Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[afleitch]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

[afleitch]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

Because the SNP could well.be more or less maxed out at the moment. Of course, uphill only remains a return to something resembling relevance for SLab, not challenging for power, at least not next year.

Paradoxically, I think a big SNP win next May might be the best thing for SLab in the long term.

There has been a mild 'recovery' for Labour in the polling for Holyrood, but it's because of the fall in the Tory vote. The problem for Labour is that it is not a 'labour' party. It's core vote is fluid around the edges; it's mostly Unionist and flows back and forwards from the Tories (and a little vice versa). There's nothing essentially Labour about the Labour base or even the seats it can win in. A decline in the SNP vote as of the result of a fall in popularity would probably result in abstention (as in 2017) rather than a raw movement to Labour.

[afleitch]

On a mostly British non-politics board I'm on the Scots there have a lot of criticism about how Sturgeon has run things, but she's able to get by publicly on a lot of stuff by comparing herself to London-based leadership, which is something American posters are very familiar with (Governor is kinda lukewarm leader but can always say he or she is doing better than the people in D.C.).

Also talk about what the SNP is doing as far as a credible plan for nationalism if they actually want to separate in the near future: the "keep the British pound" plan Salmond had would've condemned the state of Scotland to depression in present circumstances and North Sea oil has collapsed in price.

There is a hard core VERY ONLINE segment of the Scottish electorate that despise the SNP and particularly Nicola Sturgeon. They flood most of the online comment sections too. One forum that I and others here are on, the Scottish contingent are almost exclusively hard core Unionists who think 'I like the SNP because x' is practically trolling

The truth is, right now she's popular. The SNP are popular. Even after 13 years in power. Scotland was solidly Labour for nearly 50 years regardless of the merits of Labour in power or out of power and regardless of the protestations of those who hated them and wondered why people still voted for them (trust me, I remember)

It doesn't mean we're expecting decades of this, but while the Scottish electorate appears volatile, since 2011 (SNP's biggest Holyrood victory was before independence was a 'thing') it's behaved within the same parameters.

[afleitch]

A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

So now we know what Sturgeon's response is, complete capitulation:

Tens of thousands of school pupils are to have their exam results upgraded after the Scottish government agreed to accept teacher estimates of scores.

The government u-turn follows an outcry from pupils after a moderation system saw 125,000 estimated results being downgraded.

All results that were downgraded will now be withdrawn and replaced by the original estimates.

Which, regardless of whether this is the best policy (I would say it is, but only from the perspective that if the fairness and integrity of the exam system was my aim I wouldn't be starting from here) this will almost certainly avoid lasting damage on this specifically, though the hope for other parties is that if you're clumsy once you'll soon be clumsy again.

Possibly. But a poll conducted post Cherry, Douglass Ross and 'Swinney must go' has just put the SNP on 57%.

Usually the press attack if the results are up, which they were,  because there must be political interference or the exams are too 'easy' now complained that they weren't up enough and that there wasn't enough intervention and no doubt will complain when they are down, which they will be, next year. The need to get the Scottish Government on anything will have ramifications for the results in rUK once they hit the doorsteps tomorrow.

I agree that there's nothing Swinney could do but throw it back to the trachers and it has forced the UK Education Secretary to do the same. Personally I see it as a misstep; it's a matter for the examination bodies and should not have been politicised by a desperate Scottish unionist adjacent media.

[afleitch]

Re the latest YouGov survey, aside from the usual "possible outlier" caveat it has to be noted that the ratings for our esteemed PM in Scotland are *incredibly* bad - "up" there with Corbyn's at their worst.

(btw Starmer scores something like plus 15, an indication all may not be totally lost for SLab if only they could at least minimally get their s*** together somehow)

Hi Scottish Labour. Want to poll 30%?

Oh yes!

Get some REAL Labour policies and figures back to the front line?

Tell me how!!

Back a second independence referendum and allow members to take a 'pro' line if they want.

Is there another way?

I tell you this every year. No. Unless you want an even bigger defeat next year.

'Don't listen to him. The Union is more important than the workers!'

Oh yes. Harder daddy. Give me that precious Union. Harder. Drive me me down to 10% sir. For the Union sir!

[afleitch]

If the answer involves "a new leader" then I said just the other day that I increasingly suspect that will happen before next year's election (though maybe not until 2021 is upon us)

As a matter of fact, it does involve that.

