Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Truth be told, I want Democrats to go out and vote -- and I want Republicans to feel shame about voting for Donald Trump and his political enablers.  But I must be objective, and at my age I have a longer view of history than most people on this site. Not only did I live through the events I paid attention when old people were talking about the past when I was a kid. I remember hearing about the 'Gay Nineties' -- and it had nothing to do with homosexuality.

I knew people old enough to have nostalgia for the 1920's... and all that they missed about that slum of a decade was their youth.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VBM will be tested, Biden should be elected but this is the first VBM and we dont know what to expect.  It can be a nail biter or a landslide.  If it was a all in person vote, we know what to expect

[pbrower2a]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, May 9-11, 600 LV

Biden 50
Trump 43

Biden at 50... Trump's 43 would be in range if it were still January. In a normal election (which I still assume at this point) my experience is that undecided voters tend to drift ineffectively toward the eventual loser. "50" is definitive in any statewide election. Trump's chances have toyed with a diamondback rattler. Leave rattlers alone; they don't want to meet you.

2149 likely voters
Margin of error 3.5%
Survey period May 14-17

With "Green Party nominee", "Libertarian Party nominee", and "another candidate" as options:
Biden 44.5%
Trump 43.9%
Another candidate 2.3%
Libertarian 1.2%
Green 0.4%
Undecided 7.6%

With only Trump and Biden:
Biden 52.3%
Trump 47.7%

It's Nader time.


https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/may-2020-Florida-general-poll/

(poll added because that poster added it -- PB)



... with third-party nominees not figuring yet, and time running out for such, the binary split for Florida looks most relevant. Trump's campaign is in a swamp full of alligators here. Trump may be the first President to lose two different home states in Presidential elections.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 12 percentage points (51%-39%) in Virginia according to The Roanoke College Poll. Each is viewed favorably by 36 percent of respondents, but Trump is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent while Biden’s unfavorable rating is 39 percent. U.S. Senator Mark Warner leads his undetermined Republican opponent (48%-31%). Warner’s favorable/unfavorable numbers stand at 37%/21%. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 563 potential Virginia voters* between May 3 and May 17 and has a margin of error of +4.1 percent. In what was then a hypothetical matchup, Biden led Trump 48%-40% in February. More than nine of 10 (91%) said they care a great deal who wins the presidential election in November, and 94 percent said it was very likely they would vote.

More than 90 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they would vote for Biden, while just under 90 percent of Republicans and their leaners said they would vote for Trump. Only 2 percent in each party said they would cross over to vote for the other party’s candidate. Only 2 percent said they were unsure about their vote, while 8 percent said they would vote for another candidate.

President Trump, Direction of the Country and Commonwealth, Governor Northam

A majority of Virginians (54%) disapprove of the way President Trump is handling his job, while just over one-third (36%) approve. That 36 percent figure matches the February Roanoke College Poll’s second-highest approval rating for Trump since he took office.

A majority (61%) of respondents think the country is on the wrong track, while 33 percent think it is headed in the right direction, which is significantly more negative than the last measurement in February 2020. Three-fifths (63%) disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job. The 20 percent who approve of Congress matches its high in February 2020 and three years prior to that.

Job approval for Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam soared to 59 percent, up from 40 percent in February, while 29 percent disapprove of his performance. More than half (57%) of respondents think that Virginia is headed in the right direction while 37 percent think it is on the wrong track. Northam was viewed favorably by 46 percent of respondents, up from 27 percent in February and the highest of his term. He was seen unfavorably by 31 percent, down only slightly from February.

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_may_2020
[/quote]

Sharks on the prowl in Chesapeake Bay.  More troublesome for Trump -- Biden is up by 12%, so the medium-red shade for Virginia may be unduly generous toward the President.

OK, there is some good news for Trump in Tennessee. He is up 53-36 against Biden. I'm guessing that Trump will win the state by a double-digit margin (undecided voters tend to drift ineffectively toward the eventual loser, in my experience). I'm guessing that Trump approval is over 50%, but probably not over 55%. I can imagine Tennessee S Trump's biggest electoral prize in 2020.
and Indiana.

Oh, by the way -- Tennessee has its own regional divide, one which seems to have lasted from just before the Civil War. When Tennessee had a referendum on whether to secede from the Union and join the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voters voted strongly to remain with the Union, but western Tennessee (which had the plantations and slaves) voted to secede. The vote was close statewide, and that election would prove a Pyrrhic victory for slavery and secession. Western Tennessee would be among the first areas of the Confederacy to be liberated by Union forces, and eastern Tennessee would serve as a staging ground for what I consider the death blow to the Confederacy -- the severing of the "middle South" (Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and southern Georgia) from the more notheasterly part of the Confederacy (Virginia, northeastern Georgia, and North and South Carolina) while taking away the large foundries of the Chattanooga area.

Western Tennessee, which contains Memphis and many descendants of slaves for which the Confederacy fought to keep in bondage, is actually pro-Biden (Biden leading 45-40 there). Central Tennessee is almost even at 41-37 for Trump. Eastern Tennessee, containing Knoxville and Chattanooga, is 61-26 for Trump. Now you know.    

 
https://www.etsu.edu/cas/sociology/asrl/documents/tnpoll5_bannertablespr2.pdf

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They say that Biden is tied with Trump with Senior voters, the Reade allegations are the main sticking point where we saw a poll yesterday that showed most Senior voters believe Reade.

