COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

The problem with those statistics for the US is that they don't work with data which is by date of report rather than by date of occurrence. And that means

1. You need states which provide the latter
2. You can only calculate two weeks after

That is what the UK does and all official statistical agencies.

Anyone trying to calculate daily R is not actually trying to estimate R because the data to do so doesn't exist. I say that as someone who worked on this last spring.That is not how any official government agency or statistical agency does it. Ie. France, UK, Germany, Canada, internal US state and CDC ones.

The reason is precisely what you mention.

Take Louisiana

There are no reports on Saturdays or Sundays
Some Parishes only report three days a week. Those days are different. Some report every day.
Parishes have no central recording. For deaths they simply report coroner reports. For cases they report what is notified but it is literally random ladies filling stuff in when they have a chance in many of those places.
Also some testing labs only report at certain times in batches which involve multiple days
Private providers like CVS also tend to not report cases as they come in but rather dump

They then report to the state statistical agency which then publishes.

The problem is on a given day what shows up for new cases are
Two days worth of cases for some parishes.
One day worth for others.
Zero days worth for others.

Which will get you an R that jumps like a yo-yo.

You can account for this, I guess (by adding smooth/lag).
Here's a good source.

https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/

LO has 0.99 (0.68 – 1.3)
NV has 1 (0.81 – 1.2)

Map + 10 states sorting by Rt.

[Dan the Roman]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

The problem with those statistics for the US is that they don't work with data which is by date of report rather than by date of occurrence. And that means

1. You need states which provide the latter
2. You can only calculate two weeks after

That is what the UK does and all official statistical agencies.

Anyone trying to calculate daily R is not actually trying to estimate R because the data to do so doesn't exist. I say that as someone who worked on this last spring.That is not how any official government agency or statistical agency does it. Ie. France, UK, Germany, Canada, internal US state and CDC ones.

The reason is precisely what you mention.

Take Louisiana

There are no reports on Saturdays or Sundays
Some Parishes only report three days a week. Those days are different. Some report every day.
Parishes have no central recording. For deaths they simply report coroner reports. For cases they report what is notified but it is literally random ladies filling stuff in when they have a chance in many of those places.
Also some testing labs only report at certain times in batches which involve multiple days
Private providers like CVS also tend to not report cases as they come in but rather dump

They then report to the state statistical agency which then publishes.

The problem is on a given day what shows up for new cases are
Two days worth of cases for some parishes.
One day worth for others.
Zero days worth for others.

Which will get you an R that jumps like a yo-yo.

You can account for this, I guess (by adding smooth/lag).
Here's a good source.

https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/

LO has 0.99 (0.68 – 1.3)
NV has 1 (0.81 – 1.2)

Map + 10 states sorting by Rt.

So I am pretty sure LA is probably below 1 now. The way covid19 works it either is going up or down. Missouri clearly has been below 1 for some time as has been AR. LA is probably back of the hand(and this me guessstatmating given our data lag) around .95 or so.

I suspect MS is also just above 1, and Florida is likely around it.*

*What complicates matters is that counties/parishes have different growth rates. You can see this in LA even where some of the worst hit parishes in this wave already peaked. Mobile Alabama clearly peaked last week and is well below 1. The problem is it is unclear if that means Alabama as a whole is. Mobile was the worst part of the state and driving the cases, but it may be that outbreak spreads northward as it did in MS and is currently happening in Georgia and South Carolina.

The alarmists here are off in assuming Covid19 will keep going up. It dosen't work that way. But I think where the other side errs is seizing on limited data to declare either outbreaks over before they are(or when only one part is) and/or assuming that this outbreak will be the last. Most of these same areas probably get hit again this winter based on last year and even what we are seeing in India and the UK.

[Skill and Chance]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

[Hammy]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

[DaleCooper]

I was visiting my mom today and she was watching some Today Show segment where they were "just asking questions" about whether the vaccines work or not. I'm convinced the anti-vaccine rhetoric is intended to prolong the pandemic as much as possible, human life be damned.

[Skill and Chance]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there. Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

I hope you are right!  In any event, I do think the NE would have gone back to state-enforced social distancing 2 weeks ago if they were on the same trajectory as Florida.  I believe that would help mitigate the worst case scenario.

