Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

In all seriousness, the restrictions NATO has put on Ukraine regarding strikes on Russian territory have removed important options that could have benefited Ukraine significantly. Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations, but also let them go around the fortifications in Northeast Ukraine and collapse Russian lines in all of Northern Luhansk.

There would have been practically no resistance, as we've seen so far. Being forced to fight Russia only in Ukraine is trying to win with one hand tied behind their backs. No other country would fight like this. So the west should think about that when/if they have doubts about the rate of progress.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1659763384248676353

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Enough of this escalating and senseless killing already, why can’t Russia just give up Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, for peace?

I know this is a joke post with a serious point, but uh...this is the share of ethnic Ukrainians in these three oblasts:
Belgorod: 1.0%
Kursk: 1.3%
Bryansk: 1.1%

If Ukraine actually pushed for taking these areas, it might end up similar to the taking of Elsass-Lothringen by Germany.

[Storr]

It's almost as if leaders that start and fail to win wars end up becoming unpopular:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1660723818304884736?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

In all seriousness, the restrictions NATO has put on Ukraine regarding strikes on Russian territory have removed important options that could have benefited Ukraine significantly. Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations, but also let them go around the fortifications in Northeast Ukraine and collapse Russian lines in all of Northern Luhansk.

There would have been practically no resistance, as we've seen so far. Being forced to fight Russia only in Ukraine is trying to win with one hand tied behind their backs. No other country would fight like this. So the west should think about that when/if they have doubts about the rate of progress.

Tbf Russia would undoubtedly use nukes if Ukraine entered Belgorod

[Storr]

"air defense takes down a Russian helicopter near New York" is a real headline:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1660729994912333827?s=20

[There is a small town named New York in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. It first appeared on maps in 1846, but the origin of the name isn't known. Presumably someone locally prominent enough to name a settlement had a connection of some sort with the United States.]

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

"air defense takes down a Russian helicopter near New York" is a real headline:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1660729994912333827?s=20
[There is a small town named New York in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. It first appeared on maps in 1846, but the origin of the name isn't known. Presumably someone locally prominent enough to name a settlement had a connection of some sort with the United States.]

I can’t remember the name, but isn’t there some village in the Donbas named after a random Welsh guy?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It's almost as if leaders that start and fail to win wars end up becoming unpopular:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1660723818304884736?s=20

I’m still predicting Putin ‘wins’ his next election in a shocking 98 point upset.

[Lord Halifax]

I can’t remember the name, but isn’t there some village in the Donbas named after a random Welsh guy?

Donetsk itself was originally named Yuzovka (Hughesovka) after its founder Welsh businessman John James Hughes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Enough of this escalating and senseless killing already, why can’t Russia just give up Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, for peace?

I know this is a joke post with a serious point, but uh...this is the share of ethnic Ukrainians in these three oblasts:
Belgorod: 1.0%
Kursk: 1.3%
Bryansk: 1.1%

If Ukraine actually pushed for taking these areas, it might end up similar to the taking of Elsass-Lothringen by Germany.

This is only due to Russian oppression of Ukrainian speakers in those areas. It’s clear Ukraine must send in a peace keeping force to calm the situation down

[Woody]

Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations..

So you're suggesting hostage taking then? Because that's what terrorists do.

"Man, why won't NATO let me use their stuff to conquer Russian cities and use their citizens as bargain?"

[Woody]

The DRG group in Belgorod Oblast was caught committing a war crime today. They shot at a civilian car and seized it. Good job trying to convince people you're the "liberators"

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1660641155384594434

Dude, your imaginary boyfriend is waging a genocidal campaign of conquest. No amount of collateral damage is going to convince anyone that the victims are the bad guys here.

That Lada driver is one of the bad guys?

[Woody]

Speaking of American equipment. The DRG group left behind a U.S. MaxxPro today when retreating from one of the border villages.

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1660733397281697794

[Storr]

If true, things really are getting weird:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660752615548788738?s=20

[ꙮ]

Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations..

So you're suggesting hostage taking then? Because that's what terrorists do.

"Man, why won't NATO let me use their stuff to conquer Russian cities and use their citizens as bargain?"

This argument doesn't make any sense. It is not "terrorism" or "hostage taking" for a nation to attack the aggressor which has started a war with it. Was it wrong for the Allies to invade Germany and Italy in WWII? For all the deserved criticism of the Soviet Union, has anyone ever attacked them for going beyond their pre-Barbarossa borders in their counter-offensives against Germany? Was it wrong for the United States to take the fight to Japan at Okinawa, Iwo Jima, and the Marianas? Was it wrong for the Continental Army to invade British Canada in 1775? The answer is an obvious no, which is why no state in history has ever operated on such rules. When has a nation been expected to fight against an aggressor only on its own territory?

[Mopsus]

I didn’t know Bobby subscribed to the Trudeau “If you kill your enemies, they win” Doctrine. I wonder why he’s never elucidated that before? Curious.

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of the provenance of the mysterious Russian dissident formations taking over a settlement in Belgorod Oblast, and to what extent this may or may not impact the future trajectory of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine, it certainly has not been a good week for Putin's War against Ukraine.

