OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 108228 times)
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« on: October 19, 2017, 06:16:23 AM »
Quote from: Flawless Beautiful Sherrod Brown ❤ ❤ ❤ on October 18, 2017, 11:39:25 PM
Oh. My. God.

There's a nobody running on the Dems side. And I doubt this seat is flippable even in a wave, but a real candidate should get in.

Coleman and Brunner would be terrible candidates here, and the district actually does include some of the northern bits of Columbus proper.

According to www.politics1.com, 3 Democrats were running even before this potential retirement of Tiberi

Ohio 12
Ed Albertson (D) - Businessman, Army Veteran & '16 Nominee
John Peters (D)
Doug Wilson (D) - Ex-Ashley Mayor, Respiratory Care Practitioner & Artist
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2018, 07:45:19 PM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on June 13, 2018, 05:15:45 PM
Danny O'Connor is trying to pull a Conor Lamb. Only problem, Balderson is no Saccone and O'Connor is no Conor.

Have you seen Balderson's 'I'm with Trump anti immigration commercial'?

Balderson is no different than Saccone.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2018, 10:42:39 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2018, 10:55:58 PM by 136or142 »

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2018, 11:02:20 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 08, 2018, 07:25:56 PM
The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. Smiley I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.



Being serious, unlike my last post, I'm not sure about that.  If I recall correctly, while there were 68 U.S House districts in 2016 that the Democrats lost by less than 20% (that is the correct number) there were just 15 or 16 (or maybe 14) that they lost by less than 10%.  So, while this district was a huge win for Tiberi in 2016, both as a now open district, and as a reflection of the sort of district that the Democrats will need to win in November to retake the House (at least with a comfortable majority) I think the 'hot take' makes sense.

For what it's worth, at this point, I think the Democrats are potentially competitive in 63 of those 68 districts, but most people disagree with me in that they don't think the Democrats are competitive in most of the Texas districts.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2018, 08:32:57 AM »
Quote from: Centrist98 on July 09, 2018, 07:32:20 AM
Quote from: 136or142 on July 08, 2018, 10:42:39 PM

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

There is a Delaware County, OH. A White Affluent Suburban county just north of Columbus.

When I first read 'Delaware County' regarding this race I was initially very confused.  Not much creativity in American place names, unfortunately.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2018, 10:19:32 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on July 19, 2018, 10:17:07 PM

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

I wouldn't read much in to this. It's less than 10,000 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2018, 12:20:28 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 04, 2018, 11:58:58 PM
So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usally varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

Montana is the largest Congressional district by population.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 06:33:10 PM »
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2018, 06:43:16 PM »
Percent   Candidate   Party   Votes   Winner
70%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   14,082   
29.3%   Troy Balderson   GOP   5,894   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   150   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2018, 06:47:30 PM »
   66.8%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   16,013   
32.5%   Troy Balderson   GOP   7,787   
0.8%   Joe Manchik   GP   188   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2018, 06:53:37 PM »
63.7%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   17,079   
35.5%   Troy Balderson   GOP   9,507   
0.8%   Joe Manchik   GP   225   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2018, 06:59:11 PM »
62.9%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   22,387   
36.4%   Troy Balderson   GOP   12,945   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   261   

All the early vote counted.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2018, 07:19:12 PM »
62.5%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   22,653   
36.8%   Troy Balderson   GOP   13,322   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   267   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2018, 07:27:38 PM »
61.2%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   24,078   
38%           Troy Balderson   GOP   14,957   
0.8%   Joe Manchik   GP   295   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2018, 07:34:06 PM »
56.7%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   27,407   
42.6%   Troy Balderson   GOP   20,596   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   361   
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 07:38:55 PM »
57.3%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   29,215   
42%   Troy Balderson   GOP   21,390   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   378   
10.7% of precincts reporting (63/591)
50,983 total votes
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 07:44:59 PM »
57%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   29,767   
42.2%   Troy Balderson   GOP   22,061   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   389   
12.2% of precincts reporting (72/591)
52,217 total votes
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 07:45:58 PM »
If you include the write in votes from Delaware County, Joe Biden is in the lead.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 07:48:30 PM »
Quote from: Great Society on August 07, 2018, 07:47:02 PM
Does anyone know how this district voted in 2008 and 2012?

2008 would be under the old boundaries.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 07:49:51 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on August 07, 2018, 07:48:37 PM
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
30,444   55.4%   
Troy Balderson
Republican
24,134   43.9   
Joe Manchik
Green
412   0.7   
54,990 votes, 18% reporting (106 of 591 precincts)

I was putting in the raw vote.  !!!!
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 07:51:08 PM »
Quote from: 136or142 on August 07, 2018, 07:45:58 PM
If you include the write in votes from Delaware County, Joe Biden is in the lead.

Ellen Lipton is trailing in Michigan, I guess she wasn't everybody's cup of tea.

Don't forget to tip your poll worker.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2018, 07:53:14 PM »
57.1%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   40,014   
42.2%   Troy Balderson   GOP   29,602   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   488   
27.2% of precincts reporting (161/591)
70,104 total votes
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2018, 07:54:01 PM »
53.4%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   43,968   
45.9%   Troy Balderson   GOP   37,754   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   572   
31.5% of precincts reporting (186/591)
82,294 total votes
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2018, 07:56:36 PM »
53.2%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   44,181   
46.1%   Troy Balderson   GOP   38,335   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   575   
32% of precincts reporting (189/591)
83,091 total votes
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2018, 08:00:58 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on August 07, 2018, 07:58:33 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on August 07, 2018, 07:54:21 PM
I'm not liking the Licking County result, honestly.

Called it Yesterday.... Smiley

 baby oh what a crying shame
To let it all slip away
And call it yesterday
Oh baby my life would be so blue
My heart would break in two
Oh what a crying shame

The Mavericks "What a Crying Shame" Awesome song.
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