Florida is by far the most vaccinated of the 25 Trump states and for % with at least one shot as of today is also ahead of AZ, NV, WI, MN and GA (which has a godawful vax rate not far above LA/MS) and tied with CO.  I don’t think I was being misleading.  Yes, the non-FL red states are mostly lightly populated, but so are VT, HI, ME, etc.  The other big red state, TX, is way less vaccinated.  The fact that a lot of the FL vaccinations happened this month is relevant, I agree, and does give the North more hope. 

[Calthrina950]

I was visiting my mom today and she was watching some Today Show segment where they were "just asking questions" about whether the vaccines work or not. I'm convinced the anti-vaccine rhetoric is intended to prolong the pandemic as much as possible, human life be damned.

Interestingly enough, I saw a story on CBS This Morning earlier this week that was actually fairly balanced. It talked about a black woman in Louisiana whose daughter died from the coronavirus last month. Her daughter had been fully vaccinated and contracted a "breakthrough" case. However, the daughter was obese, and they did talk about how obesity has been one of the underlying conditions which makes someone more susceptible to hospitalization or death from the virus. And the mother urged people to still get vaccinated, despite what happened to her daughter. The journalists shared in that sentiment.

[_.]

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

Indeed, it looks quite suspicious. It always looks like this though, the reason being that Florida only updates weekly now because DeSantis decided we beat COVID back in June, so it wasn't a priority (a defensible decision at the time).

The thing is though that we didn't really defeat COVID, it came back and now during these surges we're sorta missing data for much of the week, which really sucks, because it'd be pretty swell to have it.


Speaking of which, Florida's weekly report for August 13 - August 19, 2021 was just released.

Here's the full update:

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,027,954

JUL 22 - 2,479,975 (+73,199 New Weekly, +3.04%) (15.7% Positivity Rate)
JUL 29 - 2,590,699 (+110,477 New Weekly, +4.45%) (18.8% Positivity Rate)
AUG 05 - 2,725,450 (+134,506 New Weekly, +5.19%) (19.4% Positivity Rate)
AUG 12 - 2,877,214 (+151,514 New Weekly, +5.56%) (19.6% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,954 (+150,118 New Weekly, +5.22%) (19.8% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 42,252

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet (last week the August 12 week had only ~700 deaths, now it's at ~1,000).

Image Link

It looks like we've hit a plateau now, though in terms of cases, it remains to be seen when and how fast deaths will now decline. What really sucks, though, is that they don't break down the data by day, so we don't know exactly when it peaks. Once again, lack of data (screw these guys honestly).

The silver lining here is that the most vulnerable, the elderly, are by and large vaccinated, thankfully. It'd be absolutely horrible if they weren't (in terms of deaths and impact).

This probably is why our death numbers (and likely other death numbers across the U.S.) are gonna be way lower than what you may expect based on the case counts, and also are unlikely to reach December/January levels (which were horrific).

And yeah, everybody here has COVID. I probably got it too earlier lol, luckily it just was a sniffle and I didn't spread it much.


Another thing that I'm sure many of you have been waiting for. Florida's deaths per capita (1,922 per million) has surpassed the total United States number (1,877 per million).

:/

[emailking]

That's 3 days in row over thousand deaths now. (Caveats of course for delaying reporting adjusting things maybe). On the plus side, cases appear to be peaking, around ~150K/day.

[Inmate Trump]

https://www.wsbradio.com/news/local/atlanta/georgia-could-see-highest-covid-19-case-rate-country-by-sept-1/AR53X3YO4BFATAO7R2YLAP7AJ4/


According to this article, a Mayo Clinic study says Georgia will have the highest covid rate by September 1.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

False. VT has highest rate at 67% fully vaccinated vs FL 51%. NY has 58%, and DC has 56%. So FL has similar level comparing with bigger NE states.

Smaller NE states are better, esp if you look at vaccination of older population. Among 65+ VT has 99% (!!), ME has 98% vs Floridas 87%, though slightly better than NY 86% or DC 83%.

I wonder what % of vaccination among medical/nursing home etc personal is. Suspect, that for example NY has higher than FL. Would explain a lot.

Another reasons FL is now hit harder than for instance NY, are climate and that (D) Cuomo already managed to kill grandmas. "Weirdly", it has never really been a big deal among Dem and their media.

