MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Amash in

[Virginiá]

Another prospect might be Shri Thanedar? I remembered him from the 2018 primary for governor, didn't realize he was a congressman now. Checks the diversity boxes and his a progressive, but not too far left.

Honestly, while he isn't very loud, he is a scumbag whose animal testing company left a bunch of dogs to die when they closed a facility. He also apparently toyed with the idea of running as a Republican in 2018, which indicates that he ideologically flexible in favor of whatever gets him more power, at the very least:

Hemond, who is a prominent Michigan Democratic consultant, was joined by Dan McMaster, a prominent Republican consultant, as well as Brian Began, a former staffer for Michigan’s House Republican Caucus. At the meeting, they asked Thanedar what party he was thinking of running in.

To their surprise, Hemond said, Thanedar told them it didn’t matter.

“He came to us looking for advice about running for governor, and was obviously in the market for a consultant,” he said. “We asked him what party he wanted to run from and he said he didn’t care. He said whichever side we thought he had the best chance to win on. Which we thought was interesting.”

IMO an example of someone the party should shun and especially avoid elevating at all costs.

[President Johnson]

Another prospect might be Shri Thanedar? I remembered him from the 2018 primary for governor, didn't realize he was a congressman now. Checks the diversity boxes and his a progressive, but not too far left.

Also a scumbag whose animal testing company left a bunch of dogs to die when they closed a facility. He also apparently toyed with the idea of running as a Republican in 2018, which indicates that he ideologically flexible in favor of whatever gets him more power, at the very least:

Hemond, who is a prominent Michigan Democratic consultant, was joined by Dan McMaster, a prominent Republican consultant, as well as Brian Began, a former staffer for Michigan’s House Republican Caucus. At the meeting, they asked Thanedar what party he was thinking of running in.

To their surprise, Hemond said, Thanedar told them it didn’t matter.

“He came to us looking for advice about running for governor, and was obviously in the market for a consultant,” he said. “We asked him what party he wanted to run from and he said he didn’t care. He said whichever side we thought he had the best chance to win on. Which we thought was interesting.”

IMO an example of someone the party should shun and especially avoid elevating at all costs.

I didn't know that. But thanks for the input.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1611066337417383938?s=46&t=f565ZxS7L...
If I'm the GOP I'm absolutely trying to figure out the best way to get Meijer through a primary, maybe by holding a convention?

Three big hurdles for Meijer:

1. Meijer couldn't even win his own primary.

Well yeah, that's why you'd hold a convention

2. Why would conservative or populist voters (who normally vote Republican) vote for Meijer in the Senate election ?

To avoid Democratic control of the Senate? I think Republicans can figure out how to get their base voters out.

3. Why in the Senate election Democrats would vote for Meijer than their own candidate, who can win easily given Michigan's blue leans ?

Not many have to, but a few moderates could be convinced by some "check on Biden" style campaigning.

They definitely should hold a convention, to avoid the disaster of 2022 of practically not having a Governor Nominee at all.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1611066337417383938?s=46&t=f565ZxS7L...
If I'm the GOP I'm absolutely trying to figure out the best way to get Meijer through a primary, maybe by holding a convention?

Three big hurdles for Meijer:

1. Meijer couldn't even win his own primary.

Well yeah, that's why you'd hold a convention

2. Why would conservative or populist voters (who normally vote Republican) vote for Meijer in the Senate election ?

To avoid Democratic control of the Senate? I think Republicans can figure out how to get their base voters out.

3. Why in the Senate election Democrats would vote for Meijer than their own candidate, who can win easily given Michigan's blue leans ?

Not many have to, but a few moderates could be convinced by some "check on Biden" style campaigning.

They definitely should hold a convention, to avoid the disaster of 2022 of practically not having a Governor Nominee at all.

"To avoid Democratic control of the Senate? I think Republicans can figure out how to get their base voters out."

That didn't work out anywhere in crucial Senate races in these Midterms.

"Not many have to, but a few moderates could be convinced by some "check on Biden" style campaigning."

That also didn't work out anywhere in crucial Senate races in these Midterms.

Republicans hate him , Democrats don't need him, he has no party to support him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know she already ruled it out, but Gretchen Whitmer would undoubtedly be the best candidate here. I imagine she wants to keep serving as Governor to prepare for a potential White House bid / VP candidacy in 2028 (or 2024 if Biden doesn’t run), or maybe a cabinet position in the future.

That said, Slotkin would be a very good candidate and it seems like she may already be clearing the field to a degree. We’ll see, though. She would be giving up a competitive House seat, though, so I’m not sure if she’s my personal favorite. I’d rather have her defend her House seat and see someone like Haley Stevens run.

As for Republicans: they don’t have a great bench. Peter Meijer probably won’t win a Republican primary, and John James has already lost 2 senate races (but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran again). Otherwise, not sure who the GOP’s top candidate is.

If both James and Slotkin get the nominations then they'd both be abandoning competitive House districts, so it almost cancels works out for Democrats if they can recruit good enough candidates in both districts.

[Orwell]

Gilchrist has my support, though I don’t know if I’ll be voting in Michigan in 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Senate R's are going to recruit -- now available -- Peter Meijier over John James (who's had two strikes and is in a competitive seat) and Huizenga. He's actually the kind of guy McConnell has been wishcasting for (young, veteran, credible conservative, sane) and he's been very open he wants to return to Congress. Now whether he survives the MI-GOP primary, well...