Phillips OBrien on his 5/21/23 substack post #29 poses the question: "Was this the Week when Ukraine Won the War?"

Once again, the line barely moved this week, but it might have been the most momentous week of the war since February 24, 2022. After months of delays, obfuscations and, quite possibly, deliberate distortions, the US administration okayed plans for Ukrainians to be trained on F-16s and, it seems, for such aircraft to be transferred to Ukraine in the near future. For the Ukrainians this has been a moment of great celebration, as their General Staff made clear today.

Now, why can this be said that this is the week that Ukraine won the war? Arguably because before this week, what we knew was that Russia had lost it, but we had no idea what shape Ukrainian victory would take.

Indeed up until this week, it was arguable that a number of people in high political positions in major NATO powers would have been content to end the war with a deal that transferred a large amount of Ukraine to Russia (most obviously Crimea) and stymied any move of Ukraine for NATO membership. However, this week it might be said that, both for the US and perhaps internationally, people are coming to understand that Ukraine should be allowed to (and helped to) win the war on its own terms. This is most famously with the F-16 decision, but could also be seen in the international recognition that is being given to President Zelensky.

Even as late as early last week, the mood music was negative about Ukraine and F-16s, and then boom, in a stunning day, the Biden Administration changed tune and yesterday publicly endorsed the training of Ukrainians to fly the F-16s and, it seems, the transfer of the aircraft as well (whether from US stocks or European allies remains unclear).

Something that would also have been inconceivable on Feb 24, 2022 happened this week. President Zelensky played a prominent role in two high-level international gatherings. First, he was invited to address the Arab League.

This first invite was quite unexpected, as Russia has put a great deal of effort into cultivating Arab states. Zelensky not only showed up, however, he also made an open criticism of some of his hosts when he stated afterwards that certain states were turning a blind eye to Russian atrocities.

After the Arab League, Zelensky was far from done, he flew on to Tokyo for the G-7 meeting, where we was treated as a honored guest and partner. The G-7 is the economic and military backbone of Ukraine’s support (The USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada). That they went out of their way to invite him to this meeting. The official communique issued by the G-7 leaders put the issue of Ukraine first and promised to keep supporting Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes…’

What does Zelensky’s visits to these two very different international summits mean—that a wide range of the world’s leaderships, from very different backgrounds, have concluded that Ukraine is going to come out of this war as a strong, independent nation—one that is worth engaging with now. In other words, Ukraine is going to win this war.

Anyways tons more here folks....

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-29?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email

[NOVA Green]

Good time for a Ukrainian or Crimean Partisan sabotage cell to take out some High Value Targets...

Who knows most likely they have already come and gone, but still folks will be back.

https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1660717726762160128?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile my Twitter Buddy Benjamin, whom I first started following during the waning days of the US involvement in Afghanistan and loving his Geo-Location work, has apparently now geolocated the exact positions of the Russian dissident forces who just recently liberated a village in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1660697450187747329?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gone from “Kyiv will fall in 3 days” to “Belgorod holds!” In little over a year. Quite the special military operation eh? Lol

[NOVA Green]

Gotta give some shots out to my favorite Aussie poster on the forum (Other than Meclazine naturally)...

Mick Ryan just dumped an entire (23) page Tweet starts with his opinions regarding involving the significance of recent Western Allies of Ukraine donating huge amounts of military hardware to Ukraine, but also credits Leadership as a key "X-Factor" in terms of the overall Ukrainian survival factor, but then even dips down the level of training and significance of "Tactical Leaders", in the future upcoming assaults to free every inch of Russian Occupied Ukraine.

In order to see all (23) Tweets you will likely need to go directly to the Twitter thread in question.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1660788055274557441?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gotta give some shots out to my favorite Aussie poster on the forum (Other than Meclazine naturally)...

Mick Ryan just dumped an entire (23) page Tweet starts with his opinions regarding involving the significance of recent Western Allies of Ukraine donating huge amounts of military hardware to Ukraine, but also credits Leadership as a key "X-Factor" in terms of the overall Ukrainian survival factor, but then even dips down the level of training and significance of "Tactical Leaders", in the future upcoming assaults to free every inch of Russian Occupied Ukraine.

In order to see all (23) Tweets you will likely need to go directly to the Twitter thread in question.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1660788055274557441?s=20

This tracks with what I would expect. Great to see this nonetheless.
Thanks for sharing.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, Live from Subvert City, Media Zone reports live from Radio Free Europe and the Russian Underground in Exile:

Article titled: "The fight for Glotovo. What is known about the Belgorod raid of Russians fighting on the side of Ukraine".

No Paywall required, but please feel free to donate for the Russian journalists in exile...

On the morning of May 22, a group of armed men in infantry fighting vehicles and tanks entered Russia through the Graivoron checkpoint on the border of the Belgorod Region. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, units fighting on the side of Ukraine, in which Russians are members. According to the regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, eight civilians were injured in the attack. Mediazona reveals what is known about the raid and its aftermath.