If you look at EU, Spain and Portugal that have Florida'ish climate are now in top of vaccination rates and are very good at vaccinating older population (66% of all ages and 92% of 40+ are fully vaccinated, so better than VT) . They've been very strict on useless mask etc, still they are now hit (death per capita) ~20 times harder than Scandinavia that followed science and barely use masks at all.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker

[Person Man]

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

Indeed, it looks quite suspicious. It always looks like this though, the reason being that Florida only updates weekly now because DeSantis decided we beat COVID back in June, so it wasn't a priority (a defensible decision at the time).

The thing is though that we didn't really defeat COVID, it came back and now during these surges we're sorta missing data for much of the week, which really sucks, because it'd be pretty swell to have it.


Speaking of which, Florida's weekly report for August 13 - August 19, 2021 was just released.

Here's the full update:

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,027,954

JUL 22 - 2,479,975 (+73,199 New Weekly, +3.04%) (15.7% Positivity Rate)
JUL 29 - 2,590,699 (+110,477 New Weekly, +4.45%) (18.8% Positivity Rate)
AUG 05 - 2,725,450 (+134,506 New Weekly, +5.19%) (19.4% Positivity Rate)
AUG 12 - 2,877,214 (+151,514 New Weekly, +5.56%) (19.6% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,954 (+150,118 New Weekly, +5.22%) (19.8% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 42,252

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet (last week the August 12 week had only ~700 deaths, now it's at ~1,000).

Image Link

It looks like we've hit a plateau now, though in terms of cases, it remains to be seen when and how fast deaths will now decline. What really sucks, though, is that they don't break down the data by day, so we don't know exactly when it peaks. Once again, lack of data (screw these guys honestly).

The silver lining here is that the most vulnerable, the elderly, are by and large vaccinated, thankfully. It'd be absolutely horrible if they weren't (in terms of deaths and impact).

This probably is why our death numbers (and likely other death numbers across the U.S.) are gonna be way lower than what you may expect based on the case counts, and also are unlikely to reach December/January levels (which were horrific).

And yeah, everybody here has COVID. I probably got it too earlier lol, luckily it just was a sniffle and I didn't spread it much.


Another thing that I'm sure many of you have been waiting for. Florida's deaths per capita (1,922 per million) has surpassed the total United States number (1,877 per million).

:/

The lack of transparency is really ironic but it isn't when you see that a lot of these Elite Republican politicians being trained at Ivy League schools where there are a lot of professors from places like China or Vietnam, where there is an instilment of Confucian Values. That alone accounts for quite a bit for how Republicans behave. The entire Confucian ethos actually fits in well with Western philosophies surrounding things nationalism and very vertical social and economic hierarchies.

[Person Man]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

False. VT has highest rate at 67% fully vaccinated vs FL 51%. NY has 58%, and DC has 56%. So FL has similar level comparing with bigger NE states.

Smaller NE states are better, esp if you look at vaccination of older population. Among 65+ VT has 99% (!!), ME has 98% vs Floridas 87%, though slightly better than NY 86% or DC 83%.

I wonder what % of vaccination among medical/nursing home etc personal is. Suspect, that for example NY has higher than FL. Would explain a lot.

Another reasons FL is now hit harder than for instance NY, are climate and that (D) Cuomo already managed to kill grandmas. "Weirdly", it has never really been a big deal among Dem and their media.

If you look at EU, Spain and Portugal that have Florida'ish climate are now in top of vaccination rates and are very good at vaccinating older population (66% of all ages and 92% of 40+ are fully vaccinated, so better than VT) . They've been very strict on useless mask etc, still they are now hit (death per capita) ~20 times harder than Scandinavia that followed science and barely use masks at all.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker

I'll agree that climate would explain a lot of the original dynamic. However, it only really appears to be an obstacle at first. Brazil and India have climates like Miami and they started out OK but not now are taking in the whole thing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The lack of transparency is really ironic but it isn't when you see that a lot of these Elite Republican politicians being trained at Ivy League schools where there are a lot of professors from places like China or Vietnam, where there is an instilment of Confucian Values. That alone accounts for quite a bit for how Republicans behave. The entire Confucian ethos actually fits in well with Western philosophies surrounding things nationalism and very vertical social and economic hierarchies.

Uhm. I pretty sure that FL had one of the best data reporting. Until lately that is, which is unfortunate. But even now there is no really lack of transparency, but lag. I don't really see why an additional week of lag is that big of problem.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

False. VT has highest rate at 67% fully vaccinated vs FL 51%. NY has 58%, and DC has 56%. So FL has similar level comparing with bigger NE states.

