OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[ON Progressive]

He has lower approvals in the Clinton states than the ones he won.

BREAKING NEWS: States that are willing to vote for a Republican like a Republican more than states that aren't willing to vote for a Republican as President.

The 58% approval in Ohio you talk about is one poll from Surveymonkey (LOL), and the article shows other polls with Trump underwater in Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And most polls show DeWine and ahead of Cordray and the GOP leading in all races except the Senate race.

[BuckeyeNut]

And most polls show DeWine and ahead of Cordray and the GOP leading in all races except the Senate race.

No they don’t?

Polling shows Brown as a clear favorite over Renacci, Cordray and DeWine jostling for who is in first, more jostling for the other statewide executives except for Auditor, where the Democrat is leading. House polls do show O’Connor down, but they also show Aftab up. Sadly, there haven’t been any OH-07 or OH-14 polls yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marist put out the poll showing DeWine ahead, granted it was Margin of error poll, which should of been taken with a grain of salt.

[BuckeyeNut]

Marist put out the poll showing DeWine ahead, granted it was Margin of error poll, which should of been taken with a grain of salt.

One poll doesn’t mean much of anything. Looking at singular polls in a vacuum leads to dumb statements like the one I replied to above.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Others made comments about GoPs chances in the state before I replied, but you didn't bother responding to them

[BuckeyeNut]

1: Yes I did.
2: Your comments were particularly dumb, citing singular polls as objective be-all-end-all benchmarks.
3: I’m putting you on ignore. You and Bagel go have fun now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1: Yes I did.
2: Your comments were particularly dumb, citing singular polls as objective be-all-end-all benchmarks.
3: I’m putting you on ignore. You and Bagel go have fun now.

Who cares

[IceSpear]

Damn, OC is getting snippy, LOL.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Damn, OC is getting snippy, LOL.

The machines are rebelling?

[BuckeyeNut]

Damn, OC is getting snippy, LOL.

The machines are rebelling?

I think he meant OP.

On topic: The Columbus Dispatch has endorsed O'Connor for the House seat. This is somewhat unusual, given the Dispatch editorial board is traditionally conservative, and Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat for President they had endorsed in some 100 years. This probably speaks more to Trump's--for lack of a better word--radicalization of the press than of anything positive happening for O'Connor. As we all know, editorial endorsements mean damn little.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

How will Delaware County vote?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How will Delaware County vote?

Super heavily for Senator Balderson.

[IceSpear]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

[BuckeyeNut]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Is that not the dreamiest 33-year old you've ever seen?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

[Boobs]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Is that not the dreamiest 33-year old you've ever seen?

[BuckeyeNut]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Is that not the dreamiest 33-year old you've ever seen?

Joe is 36 in that picture, AFAIK.

[136or142]

How will Delaware County vote?

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

[136or142]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Being serious, unlike my last post, I'm not sure about that.  If I recall correctly, while there were 68 U.S House districts in 2016 that the Democrats lost by less than 20% (that is the correct number) there were just 15 or 16 (or maybe 14) that they lost by less than 10%.  So, while this district was a huge win for Tiberi in 2016, both as a now open district, and as a reflection of the sort of district that the Democrats will need to win in November to retake the House (at least with a comfortable majority) I think the 'hot take' makes sense.

For what it's worth, at this point, I think the Democrats are potentially competitive in 63 of those 68 districts, but most people disagree with me in that they don't think the Democrats are competitive in most of the Texas districts.

[IceSpear]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Being serious, unlike my last post, I'm not sure about that.  If I recall correctly, while there were 68 U.S House districts in 2016 that the Democrats lost by less than 20% (that is the correct number) there were just 15 or 16 (or maybe 14) that they lost by less than 10%.  So, while this district was a huge win for Tiberi in 2016, both as a now open district, and as a reflection of the sort of district that the Democrats will need to win in November to retake the House (at least with a comfortable majority) I think the 'hot take' makes sense.

For what it's worth, at this point, I think the Democrats are potentially competitive in 63 of those 68 districts, but most people disagree with me in that they don't think the Democrats are competitive in most of the Texas districts.

Would they win this district if they were winning in a gigantic landslide? Probably. But go race by race for yourself and you can easily spot at least 40 easier targets.

Extrapolating too much from one House race is never a good idea anyway. If you extrapolated from just PA-12 in 2010 it would seem like Republicans would have no chance at winning the House. If you extrapolated from just AZ-08 this year you'd expect Republicans to lose over 100 seats.

[wesmoorenerd]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.

Either way, I wouldn't focus too much on this single data point. There's a consistent Dem trend in special elections, but the actual margin differs. Ossoff swung his district significantly less than Lamb, and I'm willing to bet O'Connor comes much closer to Ossoff. His campaign hasn't been great so far and Balderson is much better than Saccone. I hate to say it but this is Balderson's race to lose at this point.

That being said, if O'Connor won, I think Dem prospects for November are brighter than ever. O'Connor is consistently down in polling, so if he wins it'll probably be because of monstrous Dem turnout. That's very good news for Democrats all around.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

How will Delaware County vote?

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

There is a Delaware County, OH. A White Affluent Suburban county just north of Columbus.

[136or142]

How will Delaware County vote?

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

There is a Delaware County, OH. A White Affluent Suburban county just north of Columbus.

When I first read 'Delaware County' regarding this race I was initially very confused.  Not much creativity in American place names, unfortunately.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How will Delaware County vote?

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

There is a Delaware County, OH. A White Affluent Suburban county just north of Columbus.

When I first read 'Delaware County' regarding this race I was initially very confused.  Not much creativity in American place names, unfortunately.

Useless trivia dept: there are actually six Delaware Counties in the following states: IN, IA, NY, OH, OK, and PA.

(Washington County says "hold my beer".  There are 31 of them!)