MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I have to say, I have a lot of trepidation about this. Slotkin defending Manchin and Sinema gives me a lot of pause.

What do you mean? She hasn’t voted like them in the house.

She has publicly said stuff like it in the past.

As you said, Slotkin hasn't really voted like a Manchin or a Sinema, so I'm not opposed to her like I was Lamb. I'm not thrilled about her candidacy and would prefer another candidate, but if I were in Michigan I'd vote for her. Kind of that odd space with Spanberger and the others.

Slotkin is literally more moderate than Lamb is.

[Morning in Atlas]

After looking into it a bit more, it appears that Slotkin was open to using budget reconciliation to codify Roe, so if I had to guess she'd be anti-filibuster. Definitely makes me breathe a lot easier.

I have to say, I have a lot of trepidation about this. Slotkin defending Manchin and Sinema gives me a lot of pause.

What do you mean? She hasn’t voted like them in the house.

She has publicly said stuff like it in the past.

As you said, Slotkin hasn't really voted like a Manchin or a Sinema, so I'm not opposed to her like I was Lamb. I'm not thrilled about her candidacy and would prefer another candidate, but if I were in Michigan I'd vote for her. Kind of that odd space with Spanberger and the others.

Slotkin is literally more moderate than Lamb is.

I'm also of the school of thought that Lamb's "liberal shift" was mainly a ploy to give himself an advantage for his Senate run. I think the guy's a snake who will say whatever it is keeps him in power, while Slotkin is more of a genuine, principled moderate.

[MargieCat]

It's official!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll

[wbrocks67]

Benson still feels like the heir apparent for GOV in 2026, so I really don't expect to her to run either.

[JMT]

It's official!

Endorsed. Aside from Gretchen Whitmer (who has already declined to run), Slotkin is probably the best candidate Democrats could run here. I expect she’ll clear the Democratic primary field.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer declined to run so she can keep the state legislature D the reason why it's crucial we have a D state legislature we are making gains in PA, WI is the only odd ball state that has a solid R legislature but they won't get a veto proof


Kavanaugh personally Gerrymandering WI to enhance Johnson of winning but he is gone in 28 not in a Midterm but Prez yr

[Tekken_Guy]

The bench to replace Slotkin for Democrats is large
-Sam Singh
-Sarah Anthony
-Kara Hope
-Curtis Hertzler
-Andy Schor
-Angela Witwer
-Virg Bernero
-Rosemarie Aquilina (the Larry Nassar judge)

For Republicans I imagine it’s likely Barrett again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's large but Slotkin has the advantage

[Zedonathin2020]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are stronger in a Prez race than a Midterm with Biden back on the ballot, D's had to run away from Biden except Fetterman because he had Shapiro are running with Biden

It appeared after Docugate the D's have to run away but Biden is back with 3 Gas

[SnowLabrador]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

[Holmes]

It's hard to see how Republicans have a chance here after the 2022 results unless Slotkin has a big scandal.

[Tekken_Guy]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

Do you mean DeSantis won't win the primary, or he won't win Michigan in the general?

[Zedonathin2020]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

Do you mean DeSantis won't win the primary, or he won't win Michigan in the general?

I think they were referring to a recent poll from the state that has DeSantis leading Trump in the primaries.

[Tekken_Guy]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

Do you mean DeSantis won't win the primary, or he won't win Michigan in the general?

Won’t win MI in the general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

Do you mean DeSantis won't win the primary, or he won't win Michigan in the general?

Won’t win MI in the general.

Pence criticized DeSantis on funding on War in Ukraine, once Biden run ads against DeSantis taking blk history out of Blk schools he will falter as for the polls PPP and You Gov have Biden beating Trump and Desantis

I agree that we shouldn't give a blank check but that's not what poll say we must fund Ukraine

As I said on the TX thread blk men and white female vote more Conserv in Midterm that's why Brown is fine he is the incumbent and he has won every Eday and running with Biden in the ballot Blks and white female voted for Vance over Ryan in Cincinnati not in Cleveland and Columbus DeWine won Cincinnati.


They will vote more D in Cincinnati in a Prez cycle with Brown same in MI and WI where Johnson won narrowly RS should be miles ahead in Jax mayor but there are blk and female voters going D this Time

[Vosem]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Even if Trump narrowly loses Michigan, congressional Republicans normally run a bit ahead of him. The likeliest Republican candidate here, state Board of Ed member Nikki Snyder, won statewide by 3 points in 2016 even as Trump won by (rounds down to) 0; in 2020 John James ran about a point ahead of Trump.

I think a relatively normal Republican candidate here could win even in a narrow Democratic presidential victory, but the MIGOP has really struggled with nominations recently so that's far from guaranteed.

It's hard to see how Republicans have a chance here after the 2022 results unless Slotkin has a big scandal.

Eh. Michigan had a localized Blue Wave in 2022, much as New York and Florida had localized Red Waves; but nobody thinks NY will be D+6 in perpetuity. Republicans had multiple really poor statewide candidates and faced an abortion referendum (and every state that held one of those basically saw much-bluer results than anywhere else); in 2024 the only prominent statewide candidate will be the one in this race, and they won't be chosen by convention. I'd start it off at Leans D, just because of the MIGOP's disorganization, but it's perfectly winnable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be narrowD victory because unlike 2016 RS had a supermajority in WI, MI and PA D's have the state legislature in MI and H in PA and expected to gain more not lose control with Whitmer and Shapiro, the reason why Rs still control WI is that it still have R Gerrymandering not much R Gerrymandering in MN, MI and PA and IL

Biden is miles ahead of Trump whom is leading DeSantis 43/27 anyways the weakest nominee

RS think Gas prices is 7.00 it's 2.50 that's why CCM and Mark Kelly won it was 7.00 in CA, NV, AZ, HI and CO when it appeared to be a red wave in 22 but gas prices are cheap but it's still 7 percent inflation

RS need to get back the Govs in WI,MI and PA in 26 if they want the Prez but not with Trump

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"Talks moderate but votes basically just like Generic D" does sound like a pretty good fit for Michigan actually.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is a Vet that's why she will win

[Pollster]

Dems really going to avoid yet ANOTHER contentious primary, it seems. You love to see it.

It seems MI/WI/MN Dems actually learned a lesson from 2016.

It's actually pretty incredible how Trump's win and narrative of Rust Belt strength (real though drastically exaggerated by the media) led to these three states' + PA's Democratic parties building absolutely behemoth organizations and their Republican parties to learn all the wrong lessons and crater.

[oldtimer]

It's hard to see how Republicans have a chance here after the 2022 results unless Slotkin has a big scandal.

The only reason why I question it is because Republicans practically didn't put a statewide candidate in 2022, so republican turnout ought to have been lower than usual.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The bench to replace Slotkin for Democrats is large
-Sam Singh
-Sarah Anthony
-Kara Hope
-Curtis Hertzler
-Andy Schor
-Angela Witwer
-Virg Bernero
-Rosemarie Aquilina (the Larry Nassar judge)

For Republicans I imagine it’s likely Barrett again.

If I had to pick someone I think will replace Slotkin, it’s be Anthony. It’s a very weird look for Michigan Democrats to have sent no black members to congress while republicans have.

Even ignoring that, she’s very involved in Lansing and has served on various boards from charities to economic growth groups. Her only weakness is she has never faced a competitor election, but she still is a very solid candidate.