Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

They are neo-Nazis. Their main guys consists of previous Russian soccer hooligans, who used to harass and beat up Central Asian migrants in the streets of Moscow.

If I was the Ukrainians I wouldn't want to associate with these guys, nor harbor them. Too much bad PR.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660614870058795008?s=12

[Person Man]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

I disagree. He's always been a gambler. It's just that he made some bets that won and it made him overconfident.

Arresting Khordokovsky and breaking the Yeltsin-era elite to establish dominance was a risk. It worked nicely, allowing him to replace them with his own cronies whom he made.

War with Georgia in 2008 was a risk. The West could've intervened. It didn't.

Assassinating various opposition figures abroad was a series of colossal risks, both the Litvinenko murder and then, worse, the attempted murder of Skipral that had dozens of ordinary Brits poisoned in the process. West could've retaliated. It didn't.

Coming back into direct power after puppeting Medvedev was a risk. The Russian people could've risen up. They didn't.

Invading Crimea was a risk. It could've been a debacle. It wasn't. It was the biggest success of his Presidency.

Stirring up the revolt in the Donbas was a risk. One of his rebels could've shot down a Malaysian airliner full of Western civilians...oh, wait, that actually happened. And he still got away with it.

So why wouldn't he think he could get away with this?

It's not gambling at this point, though. It's dictator-syndrome; he's become so detached from reality that he can't make informed decisions, whether they're risky or not. You can see the same pattern in, for example, Hitler.  Every move he made was a risk, and he got away with it... until he overreached beyond what Germany could actually support, or the rest of the world would tolerate, and then he kept pushing until everything collapsed in ruins.

That's the silver lining of this cloud. These jackholes don't know where to stop. Eventually someone does something about them, but for many, its already too late. Of course, there's always the risk that someone can and does just keep winning, but the problems they cause usually don't outlive them. See Franco and Alexander the Great. There still is the risk that these problems do outlive their overly ambitious creators and the entire situation becomes a permanent thing. You can even say that is the story of America to a point. That probably happens in history on a global level as many times as you can count on your fingers, though.

[Woody]

Interfax:

Putin informed about the raids in Belgorod region. "All the necessary strength and tools are in place there"

Rosgvardia, FSB, and other law enforcement are on the scene.

https://t.me/interfaxonline/32408

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1660628712209907714?s=12
Russia sowing in the Donbas: “HAHA F**K YEAH!! YES!!”
Russia reaping in Belgorod: “WELL THIS F**KING SUCKS. WHAT THE F**K”

[Torie]

Nice lighting effects.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1660633126173831169?s=12
Look Russia can’t get everything it wants. It must accept the fact that retaking Belgorod will be impossible and must give it up to end the war

[oldtimer]

Interfax:

Putin informed about the raids in Belgorod region. "All the necessary strength and tools are in place there"

Rosgvardia, FSB, and other law enforcement are on the scene.

https://t.me/interfaxonline/32408

What tools ?

According to the russians an Ukrainian force of just 2 tanks and infantry have advanced 10 miles in a few hours.

It's the most rapid invading advance in internationally recognised russian territory since the day of June 22nd 1941, and that was 3 million solders not 2 tanks.

I have to believe Strelkov that there is no russian army all the way to Moscow, it's just an open road all the way to the kremlin.

The key is what to do once the Ukrainian army gets there, how to treat the locals, how to administer.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1660640624708661250?s=12

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1660640624708661250?s=12

https://twitter.com/jeziiik_jezo/status/1660603418942029825?s=20

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1660633126173831169?s=12
Look Russia can’t get everything it wants. It must accept the fact that retaking Belgorod will be impossible and must give it up to end the war

Don't be unreasonable. Russia should get Belograd back in exchange for Kalingrad, with the real estate of the latter sold off for vacation homes to assist in funding the reconstruction of Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660664585773363201?s=12
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660665054071599104?s=12
🍿

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1660628339344699392?s=20

[Woody]

The DRG group in Belgorod Oblast was caught committing a war crime today. They shot at a civilian car and seized it. Good job trying to convince people you're the "liberators"

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1660641155384594434

[Storr]

lol:

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1660666845404315649?s=20

[Stranger in a strange land]

We may soon be facing a situation where Russia has nothing left but reservists. I'll say this much: Red Storm Rising has been more accurate about modern war than just about any non-fiction book ever.

The Soviet Army in Red Strom Rising is much, much more competent, better-led, and less corrupt than the Russian Army that invaded Ukraine in 2022.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The DRG group in Belgorod Oblast was caught committing a war crime today. They shot at a civilian car and seized it. Good job trying to convince people you're the "liberators"

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1660641155384594434

Dude, your imaginary boyfriend is waging a genocidal campaign of conquest. No amount of collateral damage is going to convince anyone that the victims are the bad guys here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

For too long RT has refused to report on Russian shelling of children in the Belgorod People’s Republic. It’s clear Ukraine will have to intervene

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660665662250041347?s=20

[Storr]

Budanov memes will never not be funny (this is an old photo, but relevant to today's completely grassroots rebellion in 'Bihorod' region):

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1660632105859121152?s=20

Other memes related to today's events:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1660682640435888130?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1660696405692825621?s=20

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1660651085709688836?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1660699895420862483?s=12

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1660699895420862483?s=12

I assume it's not a coincidence that the where area this is happening could be considered historically Ukrainian, especially using the Kremlin's own tortured logic.

A 1914 language map by the Imperial Russian Geographical Society, showing Grayvoron and Belgorod in the area shaded green for "Little Russian" (Ukrainian):

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1660713969672134664

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1660717261672333312?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Enough of this escalating and senseless killing already, why can’t Russia just give up Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, for peace?