Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Mehmentum]

Unless Russia is prepared to logistically support hundreds of thousands of more troops, I'm not sure what a full mobilization is supposed to accomplish.  Sending thousands of untrained, unsupported conscripts into the teeth of battle hardened Ukrainians will just make the operation an even bigger mess.

[Yoda]

I am pretty sure the end result will be

a) Some European states will de facto pay for Russian gas in RUB
b) Other European states will refuse
c) The states in a) will just buy more gas from Russia and re-sell it to those states in b) who can keep their honor intact.

I'm sure this will absolutely be true in the short term, but long term Putin is overplaying his hand, and will end up f****** russia. Germany has already secured gas from the middle east to replace russian gas, and I'm sure almost every other European country is looking to do the same long term. Many governments I'm sure will source in the future from Canada, the US, Norway or the UK even if it costs more just so they are no longer financing terrorism. Also European countries will only hasten their plans to switch over to renewables completely even if it causes them pain in the here and now. I think I'm in the minority on this but I don't mind higher gas prices if it defunds the terrorist state of russia. I also realize my financial/commuting situation is not the same as everyone else's.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519405553390342146
 NATO is going to start arming Ukraine with superior Western made weaponry 👀

[urutzizu]

Quite informative report on Russian energy exports since the war of aggression was launched:

https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Fossil-fuel-imports-from-Russia-first-two-months-of-invasion.pdf



My thoughts:

- EU oil embargo (which seems inevitable at this stage) will have a effect, but not so much. Gas is where the real money is made, and there a embargo will take much more time. Of course Russia might now just take that decision for Europe anyway.

- Despite the rhetoric, when it comes down to it (as seen previously) China is neither able nor willing to significantly bail out Russia.

-The western fears/concerns about Chinese oil buying to help evade sanctions are not really justified, but the concerns about India's imports are totally ridiculous. And hypocritical.

[NOVA Green]

Are we so outdated and stuck in the Cold War era, where now allegedly Superpowers are using dolphins as weapons of war?

I don't give a f**k about which Superpower used dolphins during the Cold War, but regardless have always believed that Dolphins should not be weapons of war and perhaps that might be a reason for "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish".

Satellite photos show Russia has placed trained dolphins at the entrance to a key Black Sea port, in a move that may be designed to help protect a significant Kremlin naval base there, according to a naval analyst.

The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show two dolphin pens at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea — which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

H I Sutton, a submarine analyst who first reported on the dolphins for the U.S. Naval Institute on Wednesday, said the pens were moved there in February, around the time of the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the 1960s, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions to help guard against underwater threats. According to marine experts, dolphins have the most sophisticated sonar known to science, making it relatively easy for them to detect mines and other potentially dangerous objects on the ocean floor that are hard to detect using electronic sonar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/russian-military-dolphins-navy-ukraine/

Meanwhile we naturally have Douglas Adams "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" (4th book), so long and thanks for all the fish which ties back into the narrative of the previous three books,

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we so outdated and stuck in the Cold War era, where now allegedly Superpowers are using dolphins as weapons of war?

I don't give a f**k about which Superpower used dolphins during the Cold War, but regardless have always believed that Dolphins should not be weapons of war and perhaps that might be a reason for "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish".

Satellite photos show Russia has placed trained dolphins at the entrance to a key Black Sea port, in a move that may be designed to help protect a significant Kremlin naval base there, according to a naval analyst.

The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show two dolphin pens at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea — which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

H I Sutton, a submarine analyst who first reported on the dolphins for the U.S. Naval Institute on Wednesday, said the pens were moved there in February, around the time of the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the 1960s, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions to help guard against underwater threats. According to marine experts, dolphins have the most sophisticated sonar known to science, making it relatively easy for them to detect mines and other potentially dangerous objects on the ocean floor that are hard to detect using electronic sonar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/russian-military-dolphins-navy-ukraine/

Meanwhile we naturally have Douglas Adams "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" (4th book), so long and thanks for all the fish which ties back into the narrative of the previous three books,

You learn something new every day...

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbr...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1519478625397088258

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbr...

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

[Woody]

Recommend to use this livemap by Henry Schlottman:

https://uawardata.com/

Incredibly insightful and detailed. He cites sources and makes daily insights without making to bold assumptions.

DATE
April 27th, 2022

ASSESSMENT
0600 UTC: Russia made methodical progress toward their likely objective of cutting Ukrainian lines of communication in northern Donbas. In the Kurul'ka, they are now approximately 10 kilometers from the key city of Sloviansk. Russian forces also began entering Yampil, potentionally seeking to establish another bridgehead over the river Siverskyi Donets. It is unlikely Sloviansk will fall quickly however and Ukrainian resistance shows no signs of weakening as both sides continue to move additional forces into the area. Tensions are escalating in Transnistria, but Russian forces there are unlikely to be capable of any major offensive action

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

It's hard to tell how accurate these claimed kill counts actually are, since Russia isn't engaging them or contesting things (yes, I know the Russians are far from honest in what they claim is happening, but how they lie about it could tell us something). Fog of war isn't made any more clear if one side claims to know all the paths and the other side isn't giving us anything.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Recommend to use this livemap by Henry Schlottman:

https://uawardata.com/

Incredibly insightful and detailed. He cites sources and makes daily insights without making to bold assumptions.

