COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1258829831879430149

Straight babble.

Word salad.

[Beet]

Very bad news.

It was abruptly reported today that three boys died of Covid-19. A four year old in New Jersey, a five year old in New York City, and a seven year old in Westchester. Symptoms apparently don't start for up to six weeks after exposure which is why we're only seeing it now. Now 73 children are being treated. This follows similar reports recently in the U.K. and Italy.

[It’s so Joever]

I have decided to post daily numbers for Colorado starting today, mainly to see the effects of lifting the stay-at-home orders here over the next few weeks. Given our State is pretty small, the data will jump a bit, so so will also post 7 day trends each week.
These will each be a day late because for some reason, CDPHE doesn’t put up positivity % data until the next day.

May 7
New cases: 456 (-15.7%)
Total cases: 18,827

New deaths: 16 (-30.4%)
Total deaths: 960

“Real cases” 758 (-29.3%)


I am using Bandit’s suggested formula of (new cases)*(%pos/5)
It’s not a reflection of actual cases for obvious reasons, but it’s another way to gauge if the crisis is improving/getting worse.

Also, stay-at-home orders end this weekend in the Denver metro area. It will be interesting to see the results.

[It’s so Joever]

Very bad news.

It was abruptly reported today that three boys died of Covid-19. A four year old in New Jersey, a five year old in New York City, and a seven year old in Westchester. Symptoms apparently don't start for up to six weeks after exposure which is why we're only seeing it now. Now 73 children are being treated. This follows similar reports recently in the U.K. and Italy.

As awful as it is, I hope these deaths are talked about on mainstream media for weeks just to get the idea that this virus isn’t severe out of people’s thick heads. Maybe now that it’s not just granny dying, people will care (or more realistically will not)

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

USA STRONG

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1258829831879430149

Of course you don't need a vaccine against coronavirus. You can just shoot yourself up with desinfectants and you're good to go.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Very bad news.

It was abruptly reported today that three boys died of Covid-19. A four year old in New Jersey, a five year old in New York City, and a seven year old in Westchester. Symptoms apparently don't start for up to six weeks after exposure which is why we're only seeing it now. Now 73 children are being treated. This follows similar reports recently in the U.K. and Italy.

Here are some links:
At least 85 kids across U.S. have developed rare, mysterious COVID-19-linked illness

Top NYC Pediatrician Warns of ‘Alarming New Information’ About COVID-19 and Kids

I doubt it'll have much impact. Sacrificing children to Mammon isn't exactly novel behavior for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Erick Erickson finally snaps.  Click to read the whole worthwhile thread.

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1258905505357082625

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I went through the CDC report table on Coronavirus deaths and compared it to 2019 Census projections to estimate what % of each age group has died from the virus in the US.  Note the CDC has just under half of death reported so far (37,000 out of 78,000 total), so I prorated their figures up to fit the current death count.  This number is out of the entire population, not positive cases or estimated infections, and says nothing about infection rate across groups.

Age   Deaths per Million
0-14     0.3
15-24   2
25-34   13
35-44   36
45-54   100
55-64   236
65-75   535
75-84   1393
85+      4094

In other words, 2 out of every million Americans age 15-24 have died from coronavirus.  By contrast, just over 0.4% of the US population 85 or older has already died from the virus.

[Pericles]

Not directly related to US, but a huge deal if true: Now there are reports the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, we may be talking about a much earlier spread in the US and elsewhere.

I've been saying this for a while, I don't know if it was like this where you guys live but here, EVERYONE was sick like constantly between November and mid-late January. Like, it seemed like everyone I knew (including my wife and myself) got sick with weird respiratory sh**t back during the winter, and everyone I know who went to the doctor for it said they tested for the flu but it wasn't the flu, just "unknown upper respiratory infection" was the diagnosis.

I really think this has been going around longer than people realize, and everyone was fine.

Maybe....or it could have been one of thousands of viruses which cause upper respiratory infections.
Considering the sudden spikes in mortality in known Covid hotspots, I don’t think this is as likely as people say. There certainly may have been some transmission earlier than we thought, but I doubt most Americans have had Covid.
Of course, as usual I hope you are right.