Smaller NE states are better, esp if you look at vaccination of older population. Among 65+ VT has 99% (!!), ME has 98% vs Floridas 87%, though slightly better than NY 86% or DC 83%.

I wonder what % of vaccination among medical/nursing home etc personal is. Suspect, that for example NY has higher than FL. Would explain a lot.

Another reasons FL is now hit harder than for instance NY, are climate and that (D) Cuomo already managed to kill grandmas. "Weirdly", it has never really been a big deal among Dem and their media.

If you look at EU, Spain and Portugal that have Florida'ish climate are now in top of vaccination rates and are very good at vaccinating older population (66% of all ages and 92% of 40+ are fully vaccinated, so better than VT) . They've been very strict on useless mask etc, still they are now hit (death per capita) ~20 times harder than Scandinavia that followed science and barely use masks at all.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker

I'll agree that climate would explain a lot of the original dynamic. However, it only really appears to be an obstacle at first. Brazil and India have climates like Miami and they started out OK but not now are taking in the whole thing.

US and Western Europe are much more similar. There is no doubt that Covid is seasonal, probably depending on people being outside/inside.

The other reason of Portugal/Spain's fall is the re-opening of turism. Forget to mention it. Don't know much about turism in US, though.

[Dan the Roman]

Florida does not try and measure residents just shots. That means actual vaccination rates are likely much lower, especially for older folks because those shots began in the winter when a lot of North Easterners were down. My parents got both shots in Florida but are not in the state currently.

Florida counts shots/population to get their numbers but if shots are from 180% of the actual state population, they are greatly increasing the rate.

A good comparison may well be teenagers. Florida has had a huge push to vaccinate them but the rates are still below Texas. That implies that Florida's actual numbers may be closer to Texas, or perhaps a bit below which would explain a lot.

If Florida's actual on the ground numbers this summer are not 62/51 but 52/41 or so it would make a huge difference.

[DINGO Joe]

Florida does not try and measure residents just shots. That means actual vaccination rates are likely much lower, especially for older folks because those shots began in the winter when a lot of North Easterners were down. My parents got both shots in Florida but are not in the state currently.

Florida counts shots/population to get their numbers but if shots are from 180% of the actual state population, they are greatly increasing the rate.

A good comparison may well be teenagers. Florida has had a huge push to vaccinate them but the rates are still below Texas. That implies that Florida's actual numbers may be closer to Texas, or perhaps a bit below which would explain a lot.

If Florida's actual on the ground numbers this summer are not 62/51 but 52/41 or so it would make a huge difference.

Don't know how wide spread this is either, but I noticed that more than one group of the victims in the condo collapse were South Americans who were vacationing but also in the US to get their shots--vaccine tourism.

[Person Man]

The lack of transparency is really ironic but it isn't when you see that a lot of these Elite Republican politicians being trained at Ivy League schools where there are a lot of professors from places like China or Vietnam, where there is an instilment of Confucian Values. That alone accounts for quite a bit for how Republicans behave. The entire Confucian ethos actually fits in well with Western philosophies surrounding things nationalism and very vertical social and economic hierarchies.

Uhm. I pretty sure that FL had one of the best data reporting. Until lately that is, which is unfortunate. But even now there is no really lack of transparency, but lag. I don't really see why an additional week of lag is that big of problem.

That, of course, has become a bigger matter of opinion.

[Person Man]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

False. VT has highest rate at 67% fully vaccinated vs FL 51%. NY has 58%, and DC has 56%. So FL has similar level comparing with bigger NE states.

Smaller NE states are better, esp if you look at vaccination of older population. Among 65+ VT has 99% (!!), ME has 98% vs Floridas 87%, though slightly better than NY 86% or DC 83%.

I wonder what % of vaccination among medical/nursing home etc personal is. Suspect, that for example NY has higher than FL. Would explain a lot.

Another reasons FL is now hit harder than for instance NY, are climate and that (D) Cuomo already managed to kill grandmas. "Weirdly", it has never really been a big deal among Dem and their media.

If you look at EU, Spain and Portugal that have Florida'ish climate are now in top of vaccination rates and are very good at vaccinating older population (66% of all ages and 92% of 40+ are fully vaccinated, so better than VT) . They've been very strict on useless mask etc, still they are now hit (death per capita) ~20 times harder than Scandinavia that followed science and barely use masks at all.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker

I'll agree that climate would explain a lot of the original dynamic. However, it only really appears to be an obstacle at first. Brazil and India have climates like Miami and they started out OK but not now are taking in the whole thing.

