OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Potentially worth noting: Zack Space represented Licking County in Congress from '07 - '11 and won his share both times.

[Gass3268]

Interesting numbers from Dave Wasserman:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1021473508512210944

[Ebsy]

Here is today's update. I'll be trying to get an update from Morrow County at some point this week. Also, there have been small inconsistencies with Marion County's data but hopefully they should be worked out at this point:

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I do not profess to know enough about Ohio or this district to have an answer to that question.

I hope I'm not the only one here who remembers when Flawless Beautiful Ossoff was up 80-20% in the early vote results.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much in early voting numbers at this point. EV looked great for Democrats in both 2014 and 2016, and we all know how it ended.

Yea I remember the so called experts being very bullish on Democrats in Florida in 2016.

[Zaybay]

Here is today's update. I'll be trying to get an update from Morrow County at some point this week. Also, there have been small inconsistencies with Marion County's data but hopefully they should be worked out at this point:

Dems overall decrease, Reps increase, by around 2%. For O'Connor to win, he needs to stay above 60% overall and win each county by these margins.

Franklin: 65%
Delaware: 48%
Licking: 41%
Richland: 41%
Muskingum: 41%
Morrow: 29%
Marion: 30%

So far, hes doing it, but its early, and we have no idea how the vote is actually going. I think the others and a bit of reps are voting for O'Connor(this is by registration), but thats just me.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Was today a big vote dump?

[Ebsy]

I think something to watch over the next 12 days of absentee voting is what Franklin County's share of it ends up being. Currently it is sitting at 42%, despite the fact that Franklin County only contains 28% of the district's population. Delaware is sitting at 26% and Licking at 15.7%, compared tot  he 27% and 21% of the electorate they usually amount to. Franklin was 32% of the electorate in 2016 but they are certainly punching even above that at this point.

[Ebsy]

Was today a big vote dump?

Yes, relative to previous days, just under 1300 votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor won't get 48% in Delaware County.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor won't get 48% in Delaware County.

[DrScholl]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Realistically O'Connor prolly gets mid to high thirties in Muskawhatever county.

[DrScholl]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

So? Being from a particular county doesn't always guarantee a home advantage in this sort of environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Realistically O'Connor prolly gets mid to high thirties in Muskawhatever county.

I don't know why you are pessimistic, Cordray and OConnor need each other. If OConnor wins, it wilk help Cordray and Dems can undo the unfair GOP gerrymandering

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Realistically O'Connor prolly gets mid to high thirties in Muskawhatever county.

I don't know why you are pessimistic, Cordray and OConnor need each other. If OConnor wins, it wilk help Cordray and Dems can undo the unfair GOP gerrymandering

O'Connor won't win. If I am wrong I will be to busy celebrating to care I was wrong which I will freely admit.

[BuckeyeNut]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

So? Being from a particular county doesn't always guarantee a home advantage in this sort of environment.

It doesn't always, but regionalism is very strong in Ohio. O'Connor might do better than the benchmark in Licking, maybe even Richland. But Muskingum would be a jaw-dropping surprise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Realistically O'Connor prolly gets mid to high thirties in Muskawhatever county.

I don't know why you are pessimistic, Cordray and OConnor need each other. If OConnor wins, it wilk help Cordray and Dems can undo the unfair GOP gerrymandering

O'Connor won't win. If I am wrong I will be to busy celebrating to care I was wrong which I will freely admit.

I hope he wins, in an upset

[TJ in Oregon]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

Which is why O'Connor needs to win the early vote by at least 20% to win... and for the rate of early voting to roughly match what it would be for a typical general election in Ohio.

[Zaybay]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

Which is why O'Connor needs to win the early vote by at least 20% to win... and for the rate of early voting to roughly match what it would be for a typical general election in Ohio.

So far, its a margin of 30%. Do you think its likely to go down from here, are go up, or stay the same?

[BuckeyeNut]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

Which is why O'Connor needs to win the early vote by at least 20% to win... and for the rate of early voting to roughly match what it would be for a typical general election in Ohio.

So far, its a margin of 30%. Do you think its likely to go down from here, are go up, or stay the same?

The latest numbers I've seen indicate a 24% lead and it's been doing down from a high of 26%. It should continue to slowly drop down. FTR, early voting matching past record looks like something in between 30% and 40% of the total votes.

So if O'Connor is leading by 20%+ at the end of early voting and somewhere in between 33k and 44k people vote early, he has a path to victory.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

O'Connor was just on Hardball

[Ebsy]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.