Yeah, I've heard that there may have been cases in Italy in like October 2019, but I don't believe it. Otherwise the pandemic would have escalated a lot earlier. Sometimes the simple and boring theory-that the pandemic did actually start in late December 2019 in China-is accurate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I went through the CDC report table on Coronavirus deaths and compared it to 2019 Census projections to estimate what % of each age group has died from the virus in the US.  Note the CDC has just under half of death reported so far (37,000 out of 78,000 total), so I prorated their figures up to fit the current death count.  This number is out of the entire population, not positive cases or estimated infections, and says nothing about infection rate across groups.

Age   Deaths per Million
0-14     0.3
15-24   2
25-34   13
35-44   36
45-54   100
55-64   236
65-75   535
75-84   1393
85+      4094

In other words, 2 out of every million Americans age 15-24 have died from coronavirus.  By contrast, just over 0.4% of the US population 85 or older has already died from the virus.

BTW, if you want to get a rough estimate for IFR by age, and assume a 0.6% overall IFR with every age group having an equal likelihood of infection, you can multiply these numbers by 25.  (I.e. assuming 13 million Americans, or 4% of our population was infected, and we have identified about 10% of our cases.)

So the IFR for the 85+ group is 10%, while the IFR for the 45-54 group is 0.25%.  The differences by age are actually slightly less than I expected, though still extreme.

[Frodo]

Erick Erickson finally snaps.  Click to read the whole worthwhile thread.

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1258905505357082625

He's so right.  And it is refreshing to see a conservative criticize fellow conservatives.  They have no real concept of sacrifice.  We would never have won the Second World War with these people if they can't put up with what basically amounts to an inconvenience.  

[Tintrlvr]

Not directly related to US, but a huge deal if true: Now there are reports the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, we may be talking about a much earlier spread in the US and elsewhere.

I've been saying this for a while, I don't know if it was like this where you guys live but here, EVERYONE was sick like constantly between November and mid-late January. Like, it seemed like everyone I knew (including my wife and myself) got sick with weird respiratory sh**t back during the winter, and everyone I know who went to the doctor for it said they tested for the flu but it wasn't the flu, just "unknown upper respiratory infection" was the diagnosis.

I really think this has been going around longer than people realize, and everyone was fine.

Maybe....or it could have been one of thousands of viruses which cause upper respiratory infections.
Considering the sudden spikes in mortality in known Covid hotspots, I don’t think this is as likely as people say. There certainly may have been some transmission earlier than we thought, but I doubt most Americans have had Covid.
Of course, as usual I hope you are right.

Yeah, I've heard that there may have been cases in Italy in like October 2019, but I don't believe it. Otherwise the pandemic would have escalated a lot earlier. Sometimes the simple and boring theory-that the pandemic did actually start in late December 2019 in China-is accurate.

We do have confirmation I think on the early December case in France. Assuming that's right, it did arrive in Europe very early on, which doesn't rule out it originating in Wuhan in November, of course. A confirmed October case in Europe obviously would change the story of the epidemic considerably.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/8 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8 (Today):

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

[Grassroots]

Daily new cases decreased on a Friday? Even by a little that's a good sign.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1258829831879430149

So, the implication is that "it will go away without tests", so... no increase in testing after the first wave to keep track of where/when a second wave might be starting? This clown doesn't take a day off, it's just 24/7 carnival music.

It's ever more apparent that everyone has been giving Mr. Trump far too much credit for his handling of the pandemic. It's not just that he's incompetent, it's that has no true comprehension of anything involving the pandemic or the response to it, and lacks the self-awareness to even recognize that he doesn't know what he's talking about. Donald Trump is indistinguishable from a poorly programmed Chinese room.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1258853971164368896

This is just staggeringly incoherent. We're MONTHS into this and he doesn't seem to have even a basic grasp of how disease transmission occurs, and why someone who once tested negative might later test positive.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

AP Exclusive: Docs show top WH officials buried CDC report

The decision to shelve detailed advice from the nation’s top disease control experts for reopening communities during the coronavirus pandemic came from the highest levels of the White House, according to internal government emails obtained by The Associated Press.

The files also show that after the AP reported Thursday that the guidance document had been buried, the Trump administration ordered key parts of it to be fast-tracked for approval.

The trove of emails show the nation’s top public health experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spending weeks working on guidance to help the country deal with a public health emergency, only to see their work quashed by political appointees with little explanation.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Australian cases nearly back to zero. Eradicated in ACT. 1 new case (positive test) each in WA and SA over the last week. I think WA has 7 cases left before we get to zero.

The point is that this virus does come to an end.



