A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.
And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.
I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.
Either way, I wouldn't focus too much on this single data point. There's a consistent Dem trend in special elections, but the actual margin differs. Ossoff swung his district significantly less than Lamb, and I'm willing to bet O'Connor comes much closer to Ossoff. His campaign hasn't been great so far and Balderson is much better than Saccone. I hate to say it but this is Balderson's race to lose at this point.
That being said, if O'Connor won, I think Dem prospects for November are brighter than ever. O'Connor is consistently down in polling, so if he wins it'll probably be because of monstrous Dem turnout. That's very good news for Democrats all around.