DATE
April 27th, 2022

ASSESSMENT
0600 UTC: Russia made methodical progress toward their likely objective of cutting Ukrainian lines of communication in northern Donbas. In the Kurul'ka, they are now approximately 10 kilometers from the key city of Sloviansk. Russian forces also began entering Yampil, potentionally seeking to establish another bridgehead over the river Siverskyi Donets. It is unlikely Sloviansk will fall quickly however and Ukrainian resistance shows no signs of weakening as both sides continue to move additional forces into the area. Tensions are escalating in Transnistria, but Russian forces there are unlikely to be capable of any major offensive action

Thanks for the link.
This livemap is quite good.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

How much of an arms production industry does Germany have in general?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1519348793480732675
I recognize a good meme when I see one. This one made me laugh. It is true this war has not gone the way Mr. Putin has planned.
Laughing is therapeutic.

[MATTROSE94]

I'm starting to think the rumors of Putin using May 9th to declare full mobilization are increasingly likely to be true:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519417943955808257?s=20&t=Qi2nim3...

What are the odds of Putin launching an atomic strike against the US and NATO on May 9?

[rc18]

Are we so outdated and stuck in the Cold War era, where now allegedly Superpowers are using dolphins as weapons of war?

I don't give a f**k about which Superpower used dolphins during the Cold War, but regardless have always believed that Dolphins should not be weapons of war and perhaps that might be a reason for "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish".

Satellite photos show Russia has placed trained dolphins at the entrance to a key Black Sea port, in a move that may be designed to help protect a significant Kremlin naval base there, according to a naval analyst.

The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show two dolphin pens at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea — which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

H I Sutton, a submarine analyst who first reported on the dolphins for the U.S. Naval Institute on Wednesday, said the pens were moved there in February, around the time of the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the 1960s, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions to help guard against underwater threats. According to marine experts, dolphins have the most sophisticated sonar known to science, making it relatively easy for them to detect mines and other potentially dangerous objects on the ocean floor that are hard to detect using electronic sonar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/russian-military-dolphins-navy-ukraine/

Meanwhile we naturally have Douglas Adams "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" (4th book), so long and thanks for all the fish which ties back into the narrative of the previous three books,

You misunderstand, these are Russia's replacement generals.

At least they're more intelligent than the last lot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Are we so outdated and stuck in the Cold War era, where now allegedly Superpowers are using dolphins as weapons of war?

I don't give a f**k about which Superpower used dolphins during the Cold War, but regardless have always believed that Dolphins should not be weapons of war and perhaps that might be a reason for "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish".

Satellite photos show Russia has placed trained dolphins at the entrance to a key Black Sea port, in a move that may be designed to help protect a significant Kremlin naval base there, according to a naval analyst.

The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show two dolphin pens at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea — which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

H I Sutton, a submarine analyst who first reported on the dolphins for the U.S. Naval Institute on Wednesday, said the pens were moved there in February, around the time of the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the 1960s, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions to help guard against underwater threats. According to marine experts, dolphins have the most sophisticated sonar known to science, making it relatively easy for them to detect mines and other potentially dangerous objects on the ocean floor that are hard to detect using electronic sonar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/russian-military-dolphins-navy-ukraine/

Meanwhile we naturally have Douglas Adams "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" (4th book), so long and thanks for all the fish which ties back into the narrative of the previous three books,

You misunderstand, these are Russia's replacement generals.

At least they're more intelligent than the last lot.

I see... Dr. Strangelove had a General Ripper, while Putin has General Flipper!

[Person Man]

I'm starting to think the rumors of Putin using May 9th to declare full mobilization are increasingly likely to be true:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519417943955808257?s=20&t=Qi2nim3...

What are the odds of Putin launching an atomic strike against the US and NATO on May 9?

They’re probably full of sh**t.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

It's hard to tell how accurate these claimed kill counts actually are, since Russia isn't engaging them or contesting things (yes, I know the Russians are far from honest in what they claim is happening, but how they lie about it could tell us something). Fog of war isn't made any more clear if one side claims to know all the paths and the other side isn't giving us anything.

