Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Politico claims the Biden admin agrees to support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots to use jets, including the F-16, in Europe: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/19/fighter-jets-ukraine-biden-00097846

Potential donors of F-16 down the line, according to the source, include Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands; nothing has been decided yet.

The F-16 is not the ideal platform by a long shot, but its selling point is that it will be the most available. The nature of US support here is going to be very important - training capacity in some European air forces may be very limited at the moment according to certain analyses I've read. Politico's source describe the training initiative as taking [only? at least?] months.

Better late than never.

Portugal joins:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1659756077637042183?s=20

Italy says it might join the fighter coalition. Italy used to fly F-16s, but stopped using and returned them in 2012 after their 10 year lease from the US ended.

Poland has already said it cannot supply its F-16s to Ukraine because it has too few. I'm guessing Ukraine will end up with at least some of Norway's F-16s, which were retired last year after the country received its F-35s. The Defense Minister said yesterday that handing them to Ukraine was "not on the agenda now", but we've seen how quickly agendas can change in this war.

Norway received 72 F-16A/B which were built from 1980-84, and two F-16B-15OCU in 1989 which were replacements for planes lost in crashes.  

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1660026492414308358?s=20

Poland joins fighter jet coalition, will help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s:

That makes the US, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, and Poland members of the coalition.

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1661057933495664640?s=20

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The governor of Belgorod Oblast has announced the end of the "counter-terrorist" operation. The remaining AFU DRGs who survived has retreated from the Oblast.

Now that it is over, what exactly was achieved here again?

...to show the world that Russia has left own territory undefended while most of its troops are in Ukraine

AFU could just drive into Russia and seize Belgorod if US and Europe gives the OK.

But that would be breaking he rulez! Russia gets to bomb you, you don’t get to bomb Russia. Fighting back if for terrorists.
What’s a whirlwind?

[Storr]

It's telling how much the Kremlin focuses on the past. There is no vision for the future. Their propaganda never talks about the future, only about returning to some vague glorious past. Are they returning to the Soviet era or Imperial Russia? It's never made clear presumably because Putin's Russia is so ideologically bankrupt it doesn't really matter. At least the Soviet Union talked about a utopian classless future. Even if that utopia was never going to actually happen, at least there was some vision of the future for the country.

Rest of tweet: "United States did not exist either. Italy did not exist. Germany... Most European countries of today did not exist then."

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1661052565516357633?s=20

lmao:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1661066131396870160?s=20

[Torrain]

lmao:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1661066131396870160?s=20

Can’t wait for Special Military Operation VII: Mission to Moscow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's telling how much the Kremlin focuses on the past. There is no vision for the future. Their propaganda never talks about the future, only about returning to some vague glorious past. Are they returning to the Soviet era or Imperial Russia? It's never made clear presumably because Putin's Russia is so ideologically bankrupt it doesn't really matter. At least the Soviet Union talked about a utopian classless future. Even if that utopia was never going to actually happen, at least there was some vision of the future for the country.

Rest of tweet: "United States did not exist either. Italy did not exist. Germany... Most European countries of today did not exist then."

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1661052565516357633?s=20

lmao:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1661066131396870160?s=20

If you go back far enough in time no countries existed. Hence we must abolish all borders.

[Virginiá]

I’m normally one to get annoyed about fear mongering that Putin using nukes but I think you guys are seriously downplaying that likelihood of Putin launching nukes if Ukraine actually invaded Belogord. Retaking Ukrainian land Russia has stolen over the past 9 years in one thing, taking actual Russian land (that could also put Moscow itself in a missile strike range) is a completely different ballgame

To the extent that it matters, Russian doctrine still (afaik) states that nuclear weapons can be used when the Russian state's existence is in question. Also, in the case of Ukraine occupying border areas, there is also a question of exactly what the nuke(s) would hope to accomplish. Putin basically has 3 options - a demonstration/warning nuclear detonation to try and scare Ukraine/the west off, tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield, which aren't terribly useful unless used against large massed enemy formations or military bases, or use against a city in what is essentially massive terror bombing (or a decapitation strike against UA leadership).

#1 is probably the best option as the west would probably find some fault with Ukraine for going after Russia proper when these risks were known. #2 doesn't accomplish much for Russia and #3 would garner a swift backlash against Russia once the death toll and destruction hits world news.

Russia still arguably has more to lose by using nuclear weapons than it has to gain. The best outcome here is that despite maybe a full blown embargo and China putting more distance between them and Russia, Ukrainian forays into Russia and the use of nukes scares NATO into scaling back military aid.

This is moot, though, IMO. If Ukraine planned to actually try and contest significant Russian territory, they would have sent in far more than what is basically a glorified troll battalion. In my case, I was just arguing the absurdity of Woody acting like an aggressor country is just immune from attack in a war they started. And if nuclear weapons weren't a thing yet, there would likely be significant operations against Russia proper throughout the war.

[GoTfan]

Hindsight is 2020 in half a year:

>Ukraine will hold Bakhmut
>Kreminna will fall
>Svatove will fall
>Transnistria will fall
>Lukashenko and Kadyrov would die
>Ukrainians had crossed the Dniepr
>The Bakhmut flanks would collapse
>Ukrainians would take Belgorod

You're the sort of person who would have supported Halifax during the War Cabinet Crisis.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1661122966334197760?s=12
😗

[NOVA Green]

So although it does appear that there are still active Russian dissidents involved in military operations in Belgorod Oblast, despite Russian claims to the contrary, there are also other activities occurring, including some audible explosions within the Provincial Capital and the City of Belgorod, just within the past few hours.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1661118732721176579?s=20

Sure, it's not a total "shock and awe" moment, but regardless the unexpected nature of this operation, which was most likely officially blessed by Ukrainian Intelligence services, still helps create a psychological impact among not only the Russian Military and surrogate militias, but additionally among the broader Russian population, which thus far appears to at least be passive supporters of the "special operation".