Not sure on the D-side, but there are lots of options. For US House - Slotkin is great, but in a v competitive seat. Tlaib may go for an upgrade, but she seems unlikely to win a primary. Stevens could run, but might not clear field and I'm sure Andy Levin will consider, bc he too wanted to stay in Congress (plus his Uncle's old job). Stevens v Levin 2.0?

Lot of MI-State Gov folks (Gov, AG, SOS) too, but they will probs stay the course to oversee 2024 elections. And yes new resident and POTUS shortlister, SOT Buttigieg, whom will get a ton of speculation especially with a D Senate that could replace him.

Feels like D's have a great bench, but will need to do some coordinating to avoid a pileup. R's have an easy pick imo, BUT will need to make sure MI-GOP doesn't mess it up.

Welcome to the forum!

[President Johnson]

Gilchrist has my support, though I don’t know if I’ll be voting in Michigan in 2024.

Isn't Gilchrist more likely to run for governor in 2026 instead? However, I think both races present good opportunities for him to advance.

Whitmer would be an obvious candidate as well, though I'd bet she's having an eye on 2028 instead. Especially since sources now report Biden is indeed very likely to run for reelection.

[Mr. Smith]

Any ideas what happened to Abdul El-Sayed?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gilchrist has my support, though I don’t know if I’ll be voting in Michigan in 2024.

Isn't Gilchrist more likely to run for governor in 2026 instead? However, I think both races present good opportunities for him to advance.

Whitmer would be an obvious candidate as well, though I'd bet she's having an eye on 2028 instead. Especially since sources now report Biden is indeed very likely to run for reelection.

Whitmer won't beat Harris she already said she has no place to be in DC, Harris is gonna be PREZ

[wbrocks67]

Gilchrist has my support, though I don’t know if I’ll be voting in Michigan in 2024.

Isn't Gilchrist more likely to run for governor in 2026 instead? However, I think both races present good opportunities for him to advance.

Whitmer would be an obvious candidate as well, though I'd bet she's having an eye on 2028 instead. Especially since sources now report Biden is indeed very likely to run for reelection.

There were rumblings that Gilchrist may be interested in Mayor of Detroit, which would likely be a better speed for him? Also sounds like Benson has made it clear she is likely for 2026 GOV which seems very likely.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don't see why Lisa McClain is expected to be a good candidate,  she's only run in a completely safe district in the Thumb area for two whole elections ever.   There's not much to distinguish her from any other candidate and most voters outside of the Thumb probably know nothing about her.

At least John James is kinda-sorta known statewide to some degree, or in the Detroit metro if nothing else.

I don’t think Lisa McClain will be a good candidate, she’s probably the worst of the house members, but what makes her a terrible general election candidate - dabble in election denial, far right culture wars and embracing conspiracies - are all things that will make her an excellent primary candidate

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Slotkin probably beats John James but it makes you wonder what people like Nessel and Benson are calculating if they pass on this opportunity. Both of them can't be governor. I guess Benson could run for Attorney General in 2026 since she is a Harvard-educated lawyer, but that seems like almost a lateral step rather than climbing the ladder.

Nessel would be a really weak candidate, but Benson probably wants to be Governor.  That’s my guess.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1612566102520877063

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1612566102520877063

Yes, rehashing the 2022 Secretary of State race at the Senate level is an excellent line of attack 🙄

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean D anyways Biden isn't losing a 303 state in a Prez yr with his name on the ballot we didn't lose one in 2022, except WI Senate and if Barnes was running this yr he would beat Johnson in a Prez yr


It's a 51/49 Senate we win OH, MT or WVA and probably MO, Kunce bailed D's out with no brand name candidate in FL and TX

We don't have to won PVI by 10 to win red states Obama won 52/46 both in 2008/2012 and won red states a 4/6 pt PVI is surfice

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1612920478204850177

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Glad to see it after RS did so much to stop Barnes FROM getting Elected

[Horus]

I'd like to see Gilchrist go for Senate and Benson for governor. Slotkin is much better than Stevens but I see her as a future majority whip or leader.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I'd like to see Gilchrist go for Senate and Benson for governor. Slotkin is much better than Stevens but I see her as a future majority whip or leader.

If Ray Luján was in the House rn he’d definitely be in the top three. Sometimes people get tired of waiting for a promotion

[Illiniwek]

I'll rally behind Slotkin for the sake of unity, but if I was handpicking the nominee I'd go with Mallory McMorrow. I think she's a rising star in the Michigan Democratic Party and would be a fantastic face for its Congressional delegation. One way or another, I hope she gets a bigger role sooner rather than later.

[Zedonathin2020]

I'll rally behind Slotkin for the sake of unity, but if I was handpicking the nominee I'd go with Mallory McMorrow. I think she's a rising star in the Michigan Democratic Party and would be a fantastic face for its Congressional delegation. One way or another, I hope she gets a bigger role sooner rather than later.

She probably will, if the Democrats have any IQ points higher than that of a Clownfish she definitely would. What will most likely happen to her is that she runs for Steven’s house seat, and then goes for Peter’s seat whenever he retires.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is there any sense of which of the major (potential) candidates are more progressive? I know Slotkin is more moderate and I’ve heard bad things about Stevens, but what about the various state officials?

[GALeftist]

TBH I'm increasingly starting to prefer Gilchrist or Dingell to Slotkin (not abandoning a swing seat + better on the issues) but frankly anyone but Stevens will make me happy

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is there any sense of which of the major (potential) candidates are more progressive? I know Slotkin is more moderate and I’ve heard bad things about Stevens, but what about the various state officials?

The most progressive and best shot recruit would probably Dana Nessel, but she doesn’t seem interested