Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1520093374757363713

I guess Russia has a "program" for their May 9th parade and the parade is going to be quite a bit shorter than previous years 131 vehicles vs 197 last year.  Some notable aircraft will be missing too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArmUkraineNow/status/1520070928457207808

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.

The question is whether at the some point the military/commanders just no longer stand for it. Why continue their misery for a guy who's living in growing delusion?

[jaichind]

Lavrov said

"If they [Ukraine] were honest and bona fide negotiators, we could gradually make significant progress in the negotiation process, and Ukraine would be given security guarantees from a number of countries: originally, five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, Turkey, and probably someone else. We had nothing against that."

"You understand, we cannot allow these guarantees to apply to Crimea and the regions in the East of Ukraine which we have recognized as independent states,"

Seems like a small Russian concession on the issue of Ukraine demand of security guarantees.  Main issue here is that Crimea and Donbas cannot be part of that from the Russian point of view.

[Storr]

Can't park there, mate.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520026903784087553?s=20&t=vanD-kFwbpV...

[😥]

I want to recommend you this map to see the state of affairs at the front. It is updated quite often, even has the location of Russian military units, and is very easy to use. The information on this map is 99% accurate, I guarantee it. The developers of this map promise to add an English interface soon. In my opinion, this is the best map I've ever seen

https://deepstatemap.live

[2952-0-0]

Can't park there, mate.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520026903784087553?s=20&t=vanD-kFwbpV...

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.

Like what? Invading another country and committing genocide?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.

Like what? Invading another country and committing genocide?

Putin has essentially been running his country without any constitutional or parliamentary supervision for years now, so no changes here.

When it comes to firing nuclear weapons there is supervision in the sense that Putin would need concurrence of one or two of his top generals (Shoigu/Gerasimov), as far as we know.

Speaking of Gerasimov, I read earlier today that he had personally assumed command of the Russian forces in Izium, which is of course a bit unusual for the Chief of the General Staff (that's a bit like the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs personally overseeing the evacuation of Kabul last year on site). So there's also some mirco-managing going on at that front.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.

Like what? Invading another country and committing genocide?

Putin has essentially been running his country without any constitutional or parliamentary supervision for years now, so no changes here.

When it comes to firing nuclear weapons there is supervision in the sense that Putin would need concurrence of one or two of his top generals (Shoigu/Gerasimov), as far as we know.

As far as we know.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, that's a "relief".


https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1520122140267356165

[Storr]

I'd have the same reaction as these ladies if I had to listen to Lukashenko ramble on like your Uncle at Thanksgiving:

https://twitter.com/ClaudiuA1/status/1520060714580328450?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt8...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Joko has invited both Zelensky and Putin to this year's G20 summit in Bali.


https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1520019070736809986


U.S. not happy about the Putin invitation.


https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1520110842963968001

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5lTtV8nCp5_g

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

Stalin was at least smart enough to leave operational control of the war to Zhukov and STAVKA. At this rate, Putin is doing a Nicholas II speedrun.

At least from the autumn of 1942 onward. 

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1519861303061495810

The usual rogue's gallery of sh**tbags.

This in particular is not the right time to give oxygen to the kooks, much less empower them with attention. The kooks thrive on attention. It is not a court of law. To conflate the two, sometimes now, more than ever, is the road to ruin.

[NOVA Green]

Good long article from the Washington Post about growing dissent among the oligarchs regarding Putin's Invasion of Ukraine.

Looks like the decision to go full blown into Ukraine, as opposed to more of a narrow-cast focus on the Donbas, was only known to a handful of Senior Military and FSB officers.

It's a WP exclusive so gotta pay to play, but here are a few snippets...

In interviews, several Russian billionaires, senior bankers, a senior official and former officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, described how they and others had been blindsided by their increasingly isolated president and feel largely impotent to influence him because his inner circle is dominated by a handful of hard-line security officials.

When 37 of Russia’s wealthiest business executives were called to the Kremlin for the meeting with Putin hours after he launched the war on Feb. 24, many of them were depressed and shocked. “Everyone was in a terrible mood,” one participant said. “Everyone was sitting there crushed.”

“I’d never seen them as stunned as they were,” another participant said. “Some of them could not even speak.”

They’d been kept waiting, as usual, for more than two hours before the president appeared in the Kremlin’s ornate Ekaterininsky Hall — ample time to consider their fate. For some of the executives, as they quietly discussed the consequences of Putin’s war, it was the moment they realized that it was all over for the business empires they’d been building since Russia’s market transition began more than 30 years ago.

“Some of them said, ‘We’ve lost everything,’ ” one of the participants said.

When the president arrived, no one dared issue a whimper of protest. Stone-faced, they listened as Putin assured everyone Russia would remain part of global markets — a promise soon made hollow by the series of Western sanctions — and told them he’d had no other choice than to launch his “special military operation.”

Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion appears to have stunned not just the billionaires but the breadth of the Russian elite, including senior technocratic officials and some members of the security services, according to two of the Russian billionaires and a well-connected Moscow-based former state official.

“Apart from those directly involved in the preparations, [Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu, [chief of the army’s general staff Valery] Gerasimov, and some from the FSB, no one knew,” said one of the billionaires.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/29/russia-oligarchs-ukraine-invasion-dissent/

[Storr]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

[It’s so Joever]

This idiot will learn why we don’t have universal healthcare. (Stolen joke)

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Russian looting of Ukraine continues, apparently at a more systemic level than simple robbery and theft of items such as electronics and washing machines.

