocks67]

ABC News/Ipsos - Trump's approval of the handling of the virus is still horrific at 42/57

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reopening-country-greater-risk-americans-poll/story?id=70555060&cid=clicksource_4380645_2_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1258724282353569792

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning reelection unless he allows testing and open up businesses in the right way. It is ridiculous that Libraries and movies and salons are still closed.

Stadiums and sports and schools and bars should remain closed

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump isnt winning reelection unless he allows testing and open up businesses in the right way. It is ridiculous that Libraries and movies and salons are still closed.

Stadiums and sports and schools and bars should remain closed

Why would schools stay closed while movie theaters open? It makes no sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning reelection unless he allows testing and open up businesses in the right way. It is ridiculous that Libraries and movies and salons are still closed.

Stadiums and sports and schools and bars should remain closed

Why would schools stay closed while movie theaters open? It makes no sense.

Due to fact some movie theaters are still open

[Dr. Arch]

Trump isnt winning reelection unless he allows testing and open up businesses in the right way. It is ridiculous that Libraries and movies and salons are still closed.

Stadiums and sports and schools and bars should remain closed

Why would schools stay closed while movie theaters open? It makes no sense.

Little in this country ever does.

[Hammy]

Trump isnt winning reelection unless he allows testing and open up businesses in the right way. It is ridiculous that Libraries and movies and salons are still closed.

Stadiums and sports and schools and bars should remain closed

Why would schools stay closed while movie theaters open? It makes no sense.

Becauset entitled people want their luxuries at the expense of everyone else's safety and health--that's all reopening the economy has ever been about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no excuse why saloons are closed this long, there is no way you will catch a flu bug by doing someone's hair.  If that was the case, barbers would have died already. Nails and  Tattoos yes. Also, Libraries should be open, everyone dont have access to computers

 Humans have already been given shots flu, menegites,pneumonia shots.  But if they are concerned about homelessness

[Dr. Arch]

There is no excuse why saloons are closed this long, there is no way you will catch a flu bug by doing someone's hair.  If that was the case, barbers would have died already. Nails and  Tattoos yes. Also, Libraries should be open, everyone dont have access to computers

lmao