2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Something like that... I've also been seeing that its more likely than not Dems make a net gain in the house.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.

What? This is Iowa's most Democratic district.

[lfromnj]

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.

What? This is Iowa's most Democratic district.

?
All 3 districts are equally D.

[Gracile]

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.

What? This is Iowa's most Democratic district.

If we're going strictly off of the 2016 presidential margin, then IA-02 is more Republican than IA-01 and IA-03 (although they're all within a point of each other). It also voted marginally to the right of IA-03 in last year's gubernatorial election and voted to the right of IA-01 in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

So no, it is not the "most Democratic district" by those metrics.

[Mr.Phips]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping. 

Cartwright?  Biden probably carries that district if he is the nominee.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-07: Former Sen. Max Cleland changes his endorsement from Bourdeaux to Karinshak.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping.  

Cartwright?  Biden probably carries that district if he is the nominee.

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

[Brittain33]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

We're talking about Presidential politics here, so yes, sure.

[Gracile]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

We're talking about Presidential politics here, so yes, sure.

There are plenty of people here who think Biden will lose PA-08. Not to mention, PA-08 and TX-07 are entirely different districts with entirely different demographic profiles so it's pretty stupid to make that comparison.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

We're talking about Presidential politics here, so yes, sure.

There are plenty of people here who think Biden will lose PA-08. Not to mention, PA-08 and TX-07 are entirely different districts with entirely different demographic profiles so it's pretty stupid to make that comparison.

Why is it so stupid?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1213211116484079616

NY-19 : Molinaro won't run, a big recruitment failure to say the least

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1213211116484079616

NY-19 : Molinaro won't run, a big recruitment failure to say the least

Who would want to be in the House minority during the age of Trump? Molinaro is smart.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1213211116484079616

NY-19 : Molinaro won't run, a big recruitment failure to say the least

Huge blow to the GOP here. Although NY-19 should be one of their high priority seats, many Republicans were hoping that Molinaro would jump in and become a formidable challenger to Rep. Delgado.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A bit late, but YouGov has the Generic Ballot at D+10.

Pelosi approval is only -4

Dem congressional approval is -5

GOP congressional approval is -20

Safe to say impeachment hasn't put a dent in Democrats' chances of holding the house. At least according to YouGov.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2r6hyqtv9p/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Haley Stevens (MI-11) raised $550K in the 4th Q

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1213591872440020998?s=21

[wbrocks67]

Impeachment vote certainly helped! WOW:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1214178773333094400

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1214149160426975232?s=20

[Gracile]

A few other fundraising figures:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1214203474474344450

[Frenchrepublican]

Some datas from a conservative PAC.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A few other fundraising figures:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1214203474474344450

So many marks, so little time.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Impeachment vote certainly helped! WOW:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1214178773333094400

That might be more than Michael Bennet raised for President lol

[Gracile]

Here is a roundup of fundraising numbers from today, courtesy of DailyKos:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1214299372730621952

[Gracile]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

[Frenchrepublican]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah