Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[jaymichaud]

Watched a bit of the debate online. The "Does anyone actually think they can be first minister?" question was so awkward lol.

[beesley]

Saw a few mentions on Twitter (bear with me!) that the SNP have some worries about turnout. Their support is seen as being far softer than Labour's and in a pandemic that effect is exacerbated. Their worry is not that they would come second - far from it, but they would have a result below expectations. If this were to happen it would not cause the SNP to lose the election just by itself but it could make the difference in marginal seats. I've also heard some rumblings that ALBA are doing rather well but that's hard to quantify and hard to poll, so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

In any case, these are just 'rumours' and their have been numerous ones in the past that were complete hogwash, but seeing as it may have rattled SNP HQ I thought it worth mentioning. I will probably have a go at a projection next week for the fun of it.

[mileslunn]

It is pretty much a foregone conclusion SNP will win, but for passing legislation since it is unlikely they will win a majority, who will they turn to?  There are Greens and Labour if they want to govern on left while Liberal Democrats if more towards the centre.  Doubt they will rely much on the Tories.  And what could this mean?  Also my understanding is Greens are for an independence referendum but other parties opposed so if SNP + Greens get over half the seats, I presume that means another independence referendum.  Off course with Johnson promising not to recognize it, won't go anywhere.

Also Scotland if they separate wants to rejoin EU which most voted to remain part of, but does EU have any interest in admitting them?  I am thinking Spain might veto their entry, at least they threatened to back in 2014 worried it would embolden Catalan and Basque separatists and much of their success at preventing independence there is promise neither would be EU members if they separated.

[beesley]

It is pretty much a foregone conclusion SNP will win, but for passing legislation since it is unlikely they will win a majority, who will they turn to?  There are Greens and Labour if they want to govern on left while Liberal Democrats if more towards the centre.  Doubt they will rely much on the Tories.  And what could this mean?  Also my understanding is Greens are for an independence referendum but other parties opposed so if SNP + Greens get over half the seats, I presume that means another independence referendum.  Off course with Johnson promising not to recognize it, won't go anywhere.

Bolded is not happening. The Greens prop up the SNP now and it's worked out pretty well for the both of them, so if the numbers worked I think it would continue as is. Besides, if those are the circumstances and ALBA win no seats that still secures a pro-independence majority and would be the only way of doing so. Therefore regardless of what Johnson does they would have the votes both for an independence referendum and to keep themselves in power.

[GALeftist]

Also Scotland if they separate wants to rejoin EU which most voted to remain part of, but does EU have any interest in admitting them?  I am thinking Spain might veto their entry, at least they threatened to back in 2014 worried it would embolden Catalan and Basque separatists and much of their success at preventing independence there is promise neither would be EU members if they separated.

I'm not an expert on this by any means, but I suspect the calculus has shifted now that the UK has left the EU altogether, and I think I remember the Sanchez government saying something to this effect. The concern is that Spain or other countries with independence movements might veto entry of states like Scotland which secede to signal to their own secessionist movements that leaving means that they will not be able to rejoin the EU. However, the UK is no longer an EU member state, so obviously that argument no longer applies to Scotland, and in theory this would seem to mean that the situations of Scotland and Catalonia are no longer analogous in this regard.

[brucejoel99]

Also Scotland if they separate wants to rejoin EU which most voted to remain part of, but does EU have any interest in admitting them?  I am thinking Spain might veto their entry, at least they threatened to back in 2014 worried it would embolden Catalan and Basque separatists and much of their success at preventing independence there is promise neither would be EU members if they separated.

I'm not an expert on this by any means, but I suspect the calculus has shifted now that the UK has left the EU altogether, and I think I remember the Sanchez government saying something to this effect. The concern is that Spain or other countries with independence movements might veto entry of states like Scotland which secede to signal to their own secessionist movements that leaving means that they will not be able to rejoin the EU. However, the UK is no longer an EU member state, so obviously that argument no longer applies to Scotland, and in theory this would seem to mean that the situations of Scotland and Catalonia are no longer analogous in this regard.

Tbf, Spain has said that they'd have no problem with allowing Scotland back into the EU so long as Scotland had left the UK in a legally legitimate manner (i.e., with the UK's consent, which still remains an obvious 'must have' for independence).

[afleitch]

Few points on Sturgeon's seat.

I'm just outside it, but gravitate in terms of shopping/walks etc to places within it. Sturgeon is still immensely popular. There are SNP signs plastered in windows in some of the poorest parts of the city in her constituency and in the window of Asian/Romani run businesses too. There are few Labour signs except from in the richest part of the seat in Pollokshields in the large sandstone villas. Both areas are heavily Muslim with the differentiation being age and class. There's financial and intersectional votes for Sarwar to squeeze but Sturgeon is a notoriously available local politician for someone in such a high position. She's working the seat hard, but she seems to be enjoying it.

Also...and this is very important. Nearly all party leaders are working their home turf due to coronavirus restrictions. It doesn't make much sense to do the battlebus/battlecopter up and down the country.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/insight-why-the-govanhill-community-has-trust-in-nicola-sturgeon-to-deliver-3213042

The Spectator I think were being a bit disingenuous in their contrast of both Sturgeon and Sarwar and relative local popularity.

In terms of Alba, for a very forthright movement there is little evidence of high levels of engagement. Salmond's ratings are the worst of any polled major figure in Scotland and Alba have not seen any growth or ebb in the opinion polls. Bear in mind that Alba on 3% could yield more MSP's than on 6% depending on where their vote is concentrated. There's not much evidence of the high sort of in person or social engagement levels you would expect, particularly from a very ONLINE party such as Alba. I could be completely wrong on that of course.

The Greens are expected to do rather better, but they aren't doing better or worse in the regional vote since mid March.

