COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19 (user search)
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  COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19 (search mode)
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19  (Read 269106 times)
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #125 on: June 18, 2020, 09:37:11 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/18 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #126 on: June 18, 2020, 11:07:24 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2020, 11:12:25 PM by Arch »

If we're going to head for herd immunity anyway (or close to it), I am truly starting to think a strategy of "intentionally infect all the young and healthy people" would have been what was best for two reasons.  First (and most importantly), we would be choosing who gets it.  Based on the CDC's estimate of a 0.26% fatality rate and assuming 50% as the herd immunity threshold, a non-targeted herd immunity strategy would result in about 430K deaths.  However, their estimate is a 0.025% fatality rate in those under 50.  Hitting herd immunity with engineering the infections to be in the young would have only resulted in about 41K deaths.  Now, it probably would have been a little more because we wouldn't have been perfect in stopping older individuals from getting sick.

The second reason is that we could have gotten this whole crisis over with in a matter of a few weeks to maybe a month.  Things truly would have likely been 100% normal by Easter Sunday if we had gone down that path.

Florida is already running out of ICU beds, and this is just the start of a spike for them. When hospitals get overwhelmed, the mortality rate goes up with it.

This is without the effects of deliberate infection, which would be apocalyptic. We don't even know what the long term effects of this virus could be (see Shingles).

I know that you, and really all of us, would like for things to go back to normal, but it's simply not feasible as things are.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #127 on: June 19, 2020, 02:27:23 PM »

Also, what New York (among other places) shows is that 60%-70% don't have to be infected. The virus can be contained, at minuscule levels, until a vaccine or treatment is available.

We don’t actually know that.  At this point, it’s probably a question of whether a vaccine is available before a second wave comes.  But at least we do have treatments now!

Second wave?  We're still in the first wave.

I do think it’s reasonable to say that the “first wave” is essentially over in New York.

In New York, sure, but look at what the abrupt re-openings have done to FL, TX, etc.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #128 on: June 19, 2020, 02:35:59 PM »

Also, what New York (among other places) shows is that 60%-70% don't have to be infected. The virus can be contained, at minuscule levels, until a vaccine or treatment is available.

We don’t actually know that.  At this point, it’s probably a question of whether a vaccine is available before a second wave comes.  But at least we do have treatments now!

Second wave?  We're still in the first wave.

I do think it’s reasonable to say that the “first wave” is essentially over in New York.

In New York, sure, but look at what the abrupt re-openings have done to FL, TX, etc.

The discussion you are quoting was specifically about NY.

And my comment is directly related to the discussion on the effects of the first wave vs. the second wave.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #129 on: June 19, 2020, 05:53:39 PM »



My goodness... Sad
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #130 on: June 19, 2020, 08:37:45 PM »

Here's an idea. Since everyone wants to make stuff mandatory, how about if instead of a "stay at home" order, we have a "stay outside" order.

Since the virus doesn't spread as well outside, why don't we all stay outside as much as poss?

!?? Are you just coming with stuff up as you go or what?
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #131 on: June 19, 2020, 08:50:04 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #132 on: June 20, 2020, 08:45:22 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #133 on: June 21, 2020, 10:05:53 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #134 on: June 21, 2020, 10:50:57 PM »

I hope to God that they don't shut everything down again or I'm gonna be pissed.

Let those of us who don't give a sh**t take our chances. Possibly getting covid comes with the territory and we all know it.

The people who are so worried should just stay in their house. The Stasi aren't going to come to your house and force you to go to Red Lobster, damn.
Honestly there should be a deliberate infection program for people like you. If you want, you will  be deliberately infected but will be placed under house arrest (to prevent spread) as long as you test positive. Afterwards, you are free to do whatever you want no matter how many cases there are. The caveat is that you will be denied any medical assistance if needed. You will be in your home no matter how sick you get.

I'd be good with that tbh. I have weak lungs so I'm somebody who could probably be really in danger from covid but it's not like anybody cares. I can't allow myself to be stagnant.

The American 24/7 Hustle culture has really hit peak insanity.

I don't like putting s**t on hold either, but damn, saying you'd rather die than lose a couple of months of work is beyond me...