Splitting the difference between Russian and Ukrainian claims is a very rudimentary way to do things, but it is possible. RuMOD posts claims semi-regularly - these are even further from the truth than UkrMOD claims. In mid-March, they claimed 35 Bayraktars had been shot down (Ukraine had probably acquired no more than 36 at that point), and at the month’s end, they conceded 5000 Russian casualties v.s. 30,000 Ukrainian ones. The claims they’ve made about armoured vehicles and jets would make the Ghost of Kyiv believers blush, and this is to say nothing of the semi-official claims out about by various military/military-adjacent figures on social media (the ones not publicly endorsed by RuMOD, that is).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

It's hard to tell how accurate these claimed kill counts actually are, since Russia isn't engaging them or contesting things (yes, I know the Russians are far from honest in what they claim is happening, but how they lie about it could tell us something). Fog of war isn't made any more clear if one side claims to know all the paths and the other side isn't giving us anything.

Splitting the difference between Russian and Ukrainian claims is a very rudimentary way to do things, but it is possible. RuMOD posts claims semi-regularly - these are even further from the truth than UkrMOD claims. In mid-March, they claimed 35 Bayraktars had been shot down (Ukraine had probably acquired no more than 36 at that point), and at the month’s end, they conceded 5000 Russian casualties v.s. 30,000 Ukrainian ones. The claims they’ve made about armoured vehicles and jets would make the Ghost of Kyiv believers blush, and this is to say nothing of the semi-official claims out about by various military/military-adjacent figures on social media (the ones not publicly endorsed by RuMOD, that is).

Interesting.
And yes, it looks likely the Russian claims are even farther from truth.
Only 5,000 casualties is...how to put this...absurd.
As to why the numbers look ludicrous, is it fair to say that it comes down to domestic factors - need to look good, need to show strength, keep up morale, etc?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

It's hard to tell how accurate these claimed kill counts actually are, since Russia isn't engaging them or contesting things (yes, I know the Russians are far from honest in what they claim is happening, but how they lie about it could tell us something). Fog of war isn't made any more clear if one side claims to know all the paths and the other side isn't giving us anything.

Splitting the difference between Russian and Ukrainian claims is a very rudimentary way to do things, but it is possible. RuMOD posts claims semi-regularly - these are even further from the truth than UkrMOD claims. In mid-March, they claimed 35 Bayraktars had been shot down (Ukraine had probably acquired no more than 36 at that point), and at the month’s end, they conceded 5000 Russian casualties v.s. 30,000 Ukrainian ones. The claims they’ve made about armoured vehicles and jets would make the Ghost of Kyiv believers blush, and this is to say nothing of the semi-official claims out about by various military/military-adjacent figures on social media (the ones not publicly endorsed by RuMOD, that is).

Interesting.
And yes, it looks likely the Russian claims are even farther from truth.
Only 5,000 casualties is...how to put this...absurd.
As to why the numbers look ludicrous, is it fair to say that it comes down to domestic factors - need to look good, need to show strength, keep up morale, etc?

That accounts for most of it, but there are inevitable discrepancies between casualty claims because of differing stances on how/whether to include the DPR/LPR gangs in the figures.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519467610760531974?cxt=HHwWjMC-sbrvnZYqAAAA

The question as usual is, at what cost are they obtaining these gains.
Ukrainian conscription will likely make life quite difficult for Russia down the line.

Well most of those advances was a result of UA forces retreating due to them being exposed to heavy shelling, so most likely not critical.

Also nice of the posters above to use Michael MacKay as a source and again make dumbfounded claims. 300 supposed Russian KIAs in one day and probably more casualties/wounded as a result, from supposedly taking villages, yet UA had the means to count and confirm these while at the same time doing withdrawals and under fire in the span of under 24 hours, with no photographs, drone footage, POWs, radio, etc.

It's hard to tell how accurate these claimed kill counts actually are, since Russia isn't engaging them or contesting things (yes, I know the Russians are far from honest in what they claim is happening, but how they lie about it could tell us something). Fog of war isn't made any more clear if one side claims to know all the paths and the other side isn't giving us anything.

Splitting the difference between Russian and Ukrainian claims is a very rudimentary way to do things, but it is possible. RuMOD posts claims semi-regularly - these are even further from the truth than UkrMOD claims. In mid-March, they claimed 35 Bayraktars had been shot down (Ukraine had probably acquired no more than 36 at that point), and at the month’s end, they conceded 5000 Russian casualties v.s. 30,000 Ukrainian ones. The claims they’ve made about armoured vehicles and jets would make the Ghost of Kyiv believers blush, and this is to say nothing of the semi-official claims out about by various military/military-adjacent figures on social media (the ones not publicly endorsed by RuMOD, that is).

Interesting.
And yes, it looks likely the Russian claims are even farther from truth.
Only 5,000 casualties is...how to put this...absurd.
As to why the numbers look ludicrous, is it fair to say that it comes down to domestic factors - need to look good, need to show strength, keep up morale, etc?

That accounts for most of it, but there are inevitable discrepancies between casualty claims because of differing stances on how/whether to include the DPR/LPR gangs in the figures.

Ah, that makes sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the odds of Putin launching an atomic strike against the US and NATO on May 9?

As near to zero as makes no difference.