As winter approaches with the cold setting in in Tasmania and Victoria, they are having more difficulty lowering their numbers.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 117,000

UK has a slight increase coming. It's been building slowly for a few weeks, but I have few more recoveries able to add which reflects underlying growth in cases somewhere.  One thing is for certain, it is fast becoming the biggest case centre in that part of the world. I would not be surprised if it has a second peak above the first one.


France



France 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 77,500

France on it's way down.


Germany



Germany 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,400

Germany looking really good. I simply add the data, and it plots immediately on par.


Spain



Spain 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 34,000

Spain continues to decline slowly.


Italy



Italy 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 81,000

Italy continues to decline. They are starting to report recoveries with 14,000 recoveries add as a catch up in the last three days.


USA



USA 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 570,000

USA has a weekly rhythm of peaks on Thursday-Friday and lows on Sunday-Monday which are gradually losing steam. In two weeks time, the numbers in the USA should start to drop more substantially, but over the last fortnight, numbers have been fairly flat.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging. Note the trend up in the UK data growth line.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-triple-therapy-hong-kong-health/index.html

(CNN)A combination of three antiviral drugs plus an immune system booster seemed to help patients recover more quickly from coronavirus infections, doctors in Hong Kong reported Friday.

They said the approach needs more testing but it could offer another treatment possibility for Covid-19 patients. Currently the only authorized treatment is the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which also shortens the duration of illness but is limited in supply.

Dr. Kwok-Yung Yuen at Hong Kong University and colleagues tested the HIV drug combination of ritonavir and lopanivir along with the general antiviral drug ribavirin and a multiple sclerosis drug called beta interferon.

Patients in the study all had mild to moderate symptoms and were treated within seven days of testing positive. Some doctors think treating patients earlier in the course of the infection might be better.

[Beet]

A private report by a group called MACE based on cell phone location data says that there was no activity in a high security section of the Wuhan Institute of Virology between Oct. 7 and 24 of last year. Further it appears there is additional evidence that there may have been an accident at the lab between Oct. 6 and 11, rather specific dates. If this is true then there has been a half-year long coverup of how this thing started. Just breaking on NBC now.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

[Grassroots]

A private report by a group called MACE based on cell phone location data says that there was no activity in a high security section of the Wuhan Institute of Virology between Oct. 7 and 24 of last year. Further it appears there is additional evidence that there may have been an accident at the lab between Oct. 6 and 11, rather specific dates. If this is true then there has been a half-year long coverup of how this thing started. Just breaking on NBC now.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

These people's heads should be on f**king spikes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A private report by a group called MACE based on cell phone location data says that there was no activity in a high security section of the Wuhan Institute of Virology between Oct. 7 and 24 of last year. Further it appears there is additional evidence that there may have been an accident at the lab between Oct. 6 and 11, rather specific dates. If this is true then there has been a half-year long coverup of how this thing started. Just breaking on NBC now.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

These people's heads should be on f**king spikes.

Whose heads should be on spikes? The ones who reported that there might have been a shutdown at the Wuhan lab due to lack of cellphone activity? While these reports might turn out to be incorrect in the end (as the NBC News article you were replying to does in fact indicate, beginning with its headline), I happen to think that it would be premature to already resort to such harsh measures.

[Joe Republic]

Roy (of Siegfried &) has died, aged 75. Covid-19 finished the job their pet tiger started in 2003.

[Torrain]

So....

Does anyone else think we've massively misplayed this.

No, I don't think meat packers tend to be that elderly. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

^This. Meat packers tend to be below fifty, and have a physical job that requires a degree of physical fitness. They are literally the worst possible group to draw the kind of assumptions that The Free North is making. The OP is clearly just looking for data that fits a specific narrative.

The relatively benign outcomes we are observing from outbreaks like this are indeed a sign that we are going about this all wrong. 

If we are going for herd immunity, we will save hundred of thousands of lives by achieving it through voluntary deliberately infection of young and healthy people, as opposed to just continuing to let it spread randomly.  You might reduce deaths in the long run by more than 90%.

I'm sorry, and I say this with all respect, but this is an utterly unworkable idea. You cannot infect people without their consent, and you will never get millions of young Americans, already disgruntled with this administration, to consent to being infected with a disease that has a non-zero chance of killing them.

If these young people are infected in the course of daily life when the states re-open, that's one thing. But to straight-up infect people with a deadly virus, for the sake of the economy is quite another. If its in the context of a clinical trial, to determine vaccine efficacy, I get it. But that's a tiny subsection, not a population-wide strategy.