Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

(though we are talking in very relative terms, in both cases)

As for the Tories, they are going to miss Davidson badly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sturgeon does seem to be getting stick over the exam grades business that goes beyond the usual suspects, however - whether that leads to anything longer term is another matter.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories have a new leader after Douglas Ross MP was elected unopposed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course, it requires Scottish Labour following the Scottish Tories' example and ditching their worse-than-useless leader.

Tbh I have a feeling Leonard will fall on his sword before these elections - no actual evidence tbf, just a hunch.

Though he may delay it until early 2021 in the hope his successor might still be looking "new" come election day (I think he would also prefer that person not to be Jackie Baillie, though that may well be out of his hands now)

[CumbrianLefty]

Re the latest YouGov survey, aside from the usual "possible outlier" caveat it has to be noted that the ratings for our esteemed PM in Scotland are *incredibly* bad - "up" there with Corbyn's at their worst.

(btw Starmer scores something like plus 15, an indication all may not be totally lost for SLab if only they could at least minimally get their s*** together somehow)

[CumbrianLefty]

If the answer involves "a new leader" then I said just the other day that I increasingly suspect that will happen before next year's election (though maybe not until 2021 is upon us)

[CumbrianLefty]

Though I agree with the previous poster (and I don't on quite a lot of stuff) in that simple bone-headed Ian Murray type unionism, Union Jack waistcoats and all, also isn't going to cut it.

And that, really, summarises Scottish Labour's fundamental problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

And of course, the SNP are now trying to score points over the English situation.

Shameless doesn't even begin to cover it really

[CumbrianLefty]

She is the acting Tory "leader" in Hoyrood for the time being, given that Ross is based in Westminster.

[CumbrianLefty]

She is the acting Tory "leader" in Hoyrood for the time being, given that Ross is based in Westminster.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, though unless Ruth can reverse Brexit & retroactively improve the UK's COVID-19 response, I don't think this'll be helping the Scottish Tories.

Her best days are almost certainly behind her, though this is a pragmatic arrangement really.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is at least a chance SLab could regain second spot in this year's election, and thus the status of "official" opposition to the SNP. That would be better than nothing.

[CumbrianLefty]

More damaging stuff coming out by the hour.

Even now, I am sceptical this will massively affect May's elections - ie the SNP are still going to win. But could it yet make the difference between getting a pro-independence majority or not?

[CumbrianLefty]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sarwar isn’t perfect, but he’s at least a serious politician and the best Scottish Labour have.

Jackie Baillie

As with Ian Murray (the sole Scottish Labour MP) she is probably a bit too right wing.

Sarwar is somewhat more in the mainstream.

[CumbrianLefty]

Now it looks like though the SNP will still win an overall majority, they will have even less seats than they did ten years ago:

The really "messy" result would be the SNP falling narrowly short of a "de facto" majority (ie with the generally Indy-sympathetic Scottish Greens included) As there likely wouldn't be any stable "unionist" arrangement in such a scenario either.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some tough questioning for Sturgeon at FMQs today, but no killer blow.

This looks set to run a while yet.

[CumbrianLefty]

Many of the votes in these by-elections were cast by post before the latest stuff really blew up.

There are more Scottish vacancies coming up, so it will be possible to observe if there is any drop in SNP performance (or not, as the case may be) as the above factor lessens.

[CumbrianLefty]

This doesn't rule out pro-Salmond "spoiler" candidates in some constituencies.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Hard to see the SNP saying "don't vote for us on the list, vote for Alba". And even if it doesn't turn out that way, there must be little doubt Salmond intends this to hurt Sturgeon rather than the reverse.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Speaking of which, Neale Hanvey has also defected.

It remains a tragedy that he beat Lesley Laird in the first place.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

[CumbrianLefty]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

[CumbrianLefty]

Not impossible - this isn't an actual prediction, mind - that Sarwar could lift up Labour's vote a bit in Glasgow more generally. Which might mean a few SNP constituency seats at least becoming fairly close - but of course I agree that Sturgeon's own patch won't be one of them.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are few Labour signs except from in the richest part of the seat in Pollokshields in the large sandstone villas.

That's the sound of Keir Hardie spinning in his grave.

Hardie was, of course, a convinced unionist.

[CumbrianLefty]

Salmond appears to have flopped even in his former stamping grounds.