Looks like we are starting to see a bit of trend here...

Ukrainian officials are accusing Russian forces of seizing more than 2,000 pieces of artwork from the besieged port city of Mariupol and moving them to the Russian-controlled areas of the Donbas region.

Among the works taken was the Gospel of 1811 from the Venetian printing house for the Greeks of Mariupol and several original works from 19th-century Mariupol native Arkhip Kuindzhi and famed Russian romantic painter Ivan Aivazovsky. The Kuindzhi art museum, which is named for the Mariupol native, was badly damaged during a Russian airstrike on March 21, according to the Guardian.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/29/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-A6D2X7OUBRG6NNWZ4DFFCJTMQE

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also claimed Friday that Russian troops were "robbing" wheat stocks, as heavy fighting continues in the country's eastern and southern regions.

"The Russian occupiers are robbing the villagers," said the General Staff. "Thus, for example, over 60 tons of wheat together with the cargo trucks were stolen from the agricultural cooperative in the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska."

CNN is unable to verify these allegations independently.

Ivan Fedorov, mayor of the southern city of Melitopol, which has been held by Russian troops for weeks, also spoke about the removal of grain stocks.

"Today it has moved to an industrial scale," he said. "Yesterday we published a video of a convoy of 50+ cars with trailers taking grain out of our occupied territories ... And today we do not know where they sent it."

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-04-29-22/h_7c249581b9a74a96469e0b7b0e0b7c0d

Previously I had posted about Russian relocation of factory tooling from newly occupied regions of Ukraine.

[...]

In Melitopol, the mayor, Mr. Fedorov, said Russian forces were stripping factories of their machinery and shipping it back to Russia.

[NOVA Green]

Brain Drain from Russia likely to continue...

Surprised Trump hasn't flamed Biden yet on the whole H1-B Visa program for Russian scientists carve outs....

President Biden wants Congress to expedite visas for Russian scientists eager to leave their country in the midst of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, an effort to accelerate a brain drain already underway and further deprive President Vladimir V. Putin of some of Russia’s top talent.

An administration proposal sent to Capitol Hill as part of a larger package requesting $33 billion in spending on the war would suspend for four years the requirement that scientists applying for H1-B visas have a sponsoring employer, eliminating one of the biggest obstacles for many seeking to come to the United States.

The measure would apply only to Russian citizens with master’s or doctoral degrees in science or engineering fields like artificial intelligence, nuclear engineering or quantum physics. Administration officials argued that such a move would have dual advantages — costing Russia while benefiting America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/world/europe/biden-russia-scientists.html?smid=url-copy

[dead0man]

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also claimed Friday that Russian troops were "robbing" wheat stocks, as heavy fighting continues in the country's eastern and southern regions.

"The Russian occupiers are robbing the villagers," said the General Staff. "Thus, for example, over 60 tons of wheat together with the cargo trucks were stolen from the agricultural cooperative in the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska."

to be fair, Russian authoritarian govts stealing food from Ukrainians is just part of their culture.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

Taiwan is the worlds leading microchip producer, they have also imposed sanctions on Russia. Russia had to shut down one of their tank manufacturing plants due to Taiwanese sanctions.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the worlds largest semiconductor producer in the world.

[AndyHogan14]

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

Taiwan is the worlds leading microchip producer, they have also imposed sanctions on Russia. Russia had to shut down one of their tank manufacturing plants due to Taiwanese sanctions.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the worlds largest semiconductor producer in the world.

Which is why the United States would likely defend Taiwan in the event of a PRC attempt to take the island. Taiwan's importance to the world's semiconductor industry cannot be understated.

[NOVA Green]

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

Taiwan is the worlds leading microchip producer, they have also imposed sanctions on Russia. Russia had to shut down one of their tank manufacturing plants due to Taiwanese sanctions.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the worlds largest semiconductor producer in the world.

Agreed...

Still the US has some of the best Semiconductor fabs in the world in terms of not only ISO Class I "Cleanrooms", but additionally the R&D and IP to easily convert chipset production if required within a full "wartime economy".

The factory in which I work could easily convert technology and tooling to convert wafers for commercial mfg goods into other applications.

Intel just a few miles North could easily convert their chip sets into military production vs consumer goods.

There is still a high quality and skilled American Mfg workforce in the semi-conductor industry, and although naturally the capital expense and long lead time of building new fabs "on-shore" involve long lead times of project development and expenses before the cost eventually materializes into not only profits but "dual capacity".

The company I work for put a bunch of money into the COVID-19 tooling tech for mass vaccinations and testing leveraging existing IP and tooling, but the lead time involved got beaten by other competitors to the new potential market.

Still, diversification of the global mfg supply chain helped avoid some of the major supply chain issues other companies were experiencing since we could ramp up local production to cover deficits in our global "Outs", while meanwhile some of our larger mfg facilities were in lockdown in places like Singapore for example.

So long as Taiwan stays strong when it comes to exporting chips with "dual-technology" to China > Russia, plus can hold the line as a major supplier of chips to China for their domestic mfg ops, pretty sure that China will not be able to resupply key chip sets to support the Russian War Machine.

[The Mikado]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.