2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Assembly Defeats the bill 47-99.

So does this IRC map count as the second map for the purposes of the NY state constitution, given that the legislature must reject plans twice before modifying them?

I don't have the detailed info here, but everyone is maneuvering as if the commission no longer has any authority with the defeat of the map. I think it might have to do with the court's timeframe, but again, IDK.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1762221723946979346?t=WhyIpMgnpzSxeBh...

And the venue Bill passed 39-18 in the Senate,

Notably the Dem floor leader made it clear when gaveling out that the conference is going to be deliberating future action tonight...

[Dan the Roman]

These margins indicate pairing, which means the GOP knows Democrats have the votes for whatever they are doing, and are happy to give them an exact two thirds majority and let people make their kid's game.

[Spectator]

In case there was any doubt a 22-4 plan is the likely outcome, I guess that seals it. Basically NY Dems more than cancel out North Carolina, then add Dem gains in LA and AL and we’re looking at essentially a tied House off the bat.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

[Devils30]

In case there was any doubt a 22-4 plan is the likely outcome, I guess that seals it. Basically NY Dems more than cancel out North Carolina, then add Dem gains in LA and AL and we’re looking at essentially a tied House off the bat.

If Dems go 22-4 in NY and get 4-4 in Wisconsin, we will have 228-207 in favor of Biden with the 2020 results. The median seat will probably then be around Biden +4.3.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

[Gass3268]

In case there was any doubt a 22-4 plan is the likely outcome, I guess that seals it. Basically NY Dems more than cancel out North Carolina, then add Dem gains in LA and AL and we’re looking at essentially a tied House off the bat.

If Dems go 22-4 in NY and get 4-4 in Wisconsin, we will have 228-207 in favor of Biden with the 2020 results. The median seat will probably then be around Biden +4.3.

I'm guessing Wisconsin doesn't have a new map in place until 2026 given the timeline.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

2% of the total district?

[Burke Bro]

Joe Biden must immediately condemn New York democrats. This is blatant electoral hardball and undermines his own message of playing by the rules and upholding democracy.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1762321001944170954
Tweet language isn't 100% clear, but the article says NY-19 would be similar in partisanship to the district that Molinaro won in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Suozzi/Garbarino trade off is just Massapequa for North Amityville, as I suspect, that should get Suozzi up to Biden+10.

Also wonder if the Molinaro trade off comes at Ryan’s expense and drops the latter back down to a single-digit margin? Or they go bold and have him take in more of Rensselaer or even Albany?

[henster]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

Felder is an orthodox Jew and very pro-Israel he just voted for the IRC maps today being the only Dem to do so. I'd say there is a lot of work to be done to get him in the fold.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

Felder is an orthodox Jew and very pro-Israel he just voted for the IRC maps today being the only Dem to do so. I'd say there is a lot of work to be done to get him in the fold.

Then why didn’t he vote down the maps in 2022?

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1762321001944170954
Tweet language isn't 100% clear, but the article says NY-19 would be similar in partisanship to the district that Molinaro won in 2022.

Isn’t this basically exactly what the commission map does? Why go through the hassle

[Dan the Roman]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

Felder is an orthodox Jew and very pro-Israel he just voted for the IRC maps today being the only Dem to do so. I'd say there is a lot of work to be done to get him in the fold.

Then why didn’t he vote down the maps in 2022?

He wasn't the deciding vote.

He is unlikely to kill a map here unless people try and steamroll him.

[Oryxslayer]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

[Gass3268]

Not doing anything to 11 feels like a mistake.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/benj_rosenblatt/status/1762498488468963667?s=46

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/benj_rosenblatt/status/1762498488468963667?s=46

So by shoring up Suozzi, they give Massapequa to Garbarino, Garbarino gives the easternmost part of Brookhaven to LaLota, and LaLota gives parts of Huntington to Suozzi. This makes LaLota's district a point or two redder in the process as well -- I guess they decided the trends on Long Island are too bad to risk going for LaLota as well.

I wonder why they kept Malliotakis intact. Maybe Goldman would've had a fit?

Also surprised by Lawler's district staying the same. Are they confident that they can beat him under the same lines? (and maybe endangering him would also put Pat Ryan in danger since they already made his district a point or so redder so that Molinaro's could get bluer).

[Smash255]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

I'm still in the 3rd and not in the GOP Long Island vote dump the way I was with the maps that was rejected in 2022

[Gass3268]

This map sucks and the Senate/Jefferies needs to fix it.

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1762505742211330211?s=46

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

This map sucks and the Senate/Jefferies needs to fix it.

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1762505742211330211?s=46

This really seems to suggest Democrats are less confident about trends in Long Island and Staten Island and comparatively more optimistic about their chances in the Hudson Valley.