The real contest is for second place. The parties look similar to 2016, where the Tories did much better because of their constituency wins. In order for Labour to retake second, there has to be an unwinding of tactical voting (as happened in 2019) to see some Tories loose their seats and hope that the maths helps Labour in the list.

Also bearing in mind there is a plethora of smaller list parties, mostly of a socially conservative and unionist persuasion that could be quietly siphoning over a few thousand votes in each region from parties like the Tories but aren't being picked up. Same with Andy Wightman's campaign in the Highlands and Islands when it comes to the Greens.

The polls may also not be picking up on the Boris effect, but going by the news cycle that may have already peaked.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Some information on counting.

The full picture, including for the regions is unlikely to be known until Saturday.

Due to the more sociable hours of the count (I hope), I might be able to do a running commentary rather than appearing online at 2am falling asleep after three posts.

[beesley]

I was going to ask, as the moderator for this board whether you thought it would be good to have a UK-wide results discussion thread as the results come in.

[Estrella]

There are few Labour signs except from in the richest part of the seat in Pollokshields in the large sandstone villas.

That's the sound of Keir Hardie spinning in his grave.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Afleitch, who will you be supporting on the list vote? It doesn’t look like the SNP can get any list seats in Glasgow/Central Scotland, so will it be a vote for the Greens?

[CumbrianLefty]

There are few Labour signs except from in the richest part of the seat in Pollokshields in the large sandstone villas.

That's the sound of Keir Hardie spinning in his grave.

Hardie was, of course, a convinced unionist.

[afleitch]

Afleitch, who will you be supporting on the list vote? It doesn’t look like the SNP can get any list seats in Glasgow/Central Scotland, so will it be a vote for the Greens?

Given the polling right now, Green on the the list.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This Canadian just started getting into GB politics and watched the Scottish leaders' debate, and personally I quite liked Sarwar. Any reason why Labour is struggling so much in Scotland? Is it just a matter of labour-inclined voters also being more nationalistic?

[Geoffrey Howe]

This Canadian just started getting into GB politics and watched the Scottish leaders' debate, and personally I quite liked Sarwar. Any reason why Labour is struggling so much in Scotland? Is it just a matter of labour-inclined voters also being more nationalistic?

I should really defer to the Scots in this thread, but my ‘take’ is that yes, left wingers are likely more nationalistic. For one thing, Labour nationally aren’t doing terribly well. But specific to Scotland there seems to be a feeling that the SNP - and maybe independence - is the most effective opposition to the Tories in Westminster. I try not to be too tendentious because I have a visceral hatred of the SNP.

Edit: Beesley’s post has reminded me also that apparently they disliked Labour campaigning along the Tories (and coalition Lib Dems) for the union.

[beesley]

This Canadian just started getting into GB politics and watched the Scottish leaders' debate, and personally I quite liked Sarwar. Any reason why Labour is struggling so much in Scotland? Is it just a matter of labour-inclined voters also being more nationalistic?

Just in time for the election. Short answer is yes - you can see it in that some of Labour's formerly strongest areas voted overall for independence. Combine that with the tarnished national brand and it's a lot to recover from. A lot of people agree that Sarwar is likeable and I personally think Labour will not struggle as much to turn out their vote thanks to him, but whatever he does he will be overshadowed by Nicola Sturgeon. As Geoffrey Howe said, the SNP also have that Scottish image that Labour lost to a degree in the independence referendum.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Quite frankly though, I cannot understand why this hasn’t convinced all the separatists.

 

[beesley]

Where the party leaders spent the last day of the campaign:

Nicola Sturgeon: West Aberdeenshire and Dumbarton, two very close seats last time.
Anas Sarwar: Dumbarton, and wherever he held a drive-in rally.
Douglas Ross: East Lothian and Stirling, would be surprised if the Tories took either.
Patrick Harvie: Glasgow Kelvin, the seat where he is standing.
Willie Rennie: East Lothian (!?) and Caithness, the latter of which is their top target.
Alex Salmond: Holding a press conference from ALBA HQ, was in Musselburgh yesterday
George Galloway: Outside the Scottish Parliament building.

[beesley]

Right! I promised you a prediction, usual caveats about how this is just my own prediction and could be completely wrong apply.

SNP: 60
Conservative: 31
Labour: 23
Greens: 10
LD: 5
None for ALBA, AFU or Andy Wightman. Of those I reckon ALBA has a shot at one or two but it's unlikely.

I'm slightly more bearish for the SNP than others but they're still only five off a majority. In the grand scheme of things this result would be similar to last time. I'm not certain about the Green figure but I went for one in each region plus two in Glasgow and Lothian. Part of the Conservative strength is that I think they'll hold most of their list vote and list seats. I think the Lib Dems will hold the same seats they do now.  Constituencies are hard to predict but I believe there won't be too many changing hands, so much so that I don't think there will be a single guaranteed constituency gain (unless you count Aberdeen Donside and Renfrewshire North.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SNP: 62
Conservative: 29
Labour: 21
Greens: 9
LD: 6
ALBA: 1

blind prediction

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Quite frankly though, I cannot understand why this hasn’t convinced all the separatists.

 

ngl, the production values on that were quite good. The style of the video reminded me of Rick Steve's Europe.

[LabourJersey]

Quite frankly though, I cannot understand why this hasn’t convinced all the separatists.

 

ngl, the production values on that were quite good. The style of the video reminded me of Rick Steve's Europe.

If Rick Steve's Europe was hosted by the most ridiculous englishman on earth

[bore]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

[beesley]

It is pleasing to hear of decent turnouts. I always expected that it would be still reasonably good in Scotland and Wales (relative to what we can sensibly hope for) but it's good news nevertheless.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.