The creation of cracks within the elites of the one party state called Putin's "United Russia" Party, will only be exacerbated by perspectives which challenge the limited range of paradigms allowed and presented by what is effectively not only an authoritarian state, but increasingly a totalitarian state, when it comes to the treatment of its own citizens.

Now is the time for the "Free World" to actively engage with various former Soviet Republics still loosely allied with Russia.

Time to play hardball on the import-export regime which allows imports of "dual technology", which Russia is using to help maintain a monthly production range of advanced missiles through places like "The Stans", and the Caucus states.

I digress, but yet it is clear that Russia is apparently unable to defend their own internationally recognized territorial borders, let alone all of the places they have claimed have voted to join Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I wonder if this operation in Belogord is Ukraine kinda replaying the playbook from last year when they openly proclaimed the counterattack on Kherson to get Russia to move resources and then did the Kharkiv operation. Letting this Free Russia group raid into Belogord to make Russia move resources and counterattack where they are thin

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

It's almost as if leaders that start and fail to win wars end up becoming unpopular:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1660723818304884736?s=20

In the mid-2010s, there was a website called мой-президент.рф, where a truly independent Internet vote was held on who the people of Russia would like to see as president. Putin scored a maximum of two percent. Then this site was taken over by the Putinists and now they only fap on Putin there, although the candidates who confidently won were also Russian nationalists.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1661090509199405057?s=12
Now Kursk 👀

Commandos of the International Legion passed through the Belgorod region and entered the Kursk region —>

—> Lieutenant General Woody Konashenkow, "The Belgorod region has been completely cleared from the Nazis by our brave soldiers!"

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

lmao:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1661066131396870160?s=20

Can’t wait for Special Military Operation VII: Mission to Moscow.

There are literally a couple of regions from the Kursk region to Moscow.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1661090509199405057?s=12
Now Kursk 👀

Commandos of the International Legion passed through the Belgorod region and entered the Kursk region —>

—> Lieutenant General Woody Konashenkow, "The Belgorod region has been completely cleared from the Nazis by our brave soldiers!"

https://twitter.com/DienstJens/status/1661102419005022215?s=20

Based.

[jaichind]

https://www.valeursactuelles.com/clubvaleurs/monde/les-ravages-de-la-guerre-dattrition

“However, from 40 to 60% of Ukrainian military personnel who were trained in France in 2022 no longer get in touch. We think that most are silent because they have already died in…

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1661361355193032705?s=12
Shocker Russia wasn’t honest about something

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1661417394642747417?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1661362777963786241?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1661362782225268737?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1661341973825896455
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1661429970441326592?cxt=HHwWgMC-9azwyo4u...

[President Johnson]

Russia's prime minister was hosted in Beijing today. At this point, the West as a collective should seriously discuss sanctions against China. It's pretty clear the CCP supports Putin's imperialism and war crimes.

https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1661248801838071808

[Hindsight was 2020]

So comrade Bakhmut Bod wants to mock me for posting about legit media speculation on Lukashenko‘s health after his mysterious disappearance after the parade or on Kadyrov when he disappeared and then reappeared looking bizarrely bloated and sick but will post from Russian twitter that they killed/seriously injured Zaluzhnyi a few weeks back even after there is video of Zaluzhnyi at a press conference a few days ago looking same as always

[Woody]

So comrade Bakhmut Bod wants to mock me for posting about legit media speculation on Lukashenko‘s health after his mysterious disappearance after the parade or on Kadyrov when he disappeared and then reappeared looking bizarrely bloated and sick but will post from Russian twitter that they killed/seriously injured Zaluzhnyi a few weeks back even after there is video of Zaluzhnyi at a press conference a few days ago looking same as always

source now

[Hindsight was 2020]

Btw not to shock anyone but the Zaluzhny is dead conspiracy our resident Putin simps were pushing suffered a slight setback with Zaluzhny doing two video link appearances the past two days for a International Conference and then addressing a graduating class in Odessa
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qXCkzVA0hBY
https://politros.com/24066061-glavkom_vsu_zaluzhnii_vpervie_poyavilsya_v_teleefire_posle_soobschenii_o_tyazhelom_ranenii

I literally posted it here 6 pages ago lol 🙄

[Woody]

Btw not to shock anyone but the Zaluzhny is dead conspiracy our resident Putin simps were pushing suffered a slight setback with Zaluzhny doing two video link appearances the past two days for a International Conference and then addressing a graduating class in Odessa
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qXCkzVA0hBY
https://politros.com/24066061-glavkom_vsu_zaluzhnii_vpervie_poyavilsya_v_teleefire_posle_soobschenii_o_tyazhelom_ranenii

I literally posted it here 6 pages ago lol 🙄

I have seen that video before. He doesn't answer any questions to the guys on the other end. It could be pre-recorded. I'll believe it once he shows up looking well and healthy talking to somebody.

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Pre-recorded”? Wow this is embarrassing even for you