Biden can win, but that's why we have a tie poll in FL instead of a +6 poll, from a FL University poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt winning TX, he just put his foot down on Keystone, sorry Solid, keystone is important to TX

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult, May 15-18

Trump approval: 41/55

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000172-2f32-dc3e-aff6-2fbf64d40000

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 17-19, 1500 adults including 1235 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

Virus handling: Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 50 (+1)


RV:

Approve 46 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Virus handling: Approve 43 (-3), Disapprove 54 (+2)

2020: Biden 47 (nc), Trump 42 (-1)

GCB: D 47 (-1), R 38 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kentucky: PPP, May 14-15, 1104 voters

Approve 53
Disapprove 41

Trump 55, Biden 39

McConnell 47, Generic D 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, May 14-18, 1323 RV (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Virus handling: Approve 41 (-5), Disapprove 56 (+5)

Biden 50 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac, May 14-18, 1323 RV (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Virus handling: Approve 41 (-5), Disapprove 56 (+5)

Biden 50 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)

How much of this includes the time he has spoken about abusing malaria medication?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, May 14-18, 1323 RV (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Virus handling: Approve 41 (-5), Disapprove 56 (+5)

Biden 50 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)

How much of this includes the time he has spoken about abusing malaria medication?

He said it on Monday, which was the final day this poll was in the field.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky: PPP, May 14-15, 1104 voters

Approve 53
Disapprove 41

Trump 55, Biden 39

McConnell 47, Generic D 44

McConnell will likely slip by despite having poor approval numbers (41-48). Trump will not win this state by the  huge margins by which Republican nominees have recently won by, Still, of you were to tell me that a Democratic nominee were about to win Rhode Island by only a 10% margin than by a 20% margin, I would be scared as a Democrat about overall results.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 18-19, 1115 adults including 957 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Virus handling: Approve 42 (+1), Disapprove 52 (-2)

Biden 43 (+2), Trump 35 (-1)


RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Biden 47 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), May 17-20, 1100 adults including 991 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Virus handling: Approve 41 (-2), Disapprove 51 (+4)


RV:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+3)

[Person Man]

And he's back to -10 on 538.

[roxas11]

And he's back to -10 on 538.

yeah it looks like he is collapsing on 538


which bad for him Because at this point Obama was already at 48 and george w bush was just starting to recover from his and he would also start hitting 48 not to long after that

both of them would reach 50 by election day

trump is in dangerous territory here
because every modern president who has failed improve or start break 50 at this point has not been reelected

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: PPP, May 18-19, 1234 voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

Biden 51, Trump 45

No Senate question.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: PPP, May 18-19, 1234 voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

Biden 51, Trump 45

No Senate question.

Not too bad for Trump to recover -- if that number were from at the latest... March.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, May 14-18, 1056 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since December.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: PPP, May 18-19, 1234 voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

Biden 51, Trump 45

No Senate question.

Not too bad for Trump to recover -- if that number were from at the latest... March.   

Doesn't change the map.

No approval/disapproval question, but it is safe to assume based on this data

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25332
 
24 Wks Till Washington State Presidential Ballots Are Counted, Trump on Track To Receive Smaller Share of Vote
Than Any Republican in 108 Years; Inslee Keeps Statehouse Safe For Democrats Against Any GOP Challenger:

Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump, mid-pandemic, with 25 million Americans unemployed, faces an uphill battle for re-election coast-to-coast, and nowhere is that more evident than in Washington State, where, at the moment, Trump is on track to receive a smaller share of the Evergreen State's popular vote than any Republican Presidential candidate since William Howard Taft in 1912.

At this hour, assuming that the election is held on schedule in November, assuming Trump is the Republican Party nominee and Joe Biden is the Democratic party nominee, the contest stands:

* Biden, 57%.
* Trump, 31%.
* Some other candidate, 5%.
* Undecided, 7%.

If you remove the undecided voters and re-normalize the totals, the contest stands:

* Biden, 61%.
* Trump, 33%.

If you assume that no serious 3rd party candidate will emerge in the 21 weeks till voting begins, the further re-normalized results are:

* Biden 65%.
* Trump 35%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9c7a11-4c4c-469e-aad9-6fb9ce040a5b

that Trump approval in Washington state is abysmal. I don't distinguish disapproval over 55%. I find it hard to believe that Trump projects to do worse in Washington than Goldwater did in 1964... but Trump projects to do worse than Goldwater. l

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher




[/quote]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, May 17-20, 1207 RV (change from early April)

Approve 44 (-5)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+6)

Biden 48 (+6), Trump 40 (-2)

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when Trump was like -20 approval in Michigan? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval on the handling of the virus continues to collapse in new ABC/Ipsos poll

March 11-12: 43/55 (-12)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)
April 29-30: 42/57 (-15)
May 6-7: 42/57 (-15)
May 20-21: 39/60 (-21)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/black-americans-latinos-times-died-covid-19-poll/story?id=70794789

[Person Man]

And he's back to -10 on 538.

yeah it looks like he is collapsing on 538


which bad for him Because at this point Obama was already at 48 and george w bush was just starting to recover from his and he would also start hitting 48 not to long after that

both of them would reach 50 by election day

trump is in dangerous territory here
because every modern president who has failed improve or start break 50 at this point has not been reelected

I'm still not putting this out of reach of extreme identity politics yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, May 13-18, 1189 adults (change from late March)

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+3)

Virus handling: Approve 46 (-4), Disapprove 52 (+5)

Among 970 RV:

Biden 43, Trump 41