Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1519640035485962241

[Person Man]

What are the odds of Putin launching an atomic strike against the US and NATO on May 9?

As near to zero as makes no difference.

Better way of thinking about this is whether Kim has actually done anything. I mean, he launched a nuke test. Putin launched a nuke test.

[rc18]

So as I thought, the UK are sending Brimstones 'over the ground' against land targets.

https://twitter.com/ForcesNews/status/1519632774252089345?s=20&t=xcMoXq77jWk...

Now all we need is to dangle them under those Reaper drones we're getting rid of, slap a self-defense pod under it, invite a Ukr pilot over to RAF Waddington to press the big red button, and Ukraine will be able to wipe out armoured columns at range.

Hell, better yet, give the Ukrainians the Protector prototype for some "field testing" with its 18 Brimstones. I'm sure General Atomics won't mind.

https://twitter.com/RoyalAirForce/status/1286618378627514369?s=20&t=xcMoXq77...

https://twitter.com/byMBDA/status/1019229487819616256?s=20&t=xcMoXq77jWkX_9k...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Frizenhop/status/1519673087368876032



https://twitter.com/pernilleru/status/1519635547144216576

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Frizenhop/status/1519673087368876032

Wouldn't Russia just lose too much revenue? The Russian state is de facto already bankrupt as a result of this stupid war.

Of course that would assume Mr. Putin has any rationality left, which I'm no longer sure of. He'll probably just look for the PRC to bail him out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Frizenhop/status/1519673087368876032

Wouldn't Russia just lose too much revenue? The Russian state is de facto already bankrupt as a result of this stupid war.

Of course that would assume Mr. Putin has any rationality left, which I'm no longer sure of. He'll probably just look for the PRC to bail him out.

Maybe Putin in his paranoia is taking the German government's "we still need Russian gas to produce weapons for Ukraine" argument a bit too literal? Who knows..

[Logical]

The whole story is worth a read. I did not know until now how close Ze and his cabinet were to death on the first days. That he chose to stay and fight rather than flee is a testament to his personal courage. In another world where Ze chose to flee west, Kyiv could have fallen.
https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1519632455816392704

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1519659488592240641?cxt=HHwWgoC9...
Pretty big that someone like him would be there.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

Question for the Americans in here, this should go through almost unanimously, right?

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

Question for the Americans in here, this should go through almost unanimously, right?

The usual suspects (Qanon Rs & the squad) would certainly vote against.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1519659488592240641?cxt=HHwWgoC9...
Pretty big that someone like him would be there.

One thing I have to say about this war is that it does feel like a mix between Power Rangers, a "Wrestling" Match, and Blazing Saddles.

We are now at the part of the show where the main boss goes in to fight himself. So yeah. This war now has bosses, not just mini-bosses like that Chechen piece of sh**t or various other villains making cameos.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

Question for the Americans in here, this should go through almost unanimously, right?

The usual suspects (Qanon Rs & the squad) would certainly vote against.

Right, but it or something very close will likely pass by something like 410 YEA - 15 NAY - 10 ABS

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Ukraine poling data from Germany (Infratest dimap for ARD-Deutschland, 04/28)




Opinion of the German government's reaction to the Russian invasion, in general

Is going too far 15% (+4)
Is appropriate 36% (-1)
Is not going far enough 41% (-4)


Opinion of admitting and supporting Ukrainian refugees

Is going too far 11%
Is appropriate 75%
Is not going far enough 10%


Opinion of the financial support to Ukraine

Is going too far 20%
Is appropriate 59%
Is not going far enough 14%


Opinion of the diplomatic efforts to end the war

Are going too far 6%
Are appropriate 41%
Are not going far enough 42%


Opinion of the support of Ukraine with weapons

Is going too far 27%
Is appropriate 35%
Is not going far enough 31%


Opinion of the sanctions against Russia

Are going too far 14%
Are appropriate 34%
Are not going far enough 45%




Opinion of the military support for Ukraine

German government should be careful 40%
German government should be tough on Russia 52%


"Should be tough on Russia", broken down by party affiliation

Greens 77%
FDP 72%
CDU/CSU 56%
SPD 51%
AfD 17%


Opinion on delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine

Support 45% (-10)
Oppose 45% (+8)


Support for delivering heavy weapons to Ukaine, broken down by party affiliation

FDP 70% (+5)
Greens 67% (-5)
CDU/CSU 53% (-10)
SPD 45% (-21)
AfD 12% (-8)


Opinion on the import of Russian gas and oil

Immediate stop 22%
Gradual phase-out 54%
Continue import 19%




Opinion of Olaf Scholz

Is acting considerate
Yes 64%
No 28%

Is up to the job of Chancellor
Yes 47%
No 44%

Can lead the country through a crisis well
Yes 37%
No 49%

Convinces me of his course in the Ukraine war
Yes 33%
No 57%

Is communicating convincingly
Yes 27%
No 66%




Background/Analysis: I'll try to give a possible explanation for some of the seemingy contradictory numbers on taking a hard line against Russia and the supply of Ukraine with heavy weapons, the latter of which dropped noticably compared to two weeks ago.

Aside from the fact that Bucha was probably fresher on people's minds two weeks ago, Olaf Scholz gave an interview about a week ago in which he explained his reluctance to deliver tanks to Ukraine with his fear of a nuclear war. Apparently this lead to a collapse in support, as you can see especially among voters of Scholz' SPD. Nevertheless, the SPD almost unanimously voted in the parliament today to upgrade arms deliveries to Ukraine to heavy weapons, which of course also leads to contradictory political messaging. Hence also Scholz' generally weak numbers on leadership and communication skills.

In the same poll, Scholz' overall approval rating dropped 12 points to 39%, making him less popular than vice-chancellor/economy minister Robert Habeck, foreign Annalena Baerbock and finance minister Christian Lindner.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

It's about half of Russia's annual military budget.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519721358120431616
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519722167126171656
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519722792513638404

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1519659488592240641?cxt=HHwWgoC9...
Pretty big that someone like him would be there.

One thing I have to say about this war is that it does feel like a mix between Power Rangers, a "Wrestling" Match, and Blazing Saddles.

We are now at the part of the show where the main boss goes in to fight himself. So yeah. This war now has bosses, not just mini-bosses like that Chechen piece of sh**t or various other villains making cameos.

Kadyrov, in all likelihood, never set foot in Ukraine, or only did so VERY briefly for a few photo ops. Gerasimov personally leading the offensive from near the front seems more likely, just because it's LITERALLY do-or-die for him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

[Middle-aged Europe]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

[Astatine]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

And Yugoslavia.

[Person Man]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

And Yugoslavia.

Tankers and Fascists are f cked. News at 9.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519742892138508294

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519742892138508294

I do have to point out that this guy is about as reliable as the claims on Russian TV.

I get that he supports Ukraine, most of us do, but I really don't want to gobble up his ridiculous claims of "Russia captured 4 villages, but had 300 KIA". Apparently, he is spying on their built-in heartrate monitors.

We already had this BS with "analysts" saying Russia expended all of their modern, long-range missiles 4 weeks ago. Well, apparently, no one notified Putin of that, since at least several were fired just today.

For fairly reliable & neutral info on the war, follow OSINT channels.