OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Could State Rep David Leland run? Pretty sure his district narrowly overlaps with OH-12.

There's some narrow overlap, though Leland almost certainly doesn't live in the district. Which, as we all know, isn't a legal problem, but is one of image. The bigger issue is he seems to be angling to attach himself to Betty Sutton's gubernatorial campaign as her Lieutenant Governor. Lord knows he could raise enough money to compete in the 12th, though.

I don't think he's a good fit for this district.  We need someone who can make inroads in the non-Franklin territory.  Plus, the Republican nominee would have to be someone with some serious baggage like Kris Jordan or Clarence Mingo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does Mingo live in that part of the county? It'd be a good thing for him to look at, since he's obviously trying to move up. Jay Goyal could be a good candidate for the Dems. Mansfield-based, Time Magazine 40 under 40, still under 40. Doubt he runs, though, seeing he never finished for four terms in the state house.

I was actually thinking about Goyal and I think he could be a strong recruit (he'd wipe the floor with someone like Jordan, Mingo in the Richland County portion and probably win it by at least a moderately-sized margin against a generic Republican), but I'd be surprised if he's interested.  He's the type of guy who could narrowly win here against a flawed Republican candidate with the right turnout in Franklin County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

I would think that the Dem would need to come close to carrying Delaware county to win.

I don't know.  If they got a tie in the Muskingum County portion, blew the Republican out of the water in the Franklin County, and won the Richland County portion by like 8% (which Goyal could do), and then just avoided getting completely destroyed in Licking and Delaware, I could see a very narrow path to victory.  Kevin Bacon would be a lock in the GE, btw.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

That would be disappointing. But unsurprising. Saves some money for Harbaugh and Rader. Though it sure looks like we've seceded the 16th, so maybe that's unwarranted optimism re: the allocation of resources.

Yeah, I don't get why the Democrats aren't running a wave insurance candidate in Renacci's district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Between the hotbed of Indivisible activism and the real chance, the OH GOP puts up another would-be sex offender (Clarence Mingo) or a domestic abuser (Kris Jodan), I'm starting to feel like there might be a real shot at this seat. Though that might just be Jones' victory going to my head. Although that said, I'm expecting Democrats to raise decent money here.

We’ll see what happens, Scott has some issues of his own (to say the least) and Bacon, the strongest possible Republican candidate, is running.  Haven’t heard any buzz about Mingo or Jordan considering a run lately.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

Yeah, we kinda hate Zach Scott here   Russell is a some dude though and the other stuff I said stands.  If this flips than forget 2014, we’re looking at possibly the biggest wave in American history.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, Trump isn't partucularly unpopular in Ohio so I doubt making gains in Ohio will be possible at all

OH-12 was the only district in the state to trend against Trump, and has a very active Indivisible chapter. It's unlikely to happen, but it's within the realm of possibility.

Gotta disagree with you on this one, the only guy who could thread the needle here is Jay Goyel and even he’d probably narrowly lose and I’m pretty sure he’s not interested.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Holy sh!t Jay Goyal -- AKA the one guy who probably could actually win this for Democrats -- is actually considering.

EDIT: Also, very oddly, Franklin County Sheriff, Dallas Baldwin, endorsed his predecessor, Zack Scott for the seat. This is odd, as Baldwin primaried Scott out along internal party division lines.

WOW!  If he jumps in and a non-Kevin Bacon Republican gets nominated, this is definitely a long-shot pickup possibility given the current political climate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jay Goyal will not run in the special election for OH-12.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

He'll probably still lose, but hopefully he can at least give us a respectable nominee.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

I heard about that the Kilroy endorsement; Russell’s been using her congressional campaign data to do phone banking.  As for O’Connor, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is doing that b/c attacking a Republican for opposing Obamacare could be pretty effective here (at least compared to some of the other available lines).  Almost everyone I’ve talked to about Obamacare thinks it was either universal healthcare or (less common) the same as the Canadian system.  Many voters think the issue boils down to a two option choice between either universal healthcare or a 100% private system and that everything else is just another name for one of those things.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real dhame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

Even New Albany and Dublin? Seems a bit of a stretch. It wouldn't shock me much if Balderson won either.

Remember, he's not a Trumpy conservative, but more of a standard Central Ohio Republican (i.e. still quite conservative, but not a bomb throwing nut about it).

New Albany and Westerville are possible single-digit losses for Balderson, but I’d be pretty surprised if he loses by less than 10% in Dublin.  The swing there is going to be insane, I think.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Lamb could win PA-18, then O Connor can win OH-12.

Except Balderson is a solid quality candidate, Saccone sucked. Also, Lamb is a better candidate than O'Connor.

True, but O’Connor is still a pretty strong candidate and Balderson isn’t a rockstar recruit (although the pubs could do much worse).  Both parties have strong recruits who weren’t the best person they could’ve run.  I think the race is probably Tilt R at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think O'Connor's anti-Pelosi pledge is a mixed move at best. Plenty of Columbus Democrats aren't going to be happy about it, but non-Ohio posters seem to underestimate how conservative Delaware, Richland, and Muskingum are.

Tim Ryan's involvement in boosting O'Connor could also definitely be at play here. But unlike some other Democratic candidates — IA-03's Pete D'Allessandro, for example — O'Connor hasn't specified Tim as his would-be leader.

I still think this will be close, but I think the anti-Pelosi ads suggest that O'Connor's campaign is a little nervous at the moment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

No

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

Agreed, O'Connor's blowing this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Damn, OC is getting snippy, LOL.

The machines are rebelling?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

Nah, O’Connor could’ve won, but he’s blown it.  He needed to run a much stronger campaign to pull it off and even then, we might’ve simply needed Jay Goyal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Today's updated numbers:

Dang.  That's pretty good.  Let's hope these numbers hold up.

Wake me when we hit 70%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Balderson campaign has gone dark, really odd:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1022897317920366592

Downright weird. I checked the campaign's Facebook page and went under the events tab just within the last week. The last listed event was right after the primary, I kid you not.

 if it were further before election day, one could maybe hypothesize balderson was husbanding his resources, in terms of both money and stamina, for the final push. But election day is a week and a half from now, so that makes no sense.

Can anyone on the ground corroborate or refute that baldersons campaign is resembling hibernation mode? If this is true, can anyone hypothesize WTF is going on? Seriously, this is completely inexplicable. This is the kind of hunkering down Behavior a candidate usually engages in when some horrible media story has kicked up an absolute sh**tstorm they're trying to weather through.

If this is true, and if it doesn't radically change within the next week, I may have to change my prediction from a narrow balderson win.

I told her you I hadn’t been seeing much from Balderson’s campaign lately   I’ve seen a few low budget YouTube attack ads, but nothing else.