Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

North Carolina: Meredith College, April 27-28, 604 RV (change from Feb.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+5)

Biden 47, Trump 40

Cunningham 43, Tillis 34

Cooper 52, Forest 32

Wow, that's huge. If there's a blue wave in NC this year, that would be amazing!

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: Meredith College, April 27-28, 604 RV (change from Feb.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+5)

Biden 47, Trump 40

Cunningham 43, Tillis 34

Cooper 52, Forest 32

Wow, that's huge. If there's a blue wave in NC this year, that would be amazing!

Nate Cohn has since pointed out that this poll has awful methodology.  It's essentially an unweighted email survey. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

North Carolina: Meredith College, April 27-28, 604 RV (change from Feb.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+5)

Biden 47, Trump 40

Cunningham 43, Tillis 34

Cooper 52, Forest 32

Wow, that's huge. If there's a blue wave in NC this year, that would be amazing!

Nate Cohn has since pointed out that this poll has awful methodology.  It's essentially an unweighted email survey. 

OK, fair enough.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1255654564835004418

Honestly, the fact that 35% think it's still better than 4 years is ludicrous. We're in the midst of an economic catastrophe unlike anything seen in almost every living person's lifetime, so of course it's worse now than it was 4 years ago. That much is true even if you're one of those people who thinks Trump miraculously pulled us out of the Mad Max-level American carnage of the Obama years.

It just shows you that even after Trump is gone America is going to have big issues dealing with the MAGA cult. 35% of your country is completely disconnected from reality

Granted anyone who does use the economy as a measuring stick and thinks the country is doing well is an utter idiot, but not everyone judges things based on the economy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most voters feel the 2017 tax cuts was a 2008 bailout to the Banks. Voters want to overwhelmingly rescind the tax cuts and want UBI benefits like European countries like Sweden are now doing.

McConnell says he doesnt want debt passed to Grandchildren and Rs believe money not coming into Treasurer in the form of tax cuts doesn't contribute to debt, but money coming out in form of tax hikes and social programs does contribute to debt

[pbrower2a]

Most voters feel the 2017 tax cuts was a 2008 bailout to the Banks. Voters want to overwhelmingly rescind the tax cuts and want UBI benefits like European countries like Sweden are now doing.

McConnell says he doesnt want debt passed to Grandchildren and Rs believe money not coming into Treasurer in the form of tax cuts doesn't contribute to debt, but money coming out in form of tax hikes and social programs does contribute to debt

That would require heavy taxation of economic rents, the latter now the cornerstone of the American economy.  Such is Georgism and not Marxism.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like there was just a very sudden drop in Trump's disapproval in the 538 average; he just went from -10 to -7.  I'm not sure what caused it; there's not really any change in the RCP average (which stayed around -7).

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like there was just a very sudden drop in Trump's disapproval in the 538 average; he just went from -10 to -7.  I'm not sure what caused it; there's not really any change in the RCP average (which stayed around -7).

I'm sure the change is mostly due to the addition of the IBD/TIPP poll with Trump at 44/44. It's a well-regarded pollster, so this poll has a high weight in 538's average.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, it's the combination of both Gallup and IBD releasing. For the first time in, well, ever, Trump's approval is worse with the Likely and Registered Voter screen on.

[pbrower2a]

Approval only of the President's performance on COVID-19 -- not disapproval. Note the difference in the legend. I am treating anything from 46 to 49% approval as effectively a tie. To be sure, COVID-19 is the focus of most Americans' concerns these days as a clear and present danger to ourselves, or at least to people for whom we care. COVID-19 is about as dangerous as any war for which there is conscription, and I assure you -- I am doing everything possible to dodge its draft! This time, draft-dodging is without qualification a noble act!  

Trump approval:

60% or higher approval
55-59%
50-54%
46-49% (white)
43-45%
41 or 42%
40% or lower

Trump's "best" state is Wyoming, where he gets 59% approval on his handling of COVID-19. As you can see. sixteen states give Trump 40% or lower approval on his handling of COVID-19, which shows Trump in an unflattering light. To be sure, these states have usually been trouble for Trump for other things, but because COVID-19 is the equivalent of war as a clear and present danger, it is the current focus of political life.    

Note that all Governors fare better than Trump in approval in their states (I take that the number for the District of Columbia is for the mayor or the majority of the city council, either Democratic.  

Approval of State governors

Red  - Democrats;  Blue -  Republicans

The saturation is the tens digit of approval (first digit of an approval number. Thus Kristi Noem (R, SD)  gets a saturation of "4" in the color red for 49% approval and David Ige (D, HI) gets only 39% approval and blue at the saturation level of "3". Those two Governors get the worst approval ratings.    

You will notice that Governors of Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont are Republicans and that Governors of Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, and North Carolina are Democrats, and thus we have the anomalous colors for those states.

Source:  http://www.kateto.net/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%20April%202020.pdf

(Under construction. Please bear with me because my map has frequently vanished).

Go ahead and comment!

[wbrocks67]

IDK what YouGovi is smoking, but their latest poll has Trump's approval at nearly 30% among Blacks and only -8 among Hispanics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems can still remove Biden before the nomination process and put Bernie as the nominee. This is Obama's pick to be nominated not the people's pick, Trump already said that

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432

They'll still vote for him, and they'll still turn out....rain or shine, virus or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why Biden is escaping the sexual allegations as of now, is that COV 19 is taking all the oxygen out the room. If this was a typical election,  Biden would have a much tighter election

[pbrower2a]

...it also takes the oxygen out of the room for discussing his corruption, his erratic foreign policy, his degradation of democratic norms, and of course the economic meltdown. Attention, sympathetic or derogatory, isn't being made to the allegations of Tara Reed.

Consider this: on June 6, 1944, were most Americans' minds on partisan politics in America?

OK, D-Day was a smashing success, and in a year Adolf Hitler, Martin Bormann, and Josef Goebbels would be in Hell. 
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Social distancing will end sooner or later, before January 2021 and Hunter Biden report is due out in August as well as the sex allegations.  Biden has a rosey scenario, but it's not over, yet.

Cali is set to reopen next week

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs 5/1
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 47/51 (-4)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/49 (-1)
Michigan: 43/54 (-11)
Minnesota: 44/54 (-10)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
Texas: 51/46 (+5)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)

Montana could be a dark horse.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432

How I wish today was election day....   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah due to fact bars, sports and schools, men and women with kids want their country back.

That's why Rs are rushing to put baseball on tv but without bars and fanfare and football it wont be the same

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432

They'll still vote for him, and they'll still turn out....rain or shine, virus or not.

They would vote for him in lesser numbers though. At least if the election were held today. However, I expect that the shutdown and resulting economic impact will be significantly lessened in 6 months when people actually vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa: PPP, April 30-May 1, 1222 voters

Approve 49
Disapprove 47

Trump 48
Biden 46

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

[wbrocks67]

Iowa: PPP, April 30-May 1, 1222 voters

Approve 49
Disapprove 47

Trump 48
Biden 46

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

Very similar to Civiqs showing Trump -1 in Iowa

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[RJ]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

Dems hold 3/4 Congressional districts in IA and JD Scholten can beat King, Dems are campaigning in Iowa in 2020 to protect incumbents

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...