US and Western Europe are much more similar. There is no doubt that Covid is seasonal, probably depending on people being outside/inside.

The other reason of Portugal/Spain's fall is the re-opening of turism. Forget to mention it. Don't know much about turism in US, though.

It gets waaayyy hotter and colder in the NE and MW than in Europe. The South probably has similar winters to Europe but way hotter in the summer though Emilia Romagna felt just like Northern Florida when I was there for a weekend road trip for cheap dental work in Hungary.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida does not try and measure residents just shots. That means actual vaccination rates are likely much lower, especially for older folks because those shots began in the winter when a lot of North Easterners were down. My parents got both shots in Florida but are not in the state currently.

Florida counts shots/population to get their numbers but if shots are from 180% of the actual state population, they are greatly increasing the rate.

A good comparison may well be teenagers. Florida has had a huge push to vaccinate them but the rates are still below Texas. That implies that Florida's actual numbers may be closer to Texas, or perhaps a bit below which would explain a lot.

If Florida's actual on the ground numbers this summer are not 62/51 but 52/41 or so it would make a huge difference.

Is this reporting practice unique to Florida?

[Matty]

What on earth is going on in Hawaii?

Very good vax rate, populated by cautious Asians.

Hospitalizations soaring daily to new records

[Inmate Trump]

I keep reading reports about more and more severe case among fully vaccinated people.

Not like “many people are saying…”

Just different things, from celebs and other people I personally know or acquaintances/friends/family of people that I know.

[Dan the Roman]

Florida does not try and measure residents just shots. That means actual vaccination rates are likely much lower, especially for older folks because those shots began in the winter when a lot of North Easterners were down. My parents got both shots in Florida but are not in the state currently.

Florida counts shots/population to get their numbers but if shots are from 180% of the actual state population, they are greatly increasing the rate.

A good comparison may well be teenagers. Florida has had a huge push to vaccinate them but the rates are still below Texas. That implies that Florida's actual numbers may be closer to Texas, or perhaps a bit below which would explain a lot.

If Florida's actual on the ground numbers this summer are not 62/51 but 52/41 or so it would make a huge difference.

Is this reporting practice unique to Florida?

No though some states separate them out
https://www.covid19.nh.gov/dashboard/vaccination

Overall though the US generally is bad at tracking anything other than the shots given and where they were given. I strongly suspect several states(PA,IL) are classifying any shots which are not explicitly flagged as second as additional first ones given how large the gap is and how slowly it is moving.

It is (speculatively) probably more of a problem in Florida given when the major vaccination periods were(January-March when Northern transplants were around)(summer when international travel opened up for people to come in) and the skewed county results. We don't really know because Florida isn't particularly interested in telling anyone and in this case I suspect it is less DeSantis and more tracking this would be hard.

But I do know from February that for Florida proving residence involved:
Having proof of address which could be a rental of at least four weeks

Whereas New Hampshire required either drivers license, or bills/deed etc. Ie. renting a condo for four weeks made one count as a Florida resident for state statistical purposes(at least in Nassau county) whereas other states had much higher standards involving actually being resident in the state.

I think it is worth comparing Florida even to Louisiana or Alabama or South Carolina. New Orleans, Charleston, and Huntsville, all with around 51-52% two shots are by and large resisting this surge and at about 60% of their statewide rate of cases and barely blips on deaths. Miami-Dade on paper is at 64%. It is performing much worse than areas with 52% in states with serious outbreaks. That implies either something unique about the weather in Miami v. New Orleans or Huntsville or Charleston or that 64% of Miami residents really have not received two shots.

[emailking]

I keep reading reports about more and more severe case among fully vaccinated people.

Not like “many people are saying…”

Just different things, from celebs and other people I personally know or acquaintances/friends/family of people that I know.

What celeb was fully vaccinated and had a severe case?

[GP270watch]

I keep reading reports about more and more severe case among fully vaccinated people.

Not like “many people are saying…”

Just different things, from celebs and other people I personally know or acquaintances/friends/family of people that I know.

 
What celeb was fully vaccinated and had a severe case?

 Sabrina The Teenage Witch, the original one claims she got really sick but I don't think she was hospitalized or anything.