Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[BudgieForce]

USA Today/Suffolk, April 21-25, 1000 RV (change from Dec.)

Approve 43 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+4)

Suffolk has been one of the most favorable high-quality pollsters for Trump.

While not the same as job approval, Trump's favorables are at 39/55. Biden's are at 44/44.

I've been noticing alot more discussion on how favorable can prove to be more indicative of election results. I'm not sure Biden's numbers will stay where they are, but it seems like Biden is basically as close to a generic democrat as you can get right now.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

Even if it gains traction, it shouldn't have any effect on Trump's approval ratings.

Sure it will. It changes the topic, and puts Trump back on the offensive. Come on dude, think a bit...

Respectfully, we're about to pass 60,000 deaths. You cant really change the topic, no matter how much Fox is desperately trying.

[BudgieForce]

Both Suffolk and Emerson, two of Trump's best pollsters, have Trump underwater by a substantial margin. So I'm going to put very little stock into Gallup.

[BudgieForce]

Both Suffolk and Emerson, two of Trump's best pollsters, have Trump underwater by a substantial margin. So I'm going to put very little stock into Gallup.

Cherry picking polls like this is why you’ll be disappointed if you lose.

I'm not cherry picking. Im calling the Gallup poll an outlier, which it is.

[BudgieForce]

Trump's approval rating is surging, according to the latest Gallup poll. He's now at his highest point ever.

Seriously? Based on one poll?

He is up 3 points in the latest WaPo poll. Despite claims his bounce faded, it really hasn't entirely. He is consistently trending up in a long term perspective.

No.  You're just wrong.  Go look at this chart: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

That shows him at -9.5, whereas just before his bounce he was at -10.9. Yes it goes up and down, but his peaks keep getting higher and his valleys not as low.

Edit: Not trying to be rude, but your very much putting the cart before the horse.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, it's the combination of both Gallup and IBD releasing. For the first time in, well, ever, Trump's approval is worse with the Likely and Registered Voter screen on.

[BudgieForce]

PPP (national): April 23-24, 1403 RV (change from early March)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Glad to see PPP being active again. I know people like to rag on them, but they were one of the best pollsters in 2012.

[BudgieForce]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

[BudgieForce]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

Could be random selection and/or differential non-response (often seen after news affecting one side, usually temporary).  Could be some other factor, or any combination of these.

My guess is that its the Reade fiasco. Luckily, the polls appear to confirm that the only people who believe her are people who want to and it still does look like Biden has a bigger threat to his left than to his right.

Not a bad guess. Last week was probably the worst week of coverage Biden got as the presumptive nominee. It also was one of the few stories that got similar coverage to Coronavirus.

[BudgieForce]

Seems like the CNN sample is slightly more republican this month than last month, which would explain the 1 point shift in his approval rating. But yeah, seems like Trump is stable in the not quite -10% range.

[BudgieForce]

lol The Hill, Trump keeps on winning 51/49

The last 6 Harris X polls have been

49/51
46/54
50/50
48/52
50/50
51/49


They have been very favorable to Trump this past year. More so than Rasmussen. Regardless, that's why we have aggregates.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup: May 1-13, 1028 adults (2-week change)

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (+1)

Interestingly, Congress's approval is up to 31%, its highest since 2009.

I wonder if Gallup had a methodology change back in January besides switching from everyday to every two weeks. They've been one of Trump's best pollsters along with Harris X and Rasmussen all year.

[BudgieForce]

I took a quick minute to investigate if Gallup had gone through any methodology changes since last year and low and behold:

Firstly, they've significantly reduced the amount of people they poll. In 2019 for example, they regularly poll between 2000 to 3000 people. For the year of 2020, they average around 1000 people.

They've also increased their time frames. In 2017 and 2018, their polls were broken up into 6 day periods(in which we'd get the daily fluctuations). In 2019, they slowly started to increase their polling time frame to 2 weeks.

So, in summary. Gallup has reduced the amount of people they poll and increased the amount of time they poll.

I'm not sure how that leads to an improvement in Trump's numbers, but it does answer my question of methodology changes.

[BudgieForce]

*sigh*

Why do I even bother with this thread?

[BudgieForce]

*sigh*

Why do I even bother with this thread?

Put DTT on Ignore and the quality goes up considerably.

It's frustrating though when certain posters come out of the wood work and only post in this thread when a poll gets released that fits their personal narrative. But your right, I should be less stingy with my ignore button.

[BudgieForce]

If this is real, then Gallup is trash. I'm not sure what their new methodology is, but having Trump at +1 approval when he's at -7/8 nationally is embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1261378944164651008

Gallup used to poll between 2,000 to 3,000 people over a 6 day period. But now they poll 1000 people over a 2 week period. It's not hard to come to the conclusion their polls might be less accurate.

Edit: That's just my opinion though.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, their methodology is sound. I just found it interesting how their polls have changed since the beginning of Trump's presidency. In theory, the changes Gallup made shouldn't effect Trump's numbers. However, its hard not to notice how their polling has gotten significantly friendlier to Trump since January when they did switch up their methods.

[BudgieForce]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

That's some RV filter.

[BudgieForce]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen
July 9-11
1200 RV

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-5)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trump-job-approval-up-to-44/

I dislike when pollsters try and find reasoning behind why their weekly poll had a huge swing. Sometimes weekly polls are just noisy, it doesn't have to be a "response to the media criticism of the president".

[BudgieForce]

46% approval for Trump in Gallup's last poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523340-americans-satisfaction-with-countrys-direction-rises-ahead-of-election?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

One of the highest ratings he's received.

And more surveyed Americans say they approve of the way the U.S. is headed.

If you read your link you'd see that it says that Trump's approval rating is 44/55 among Likely Voters.

[BudgieForce]

Side note: I've contacted RCP about this before but never get a response. The criteria for which number they place in their average seems to change. In this case, they've put the Gallup "Adults" number into their aggregate, but there is a "LV" number which should take priority. I've noticed they'll do this with Emerson aswell, sometimes including the leaner number, sometimes just using the topline.

[BudgieForce]

I know we're not supposed to believe polls anymore, but I would really like a poll to see if Trump's recent behavior has hurt him in any way.

[BudgieForce]

Rasmussen is so drunk right now. Jesus!

I hope to God they don't switch over to tracking Biden's approval numbers.