If they can find a way of retaking second place it would be an astounding achievement though, let's not get ahead of ourselves. And backing a referendum is one of those things that sounds great until you apply every test of logic to it when it falls apart. If SLab do that they deserve to permanently and finally die.

Winning back the core vote that fled because they supported independence by opposing independence even harder is a stellar take.

[afleitch]

A question : why has DevoMax so often touted before the referendum not been revived. Surely it makes better sense for Nationalists and could be somewhat attractive to Scottish Labour in a reduced format?

Because it was a lie they had no intention of delivering.

The more nuanced answer is that a restructure would probably require a root and branch reorganisation of Home Nation government, the creation of an English Parliament, the reduction of Commons power and deep reform or abolition of the House of Lords. And they have no intention of ever delivering that either.

[afleitch]

There is at least a chance SLab could regain second spot in this year's election, and thus the status of "official" opposition to the SNP. That would be better than nothing.

I think they will.

[afleitch]

It might be because it's an excessively bubble esque story (parliamentary committee arguing with prosecutor about releasing evidence) but it's still remarkable that this hasn't had less cut through & hasn't caused bigger issues in the SNP.
 

It's a bubble esque story as no one can understand it. It has the potential to be deeply damaging but that depends on whether Salmond is telling the truth. He has no desire to attend Holyrood to face questions. If Sturgeon's evidence is deemed credible then all Salmond has is 'it's all a big conspiracy' and no one likes him enough to care.

[afleitch]

Anas Sarwar won the SLAB leadership. He is their 9th permanent leader since 1999.

[afleitch]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

I'm not a fan of Sturgeon at all, and I think she's very much in the wrong, but I doubt this is going to have the impact certain people want it to. It's also notable how some news agencies have hardly reported on it at all, while others are making it out to be some sort of Scottish Watergate.

Yes. It's been hard to make much hay with it.

Some in politics and the media have gotten ahead of themselves in not only in deciding that what Salmond is saying 'must be correct' but embellishing what he said because it didn't fit with that they assumed he was going to say during his testimony (cough Sarah Smith)

Sturgeon still hasn't appeared yet and there's nothing remotely close to 'ministerial code breaking' that hasn't been topped by various Tory ministers on day's that end in y.

The idea that this might not be as damaging as was hoped, can't be distilled into a one sentence soundbite and that the public might not care has been lost on many.

Having said that, Sturgeon wants to go. If the thinks she can go after May, and handover most of a term to a successor she will.

[afleitch]

So we have two North Lanarkshire by-elections on Thursday in Thorniewood and Fortissat, then three the following week and four the week after.

These are worth watching. Thorniewood was close in 2017 andcFortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find. Transfers will deny the SNP here but worth looking at vote share up's and downs.

[afleitch]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Orange lodges are most dense in the North Lanarkshire, Falkirk, West Lothian triangle. Anecdotally (the Monklands saga etc) the SNP did relatively better there in the past at least until the 90's (but still far behind Labour) but this has actually reversed and heavily so since the referendum. Indeed, there's some alleged entryism in Labour branches here.

[afleitch]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Did these areas vote against devolution?

Nowhere voted against in 1997 and what opposition there was was concentrated in the North East, Perthshire and the Borders (ie the bits where the Tories were strongest, although most of them were also strong SNP areas and seem to have had lower turnout, so maybe some SNP supporters boycotted?)

In 1979 I can only see results by region, which isn't granular enough to tell. I wouldn't be surprised, given that the turnout threshold for the 1979 referendum was imposed due to the actions of Labour MPs representing such areas and given that mining areas were the traditional stronghold of Labour anti-devolution sentiment in Wales.

Labour refused to work with the official 'Yes' campaign as it contained the SNP. Helen Liddell who was Secretary at the time said 'We will not soil our hands'. Indeed the official Yes campaign despite being headed by a Tory; Lord Kilbrandon was boycotted due the SNP so Labour set up their own.

The unions did come through; TGW, Confederation of Shipbuilders etc.

Worth nothing that the Church of Scotland was a long standing supporter of devolution. Catholics were a little cooler towards the idea due to Northern Ireland.

In terms of supporter polling had Tories pretty much 50-50 in January but 75-25 against the Assemblt in February.

The campaign was trying to herd cats.

