Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519742892138508294

I do have to point out that this guy is about as reliable as the claims on Russian TV.

I get that he supports Ukraine, most of us do, but I really don't want to gobble up his ridiculous claims of "Russia captured 4 villages, but had 300 KIA". Apparently, he is spying on their built-in heartrate monitors.

We already had this BS with "analysts" saying Russia expended all of their modern, long-range missiles 4 weeks ago. Well, apparently, no one notified Putin of that, since at least several were fired just today.

For fairly reliable & neutral info on the war, follow OSINT channels.

He’s quoting the Ukraine staff reporting here
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1519734232716922882

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Earlier claims about Western spare parts restoring 20 Ukrainian jets to service may well have been intended to cover up the delivery of whole aircraft or mostly intact airframes. Bear in mind that Ukraine only restored a few of their own jets per year prior to the war (at a faster rate than other countries, I should add) and they had a vast fleet of ex-Soviet jets to draw from, so what they have received from Europes likely included engines etc. It is possible that there is a ship of Theseus situation going in here.

Where this is relevant is in the evolution of the Bulgarian response: https://www.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1519779917956792320

Even if their divided legislature does not allow substantial direct military aid, repairs are likely to involve critical parts from Bulgarian stocks, in addition to their industrial capacity. Singling them out was a mistake.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1519478625397088258

This latest offensive by Russia is reminding me of the battle of Kursk, where the Wehrmacht launched their last major offensive on the Eastern Front in an effort to envelop and surround Soviet forces defending that city while they were still able to hold the initiative.  I think we all know the outcome of that battle...  

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like it's coming, the international Russian war crimes tribunal.


https://twitter.com/coe/status/1519690302726025216

[Frodo]

President Putin's disinformation campaign aims to win Russian hearts and minds with an "alternative version of events"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519828953770377218

[NOVA Green]

Earlier claims about Western spare parts restoring 20 Ukrainian jets to service may well have been intended to cover up the delivery of whole aircraft or mostly intact airframes. Bear in mind that Ukraine only restored a few of their own jets per year prior to the war (at a faster rate than other countries, I should add) and they had a vast fleet of ex-Soviet jets to draw from, so what they have received from Europes likely included engines etc. It is possible that there is a ship of Theseus situation going in here.

Where this is relevant is in the evolution of the Bulgarian response: https://www.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1519779917956792320

Even if their divided legislature does not allow substantial direct military aid, repairs are likely to involve critical parts from Bulgarian stocks, in addition to their industrial capacity. Singling them out was a mistake.

Bolded an interesting perhaps key part of a potential hypothetical means of indirectly transferring jets to Ukraine.

Although I have never been involved in any type of organized criminal car theft gangs, there is the concept of the "Chop Shop", where you steal a vehicle and then break it down into sub-parts which then get distributed into multiple other supply chains and independent contractors and both monetize the depreciation on your investment while also falling under the radar LEAs.

If it's good enough for cars, would imagine it's good enough for fighter jets...

Even if a jet engine from such a hypothetical happened to be shot down and recovered don't believe there are ID numbers which would need be filed off unlike an auto theft.

Interesting concept about how such an arrangement might hypothetically work and maintain plausible deniability regarding Western direct provisioning of Migs to Ukraine, while simultaneously increasing their estimated active jet fighter capacity by 25-35%.

(This assumes they still have sufficient pilots with no training required, although I believe there are many previous articles I have read / posted which indicate that a shortage of trained Ukrainian fighter pilots is not the issue.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

It's about half of Russia's annual military budget.

Well, once you subtract the Russian "overhead" it's probably more than the Russian actual budget.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

It's about half of Russia's annual military budget.

Well, once you subtract the Russian "overhead" it's probably more than the Russian actual budget.

So now they’re going to be outgunned and outspent. I heard Ukraine has more tanks now.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

Most of the US aid packages to Ukraine are in the hundreds of millions, not billions. This is a big win for Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519781128705646597
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1519776531689754626

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1519861303061495810

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

Is there a notable pro-Putin faction in the SPD or is Schroeder just a real weirdo?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1519900431895470082
Same as always the Battle of Donbas has seen Russia sustain heavy losses for minimal gains. At this point it’s more or less a rope a dope on Ukraine part until they are read for the winning counter attack

[BlueSwan]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

[Woody]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Is this criticism directed towards any specific political action Biden should or should not have taken or he is he just a form of boogeyman and scapegoat for you?

[Yeahsayyeah]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

The most frustrating part is this "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" line of thought that is showing, there. That US imperialism is bad, but Russian imperialism is worse at the moment would be a totally reasonable position.

[Person Man]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Is this criticism directed towards any specific political action Biden should or should not have taken or he is he just a form of boogeyman and scapegoat for you?

1) it’s well known that Russia is manipulating their currency and 2) you would like this if a Republican was doing this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

The most frustrating part is this "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" line of thought that is showing, there. That US imperialism is bad, but Russian imperialism is worse at the moment would be a totally reasonable position.

I have a close friend who is still a member of the Left, but who's contemplating leaving the party because he thinks the Left's Russia position is as much bullsh**t as Wagenknecht's COVID vaccination position.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

Of course, the criticism of NATO and the US is usually coming from the fact that ultimately the US system of global government is still the Chief architect of a neoliberal global order that is crushing the soul of humanity and smothering people under the boot of Capitalism and Profit. Or as Lenin said, -

"When a war is waged by two opposing groups of robbers for the sake of deciding who shall have a freer hand to oppress more people, then the question of the origin of the war is of no real economic or political significance."

So while I do agree with you that there is a very clear greater and lesser evil when it comes to Ukraine; and NATO imo is actually a net boon for Left-Wing and Progressive movements; the side of me that sympathizes with the romanticism of revolutionary socialists understands their perspective.

The fascists just want to see the world burn under the heel of totalitarian oppression; period.

[Person Man]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

Of course, the criticism of NATO and the US is usually coming from the fact that ultimately the US system of global government is still the Chief architect of a neoliberal global order that is crushing the soul of humanity and smothering people under the boot of Capitalism and Profit. Or as Lenin said, -

"When a war is waged by two opposing groups of robbers for the sake of deciding who shall have a freer hand to oppress more people, then the question of the origin of the war is of no real economic or political significance."

So while I do agree with you that there is a very clear greater and lesser evil when it comes to Ukraine; and NATO imo is actually a net boon for Left-Wing and Progressive movements; the side of me that sympathizes with the romanticism of revolutionary socialists understands their perspective.

The fascists just want to see the world burn under the heel of totalitarian oppression; period.

I have said before on this forum that there may come a time when the politics or consequences  of any particular war, especially one where our government is involved in, becomes irrelevant. That is a future we may or may not be able to avoid.

[jaichind]

[Woody]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Is this criticism directed towards any specific political action Biden should or should not have taken or he is he just a form of boogeyman and scapegoat for you?

Biden announced to the whole world that the ruble was going to turn into "rubble"... It didn't.

Now he looks even more weak.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Is this criticism directed towards any specific political action Biden should or should not have taken or he is he just a form of boogeyman and scapegoat for you?

Biden announced to the whole world that the ruble was going to turn into "rubble"... It didn't.

Now he looks even more weak.

Aside from the fact that this is not really a specific political action (like in something government authorities actually implement as policy), you thought that the mere act of announcing it would actually lead to it? I'm still not following your reasoning here and all of your criticism comes across as incredibly superficial and "style over substance"-like.