OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

O'Connor was just on Hardball

And Matthews was incredibly disrespectful.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

[libertpaulian]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

Maybe the Dems had a worse decline yesterday.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

Maybe the Dems had a worse decline yesterday.

True, but the trajectory makes it crystal clear the Dems aren't clearing 60% at the end of early voting.  Putting it at Likely R for now, perhaps Solid R if it drops to 59% at the end, Lean R at the 60-61 range.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout isnt gonna be that great, that's why these trends are holding

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can an Ohio expert tell me if the partisan breakdown is indicative? I know of even districts in West Virginia or SWPA that are nominally still Demosaur counties. Are the Northern Columbus Metro areas ancestrally Dem or GOP?

[Zaybay]

Can an Ohio expert tell me if the partisan breakdown is indicative? I know of even districts in West Virginia or SWPA that are nominally still Demosaur counties. Are the Northern Columbus Metro areas ancestrally Dem or GOP?

'

This is an ancestral R stronghold. Thats personally why I think these numbers are so surprising. Even though most voters are registered R, the Ds are still holding a large majority.

We also dont know the exact margin O'Connor needs to win. It could be 60, since thats what most statewide runners need, but this is ancestral R, and a district with an R lean, so, I dunno.

[Ebsy]

The Dem vote share has fluctuated up and down over the course of early voting... also there has been only one person who has made a claim on what share the Democrat "needs".

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Early votes still look good... hope it holds.

[BuckeyeNut]

Can an Ohio expert tell me if the partisan breakdown is indicative? I know of even districts in West Virginia or SWPA that are nominally still Demosaur counties. Are the Northern Columbus Metro areas ancestrally Dem or GOP?

Very ancrestrally Republican. That said, these numbers are hard to gauge due to our strange regostratio status. If this was a GE, I’d say these numbers are wuite good as there a number of people who are still registered R’s from the 2016 Presidential primaries, but anyone who voted in the Gubernatorial prinaries this year has gone back to their proper party, and IDK who votes in a Presidential prjmary, skips a Gubernatorial primary, and then votes early for a special election.

That said, a 35% EV lead is very strong, and Independents in this environment probably break more for O’Connor than Balderson. (Though some of them are Greens.) The margin will narrow and right now we’re probably at around 7% of total votes cast. If the early vote ends up accounting for around 35% of the total votes cast and maintains a margin in excess of 20%, O’Connor has a very real shot at winning.

[Ebsy]

I have contacted Morrow County for an update so hopefully I should have more up to date data there soon.

[Ebsy]

Since people were wondering about it, I matched partisanship from early voters so far in Licking County back to the 2016 primary and found some interesting results:



Essentially, just 4% of all ballot returns in Licking County have been from current Democrats who voted in the GOP primary in 2016, comprising 8.3% of Democratic ballots. I may look at other counties in the future, but I see no reason for Licking County to be particularly anomalous. Also, speculatively, the high share of partisan loyalty suggests that there are probably very few early voters, Democrats or Republicans, crossing the aisle and voting for the other party's candidate.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’d check Franklin County, which actually had more Republican primary voters than Democrats in 2016 despite being one of the most Democratic counties in the state. (And many of the Republicans who left the party in Ohio are likely going to be in the OH-12 portion of Franklin County.)

[Ebsy]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

[Ebsy]

Okay bud.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a GOP seat, this isn't a Democratic seat, otherwise the Early vote would be rising.

[Ebsy]

Thank you for that insightful analysis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was letting the audience know that, its gerrymandered to reflect GOP voters.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

You seriously are on a quest to be more annoying than Limo

[Landslide Lyndon]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

You seriously are on a quest to be more annoying than Limo

I, and many others I believe, have this joker on ignore. So please don't quote his posts.

[ON Progressive]

Reminder to ignore anything hemorrhofoid posts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

Possible but unlikely.

[Badger]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

It's Limo, duh!

[Badger]

Other simply means that the absentee ballot was cast by someone who has not voted in a party primary or voted in a minor party primary (there has been one Green party absentee voter).

Ah, so Other is actually likely to be first time Ohio voters (or OH-12 voters? would they be "other " if they moved into the district since the last primary they voted in?), rather than actual 3rd party voters?

A shade better for O'Conner if so, as young voters are likely to skew Democratic.