[afleitch]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Outside of the 'bubble' there is quite a wide feeling that 'well you've already made up you minds' when it comes to Sturgeon. The media and the opposition haven't waited to hear her and had no intention to.

What came out today was some evidence in support of the talk of names being shared/leaked etc, but none of it directly links back to Sturgeon. What she says tomorrow is key. I still think it's likely she stays simply because no one cares. Not to say they shouldn't care, but it's not really captured public attention.

[afleitch]

Some tough questioning for Sturgeon at FMQs today, but no killer blow.

This looks set to run a while yet.

Not only was it tough, but it was repetitive. Which feeds into a growing narrative that the more partisan members of the committee had already made up their minds. So kept asking the same questions again and again. Jackie Baillie for example, challenged Sturgeon on a conversation that she was never involved in and hadn't heard. And when Sturgeon said 'I've answered this three times' Baillie snapped 'Well answer it a fourth'. So Sturgeon spent most of the afternoon responding 'as I already said' or simply that she couldn't answer because it didn't involve her.

For me, I think it was a very resourceful move by the partisan members because it allowed a half dozen of the same responses allowing for those reporting to pick the one that was mumbled, tired or exasperated. But instead it left reporters with too much to work with.

There isn't much meat in this to chew. There wasn't last week with Salmond and based on the questions today I think it's clear that what people think it going to fall on partisan lines anyway.

There is some 'very online' support for Sturgeon that has been unexpected though, particularly along the lines of Salmond's gaslighting of women who accused him of misconduct is extending to his treatment of Sturgeon.

[afleitch]

Yes, wards that have the oddity of having prior by-elections.

Swings to the SNP from Labour based on the 2017 results (which was a month before the GE) with an independent intervention in Thorniewood and a loss of one (nominally Unionist) in Fortissat.

It suggests relative stability in the vote.

[afleitch]

Interesting map from the Fortissat by-elections

It shows the core Unionist vote in this part of the wold; the BUP leading in Harthill in the past, Labour in Shotts.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1368985922004545538

[afleitch]

I don't get the impression that the SNP are disappointed by any of the defections so far.

We're ecstatic (Eck-static?)

Genuinely. If I had a bingo card of every MP, councillor and NEC member I expected would defect personally and wanted to defect they pretty much have done. Including one whose election to the NEC almost made me resign. They all worked their way into the party to try and take the reins, had a really sh-tty week that didn't go according to plan and then jumped ship.

We're probably the first UK party whose TERF wing has basically left. Women who bleat on about threats to women's spaces and safety from imagined fears...joining Alex Salmond.

[afleitch]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

[afleitch]

And England in Scots Gaelic is 'Sasainn'; Saxon as opposed to Angle.

[afleitch]

Meanwhile:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesarchie98/status/1382252016571924480

[afleitch]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

Especially considering the gap between how Labour is currently polling and Sarwar's very good approval ratings...

To be fair his approvals are high because there's a huge 'don't know response at the moment.' But he's hsd the best reception, especially in comparison to his Tory counterpart as a Labour leader in years.

65 seats are a majority. There are 73 constituencies. If other parties only win 8 of those, the SNP can get a majority on that alone. Very approximately the SNP would have all but 10 of those seats based on the 2019 pattern of votes with a 45% share so would need two more to do it, or on the list.

Been a bit of a post Philip poll drought and no polls conducted since 12th April.

As for polling error as much as the SNP undershot in 2016, they overshot in 2019. So it's best not to hedge bets either way.

[afleitch]

I guess this answers my earlier question:

Scottish election 2021: Hopes for SNP majority continue to fade as more support slips away, shows poll
SNP hopes of a majority at next month’s Holyrood elections continue to fade as another poll shows the party is set to narrowly miss out on returning more than 65 MSPs.

Also, if you push the undecideds, there is actually a narrow majority against independence. 

Sort of. There's a YouGov poll that's much better for the SNP.

On indy, there has been narrowing and now reversal. It's possible that there's a vaccine rollout boost for 'the union'; the same energy that's keeping the Tories popular nationwide. It's possible that Salmond on the scene has went down like a cup of cold sick with soft Yes voters.

[afleitch]

Yes.

We have a very anti-devolution government under Boris, tghe most under any administration. It's clear (and this isn't just hyperbole) that there is an undercurrent of disdain for both Scotland and Northern Ireland.