Shortly before 10:00 am , a video message from its fighters appeared on the telegram channel of the Freedom of Russia Legion, a volunteer unit where Russians who fight on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine serve . The man speaking on camera denounced Putin and urged Russians to be brave. "Don't be afraid, because we're coming home! Russia will be free!” he promised. An hour later, the telegram channel called on residents of the border regions to stay at home and not resist.

At the same time, a video appeared on the telegram channel of the Russian Volunteer Corps with fighters against the background of a sign to enter the village of Bezlyudovka in the Shebekinsky district of the Belgorod region. The off-screen voice claimed that the fighters of the corps had crossed the Russian border.

According to the pro-Russian telegram channel Rybar, two tanks, one armored personnel carrier and nine armored vehicles entered Russia from the Grayvoron checkpoint. The Gray Zone telegram channel associated with PMC Wagner claimed that the infantry fighters of the sabotage group were moving in a KrAZ truck and American infantry fighting vehicles, HMMWV and Cougar .

Around 17:00 , Shot reported that about 80 Ukrainian saboteurs in two tanks and two armored personnel carriers were again in the area of ​​​​the village of Kozinka, from where they were squeezed out by Russian security forces - probably at this time the invasion group began to retreat back to the territory of Ukraine. Baza reported that at the same time fighting was going on in Glotovo, where the shootout was taking place in a residential area, the inhabitants of which had to hide in the basements of buildings.

At 18:00, Governor Gladkov announced the introduction of a counter-terrorist operation regime in the Belgorod Region, which includes control over telephone and other conversations, restricting access to certain territories, seizing vehicles and other restrictive measures. He later reportedthat most of the residents of the border villages left their territory - without specifying whether they were evacuated or left on their own.

https://zona.media/article/2023/05/22/raid

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Russians against the War appear to be continuing a campaign of tossing Molotov Cocktails into Russian Military Recruitment Offices:

In the north-east of Moscow, a building caught fire, in which the military registration and enlistment office of the Preobrazhensky district is located. This was reported to "Evening Moscow" in emergency services.

All people were evacuated from the building at 14 Kolodezny Lane. According to TASS , 15 rescue crews are involved in putting out the fire on the sixth floor.

RBC writes that the military registration and enlistment office is located from the first to the third floors. In other areas of the building there are offices of commercial companies, a spa, a cafe and a housing inspection for the Eastern Administrative District.

The Oktyabrsky District Court of Murmansk sent a 19-year-old boy to a pre-trial detention center accused of setting fire to a regional military registration and enlistment office. This was reported on the website of the court.

The young man is charged with committing a terrorist act (Part 1 of Article 205 of the Criminal Code). According to investigators, on the night of May 14, he set fire to the basement of the building of the regional military registration and enlistment office. After that, he tried to escape, but he was detained by the police.

Baza,  without indicating the source  , reported that the young man's name was Shamil Aliev-Gasanov. He, according to the Telegram channel, broke the glass on the basement floor of the building, filled the window frame with an incendiary mixture and set it on fire. The fire burned down furniture and appliances in the welfare office.

During interrogation by the security forces, writes Baza, Aliyev-Hasanov admitted his guilt and said that he committed arson because of death threats and blackmail of an anonymous person from the Internet, and not because of anti-war beliefs. The press release of the court says that after the arson, the young man threw away the canister and the lighter, which "took measures to destroy the evidence of the crime."

Mikhail Balabanov, accused of plotting to set fire to the military enlistment office in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Territory, is being transferred from the pre-trial detention center to a hospital for a psychiatric examination. This is reported by the project "Solidarity Zone".

The 20-year-old boy was detained on December 19. According to investigators, Balabanov colluded with a Ukrainian intelligence officer and decided to set fire to the military registration and enlistment office. As the father of the accused told the ASTRA telegram channel , the security forces believe that his son communicated with the special services through the “I want to live” bot. During a search in his rented apartment, incendiary mixtures were allegedly found.

Arrest was chosen as a preventive measure for the young man. During his testimony, Balabanov said: “After the start of the war in Ukraine, I experienced deep feelings of discomfort, anger, hatred for the Russian leadership, regret and sympathy for the citizens of Ukraine, in my opinion, Russia attacked Ukraine.”

In Balashikha near Moscow, five young men aged 15 to 20 were detained, whom the security forces suspect of trying to set fire to equipment in a military unit. This is reported by RBC , Astra and Baza sources in law enforcement agencies.

According to the interlocutors of the publications, in March, the detainees “created a dangerous group”, tried to dig under military unit No. 13816 and bring “flammable substance” there.

Baza writes that 19-year-old Anton Khripko and 20-year-old Sergey Korkhov led the group. It also included 20-year-old Ilya Korkach and Ivan Silin, as well as a 15-year-old youth whose real name is unknown. They were charged with organizing and participating in a terrorist community (Article 205.4 of the Criminal Code).

https://zona.media/theme/gorit

[Woody]

Bakhmut is now Artemovsk again (It's Soviet and pre-2016 name):

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1660966197595193344?cxt=HHwWgIC--Zv994wu...