It's baffling to me too.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #135 on: June 22, 2020, 11:16:33 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21 (Yesterday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)
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« Reply #136 on: June 23, 2020, 04:59:44 PM »

It looks like today will be the first time we hit or come very close to hitting +40,000 cases in one day. Deaths are starting to ramp up again too.
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« Reply #137 on: June 23, 2020, 08:13:00 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:
  • Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
  • Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:
  • Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
  • Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:
  • Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
  • Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:
  • Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:
  • Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
  • Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:
  • Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
  • Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #138 on: June 24, 2020, 09:38:23 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 04:35:01 PM by Arch »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
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« Reply #139 on: June 25, 2020, 11:01:34 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2020, 01:35:16 AM by Arch »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ
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« Reply #140 on: June 25, 2020, 11:04:35 PM »

Holy sh*t. This is getting really bad. Forumlurker has been proven right again on the death rate, as many experts expected with cases continuing to spike.

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« Reply #141 on: June 26, 2020, 01:35:42 AM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

6/24 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)

If you are using worldometers as a source, I’m not sure how you are getting 2,499 deaths today.  Worldometers counted 649 deaths today, and then allocated 1,849 probable earlier deaths in New Jersey onto days in the past based on proportionate past death counts.  The actual number of new deaths represents a week-over-week decrease of 14%.

Yes, amended accordingly. The case rate is still staggering.
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« Reply #142 on: June 26, 2020, 04:36:41 PM »

It looks like we're set for another record today. Sad
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« Reply #143 on: June 26, 2020, 07:59:28 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
  • Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
  • Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25
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« Reply #144 on: June 27, 2020, 04:31:45 PM »

I read a post/article on Iran's COVID-19 response that seems relevant.  Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now (rising cases, lower average age of of cases, but not yet seeing a corresponding rise in deaths).  Deaths didn't spike initially but did 3-4 weeks later after the younger people passed the virus onto other subgroups (elderly, etc.) more likely to die from the virus.

This is not a second wave. This is a revival of the first wave, instigated by bad policy and worse community practices.
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« Reply #145 on: June 27, 2020, 04:40:19 PM »

I read a post/article on Iran's COVID-19 response that seems relevant.  Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now (rising cases, lower average age of of cases, but not yet seeing a corresponding rise in deaths).  Deaths didn't spike initially but did 3-4 weeks later after the younger people passed the virus onto other subgroups (elderly, etc.) more likely to die from the virus.

This is not a second wave. This is a revival of the first wave, instigated by bad policy and worse community practices.

I wasn't claiming that the US is experiencing a second wave.  I agree we are still in the first wave.  I was referencing Iran's second wave.

"Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now." The "what" is ambiguous, and lends itself to be interpreted as a pronominal equivalent of "second wave."

Thanks for the clarification.
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« Reply #146 on: June 27, 2020, 05:23:40 PM »

I read a post/article on Iran's COVID-19 response that seems relevant.  Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now (rising cases, lower average age of of cases, but not yet seeing a corresponding rise in deaths).  Deaths didn't spike initially but did 3-4 weeks later after the younger people passed the virus onto other subgroups (elderly, etc.) more likely to die from the virus.

This is not a second wave. This is a revival of the first wave, instigated by bad policy and worse community practices.

I wasn't claiming that the US is experiencing a second wave.  I agree we are still in the first wave.  I was referencing Iran's second wave.

"Iran experienced a second wave similar to what we are experiencing now." The "what" is ambiguous, and lends itself to be interpreted as a pronominal equivalent of "second wave."

Thanks for the clarification.

I think it's all semantics anyway. Cases are never going to go to 0, so it's subjective when the first wave has ended.

For a wave to end, the numbers have to plateau at a low non-zero number for a while, and then start a new curve. The U.S. never managed to do that to begin with.
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« Reply #147 on: June 27, 2020, 06:59:59 PM »

For a wave to end, the numbers have to plateau at a low non-zero number for a while, and then start a new curve. The U.S. never managed to do that to begin with.

Still subjective though. What's low? What's a plateau? It's not a formal term (wave) as far as I'm aware.

The EU is a good example of a wave that's ended. The subjectivity is relative to the peak, for sure. In a normalized curve, I would define a low at <+3 SDs from the peak.

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« Reply #148 on: June 27, 2020, 08:36:48 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:
  • Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
  • Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
  • Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27 (Today):
  • Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #149 on: June 28, 2020, 08:52:39 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:
  • Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
  • Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:
  • Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
  • Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:
  • Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
  • Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:
  • Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
  • Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:
  • Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
  • Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:
  • Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
  • Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:
  • Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
  • Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:
  • Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:
  • Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
  • Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:
  • Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
  • Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:
  • Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
  • Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
  • Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
  • Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
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