MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Zedonathin2020]

Curious about who else in this Senate Class will retire.

It's a pretty old Class, even by Senate standards. Here's all the Senators up in 2024 who are the same age as Stabenow (72) or older:

Liz Warren (73)
Mazie Hirono (75)
Joe Manchin (75)
Mitt Romney (75)
Tom Carper (75)
Angus King (78)
Ben Cardin (79)
Bernie Sanders (81)
Dianne Feinstein (89)

And none of then have announced that they're retiring, yet.

Class 3 alone is the reason why we have the Oldest Senate in history

The funny thing about Class 3 now is that there's only a single Senator in that class that's older than 76 -- Chuck Grassley, at 89.

Class 3 has more Senators between the ages of 66-76; Class 1 has more over-75s.

Holy crap I put the wrong class on there. This is not my smartest moment

[Virginiá]

Why would she run? She’s somewhere in democratic minority leadership and is basically 70. Slotkin and Stevens make sense, but Dingell? Why would she even want to give up her house seat? If you want to leave the house, wouldn’t retiring be a better option?

Vanity, more or less. Nothing to do with the party's long term prospects or the voters, I am sure.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1611066337417383938?s=46&t=f565ZxS7L...

If I'm the GOP I'm absolutely trying to figure out the best way to get Meijer through a primary, maybe by holding a convention?

[Suburbia]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1611066337417383938?s=46&t=f565ZxS7L...

If I'm the GOP I'm absolutely trying to figure out the best way to get Meijer through a primary, maybe by holding a convention?

If the MIGOP does that, then there will be a major revolt.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats have an incredibly strong bench in Michigan. They should have no problem keeping this seat.

[Not Me, Us]

John James is the only one I'm really worried about here, and he's far from a sure thing for both the primary and general. Michigan Dems have had a really strong past few years and that's done wonders for their bench at the expense of the Republicans. Lean D for now.

[Nyvin]

I don't see why Lisa McClain is expected to be a good candidate,  she's only run in a completely safe district in the Thumb area for two whole elections ever.   There's not much to distinguish her from any other candidate and most voters outside of the Thumb probably know nothing about her.

At least John James is kinda-sorta known statewide to some degree, or in the Detroit metro if nothing else.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If I had to say I think Slotkin is the front runner, for no reason other then she’s the first name that comes to mind.

Scholten would also be a very good pick

Lisa McClain is likely the most likely to win a Republican primary should she run

Not Bill Huizenga?

Huizenga is a mainstream, establishment conservative.

The primary voters will batter and fry him. They demand insanity like McClain can offer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Sen Slotkin, Sen Schiff and Sen GALLEGO, I hope Feinstein takes her cue  and retires

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1611223186019844096

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Feels like a good time for Stabenow to retire.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We also need that Feinstein to retire

[Spectator]

Slotkin probably beats John James but it makes you wonder what people like Nessel and Benson are calculating if they pass on this opportunity. Both of them can't be governor. I guess Benson could run for Attorney General in 2026 since she is a Harvard-educated lawyer, but that seems like almost a lateral step rather than climbing the ladder.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, Cook is calling this race Lean D to start: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/michigan-senate/open-michigan-senate-seat-starts-lean-democratic

Not sure when the rest of their ratings will come out.

I've had problems with Cook's ratings in the past (namely their refusal to ever move NJ Gov out of Safe D in 2021), but I think this is a fair starting point. A "bench" isn't everything, but Democrats clearly have the better one and besides Trump's very narrow victory, it has proven to be a Democratic-leaning state in recent years.

[wbrocks67]

Do Benson and Nessel have other higher aspirations? I would think one or either would make more sense waiting for 2026 Governor. That seems like a more natural step for them?

[Blair]

It actually makes sense to retire in 2024; the party has a strong bench, it’s a presidential year and the republicans don’t really have anyone good to run.

It also gives the democrats a chance to get the next generation in; it really doesn’t help to have nearly all the relatively safe senate seats filled with either no-name randoms or senators in their 70s.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Do Benson and Nessel have other higher aspirations? I would think one or either would make more sense waiting for 2026 Governor. That seems like a more natural step for them?

But they both can't be governor though, that's the thing.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1611388040479383553?s=46&t=CHVOAWsWhal...

[Pollster]

I don't see why Lisa McClain is expected to be a good candidate,  she's only run in a completely safe district in the Thumb area for two whole elections ever.   There's not much to distinguish her from any other candidate and most voters outside of the Thumb probably know nothing about her.

The thumb is heavily in the Detroit media market, which also contains Oakland and Macomb, Ann Arbor, and critical Livingston County which will be key in a GOP primary. Very possible she has higher name ID than we might realize from the outset (even if not at saturation levels of course).

[JMT]

I know she already ruled it out, but Gretchen Whitmer would undoubtedly be the best candidate here. I imagine she wants to keep serving as Governor to prepare for a potential White House bid / VP candidacy in 2028 (or 2024 if Biden doesn’t run), or maybe a cabinet position in the future.

That said, Slotkin would be a very good candidate and it seems like she may already be clearing the field to a degree. We’ll see, though. She would be giving up a competitive House seat, though, so I’m not sure if she’s my personal favorite. I’d rather have her defend her House seat and see someone like Haley Stevens run.

As for Republicans: they don’t have a great bench. Peter Meijer probably won’t win a Republican primary, and John James has already lost 2 senate races (but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran again). Otherwise, not sure who the GOP’s top candidate is.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I seriously hope Rashida Tlaib primaries out Stabenow

I, personally, would prefer Dongless Dana as a theoretical Stabenow successor. Both because she's a lesbian and because she can, you know, actually win statewide.

I am still Dongless Dana or bust.

[Virginiá]

Slotkin probably beats John James but it makes you wonder what people like Nessel and Benson are calculating if they pass on this opportunity. Both of them can't be governor. I guess Benson could run for Attorney General in 2026 since she is a Harvard-educated lawyer, but that seems like almost a lateral step rather than climbing the ladder.

Benson seems like the strongest gubernatorial candidate just based on her wins, but Nessel could move to SoS in that case to wait and run after Benson. It's also possible she won't run for anything else. She didn't have a political career before this.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1611388040479383553?s=46&t=CHVOAWsWhal...

When will they leave this woman alone lol! She has no interest!

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1611066337417383938?s=46&t=f565ZxS7L...
If I'm the GOP I'm absolutely trying to figure out the best way to get Meijer through a primary, maybe by holding a convention?

Three big hurdles for Meijer:

1. Meijer couldn't even win his own primary.

2. Why would conservative or populist voters (who normally vote Republican) vote for Meijer in the Senate election ?

3. Why in the Senate election Democrats would vote for Meijer than their own candidate, who can win easily given Michigan's blue leans ?

They definitely should hold a convention, to avoid the disaster of 2022 of practically not having a Governor Nominee at all.

[President Johnson]

Another prospect might be Shri Thanedar? I remembered him from the 2018 primary for governor, didn't realize he was a congressman now. Checks the diversity boxes and his a progressive, but not too far left.